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144 responses to “An August election?”

  1. john

    Glenn Milne reckons it’s going to be an August election, so I think it probably won’t be.

  2. john

    Glenn Milne reckons it’s going to be an August election, so I think it probably won’t be.

  3. Mark

    Update: According to Barrie Cassidy, the Coalition have been coming up with some policy ideas. Whether they’re policy ideas or thought bubbles and stunts, though, is another question.

  4. Mark

    Update: According to Barrie Cassidy, the Coalition have been coming up with some policy ideas. Whether they’re policy ideas or thought bubbles and stunts, though, is another question.

  5. thedullfig

    Mark, I don’t think it matters when the election happens. I think the Labor Party is gone. I’m not happy about it and I hope I’m wrong. I can remember thinking John Howard would never win government in 1996. I won’t be so silly this time.

  6. thedullfig

    Mark, I don’t think it matters when the election happens. I think the Labor Party is gone. I’m not happy about it and I hope I’m wrong. I can remember thinking John Howard would never win government in 1996. I won’t be so silly this time.

  7. Mercurius

    Rumours persist that an early August election will be called early in July.

    Teehee. It certainly will be an early August election if it’s in July! 😛

  8. Mercurius

    Rumours persist that an early August election will be called early in July.

    Teehee. It certainly will be an early August election if it’s in July! 😛

  9. hannah's dad

    So in the very near future we can expect Murdoch’s minions to accuse Rudd of cowardice/fear/unwilling to face the people/indecision and so on every day an election is not called.
    I sense the beginning of yet another smear element in their campaign.
    Get ready for the mother of all negative media campaigns when the election is finally announced.

  10. hannah's dad

    So in the very near future we can expect Murdoch’s minions to accuse Rudd of cowardice/fear/unwilling to face the people/indecision and so on every day an election is not called.
    I sense the beginning of yet another smear element in their campaign.
    Get ready for the mother of all negative media campaigns when the election is finally announced.

  11. Fran Barlow

    I’m still with my prediction of an early August election. It makes sense in terms of a number of timelines (see Anthony Green who has added weight to this) and it would also beat the Gillard task force report on the BER.

    Rudd could still call a DD then of course.

  12. Fran Barlow

    I’m still with my prediction of an early August election. It makes sense in terms of a number of timelines (see Anthony Green who has added weight to this) and it would also beat the Gillard task force report on the BER.

    Rudd could still call a DD then of course.

  13. john

    @2

    Barrie Cassidy is a fucking rat.

  14. john

    @2

    Barrie Cassidy is a fucking rat.

  15. Kathrine Alexander

    http://www.unitedstatespolitical.com/election/rising-incomes-may-help-democrats-avert-2010-election-debacle.html
    Gross domestic product is also predicted to edge up by 0.5 percent in the three months ending September, after contracting in the past three quarters, and continue improving in the fourth quarter and next year. “If economic growth picks up reasonably well starting in the first quarter of 2010, then that would be a plus for the Democrats in Congress,” says Ray Fair, a Yale University economist whose forecasting model has called the top vote-getter in the last three presidential races.

  16. Kathrine Alexander

    http://www.unitedstatespolitical.com/election/rising-incomes-may-help-democrats-avert-2010-election-debacle.html
    Gross domestic product is also predicted to edge up by 0.5 percent in the three months ending September, after contracting in the past three quarters, and continue improving in the fourth quarter and next year. “If economic growth picks up reasonably well starting in the first quarter of 2010, then that would be a plus for the Democrats in Congress,” says Ray Fair, a Yale University economist whose forecasting model has called the top vote-getter in the last three presidential races.

  17. grace pettigrew

    The Rudd Government has to wait a bit for Big Dirt to pay off News Ltd and the Liberal Party with a goodly portion of that rumoured $100M bucket of money for anti-government advertising. The Government has to hold onto most of its little $38M bucket of advertising money to allow for maximum impact just before the election is called. Big Dirt is blanketing the media with anti-government advertising right now, while government advertising is sparse by comparison. How long before the balance tips? Election guessing is great sport, and watching the money flows sometimes points the way.

  18. grace pettigrew

    The Rudd Government has to wait a bit for Big Dirt to pay off News Ltd and the Liberal Party with a goodly portion of that rumoured $100M bucket of money for anti-government advertising. The Government has to hold onto most of its little $38M bucket of advertising money to allow for maximum impact just before the election is called. Big Dirt is blanketing the media with anti-government advertising right now, while government advertising is sparse by comparison. How long before the balance tips? Election guessing is great sport, and watching the money flows sometimes points the way.

  19. Robert Merkel

    Stunts, the both of them.

    Mind you, aside from substantive policy Kevin07 had the odd stunt (Grocery Choice, FuelWatch). The difference is that unlike Kevin07’s stunts, a debt limit has the possibility to be actually harmful; if the limit is too loose, it’s meaningless, if it’s too tight, governments will either resort to Greece-style schemes to get around it, or be forced to conduct actively counterproductive mass sackings when times get tough.

    Employee share schemes? Meh.

  20. Robert Merkel

    Stunts, the both of them.

    Mind you, aside from substantive policy Kevin07 had the odd stunt (Grocery Choice, FuelWatch). The difference is that unlike Kevin07’s stunts, a debt limit has the possibility to be actually harmful; if the limit is too loose, it’s meaningless, if it’s too tight, governments will either resort to Greece-style schemes to get around it, or be forced to conduct actively counterproductive mass sackings when times get tough.

    Employee share schemes? Meh.

  21. adrian

    Barry Cassidy just signed the normal employment contract when he joined the ABC:

    Clause 14 -a) I will campaign relentlessly for the coalition and always put a negative spin on the Labor Party, whether in government or opposition.

    b) Notwithstanding the undertaking 14(a) I will attempt to maintain the pretense of impartiality as much as possible, except if appearing on The Insiders where all bets are off.

  22. adrian

    Barry Cassidy just signed the normal employment contract when he joined the ABC:

    Clause 14 -a) I will campaign relentlessly for the coalition and always put a negative spin on the Labor Party, whether in government or opposition.

    b) Notwithstanding the undertaking 14(a) I will attempt to maintain the pretense of impartiality as much as possible, except if appearing on The Insiders where all bets are off.

  23. Lloyd

    LOL. Barrie Cassidy has become a bigger shill than Dennis or Matthew.

    ‘Legislating against debt’ is one policy thought bubble he passes over with nary a comment.

    One can only assume that make him as dumb as the party he’s spruiking.

    Do these people learn NOTHING from recent history…….

  24. Lloyd

    LOL. Barrie Cassidy has become a bigger shill than Dennis or Matthew.

    ‘Legislating against debt’ is one policy thought bubble he passes over with nary a comment.

    One can only assume that make him as dumb as the party he’s spruiking.

    Do these people learn NOTHING from recent history…….

  25. Cuppa

    New slogan about Cassidy – “Can The Cass!”

  26. Cuppa

    New slogan about Cassidy – “Can The Cass!”

  27. dave

    August? What no election during the football finals? And while it’s notionally still cold? I suppose all of that might encourage a few people to think about what they are voting for but I doubt the Libs will be caught napping, they can read big bad barrie too and one suspects their friends in the MSM are capable of keeping up the anti-labor crusade for as long as it takes.

    However Mark I suspect you might be right, and it would certainly change the dynamics of the current media narrative. The Gillard question disappears because there is no chance the Libs will focus on Gillard whose popularity seems disproportionate to her achievements and then there is a strong chance labor starts campaigning on the mining tax as well as some new carbon reduction scheme. Frankly I think the mining tax should be easy for labor to sell but their reputation on global warming is a tad tarnished.

    should labor actually win I won’t be accepting any bets they will do better next time round unless they and the greens win the senate.

  28. dave

    August? What no election during the football finals? And while it’s notionally still cold? I suppose all of that might encourage a few people to think about what they are voting for but I doubt the Libs will be caught napping, they can read big bad barrie too and one suspects their friends in the MSM are capable of keeping up the anti-labor crusade for as long as it takes.

    However Mark I suspect you might be right, and it would certainly change the dynamics of the current media narrative. The Gillard question disappears because there is no chance the Libs will focus on Gillard whose popularity seems disproportionate to her achievements and then there is a strong chance labor starts campaigning on the mining tax as well as some new carbon reduction scheme. Frankly I think the mining tax should be easy for labor to sell but their reputation on global warming is a tad tarnished.

    should labor actually win I won’t be accepting any bets they will do better next time round unless they and the greens win the senate.

  29. Flynnboy

    Howard may have scraped back in after the introduction of the GST but he was not facing such a venemously malevolent media nor a massively funded campaign by billionaire mine bosses and multinational companies with almost bottomless pockets.

    I have seen two government ads for the RSPT (one on tv, one in the paper) – both were absolutely pathetic.

    The mining companies ads I have seen a plethora of, dominating the papers and electronic media. They are very good. They remind of the ads that the unions used so effectively against workchoices – emotion-grabbing, clear, simple, to the point and above all, FRIGHTENING. The actors look so sincere that they really appear to believe what they are saying.

    I fear for the future, sorry to say.

  30. Flynnboy

    Howard may have scraped back in after the introduction of the GST but he was not facing such a venemously malevolent media nor a massively funded campaign by billionaire mine bosses and multinational companies with almost bottomless pockets.

    I have seen two government ads for the RSPT (one on tv, one in the paper) – both were absolutely pathetic.

    The mining companies ads I have seen a plethora of, dominating the papers and electronic media. They are very good. They remind of the ads that the unions used so effectively against workchoices – emotion-grabbing, clear, simple, to the point and above all, FRIGHTENING. The actors look so sincere that they really appear to believe what they are saying.

    I fear for the future, sorry to say.

  31. Cuppa

    I have seen two government ads for the RSPT

    I recall with incandescence the campaign the ABC (and others, I’m sure) ran against the government even doing this bit of advertising. For nigh on a week every ABC “News” bulletin was headed by quotes of Liberals “slamming” this government campaign.

    It’s bloody easy to see which side the ABC is taking.

  32. Cuppa

    I have seen two government ads for the RSPT

    I recall with incandescence the campaign the ABC (and others, I’m sure) ran against the government even doing this bit of advertising. For nigh on a week every ABC “News” bulletin was headed by quotes of Liberals “slamming” this government campaign.

    It’s bloody easy to see which side the ABC is taking.

  33. Labor Outsider

    Robert, fiscal rules including public debt ceilings are a perfectly reasonable tool for governments trying to signal a credible committment to long-term sustainable public finances. They should ordinarily be set at the level beyond which the government would begin to have concerns about the sustainability of finances and also unduly crowd out private investment.

    However, in the Australian context this is a stunt. Australia’s public finances are in very good shape and current and expected future public debt levels in Australia are well below what most economists would regard as sustainable.

  34. Labor Outsider

    Robert, fiscal rules including public debt ceilings are a perfectly reasonable tool for governments trying to signal a credible committment to long-term sustainable public finances. They should ordinarily be set at the level beyond which the government would begin to have concerns about the sustainability of finances and also unduly crowd out private investment.

    However, in the Australian context this is a stunt. Australia’s public finances are in very good shape and current and expected future public debt levels in Australia are well below what most economists would regard as sustainable.

  35. john

    @14

    Howard didn’t face a hostile media, but Hawke, Keating and Whitlam did. They all won reelection because people trust journalists less than they trust politicians in this country. There was an Essential Research question on it, and 53% of people don’t trust them.

  36. john

    @14

    Howard didn’t face a hostile media, but Hawke, Keating and Whitlam did. They all won reelection because people trust journalists less than they trust politicians in this country. There was an Essential Research question on it, and 53% of people don’t trust them.

  37. Barbara

    I’ve seen the mining industry ads – and they treat me like I’m an idiot!! They should pay more tax – god knows they make enough money – and are taking every resource they can sell out of the ground. Once its gone – its gone! And I don’t like CEO clowns running round in worker wear pretending they know what they average worker thinks!

  38. Barbara

    I’ve seen the mining industry ads – and they treat me like I’m an idiot!! They should pay more tax – god knows they make enough money – and are taking every resource they can sell out of the ground. Once its gone – its gone! And I don’t like CEO clowns running round in worker wear pretending they know what they average worker thinks!

  39. JimmyD

    Flynn – I live in the marginal seat of Paterson, and I’ve seen the same ad twice, both times late at night. It is really quite ordinary and completely lacks information or even a half-decent emotional appeal. It starts with a man who looks and sounds like a city-slicker attempting to tough-it-up in the outback, pretending he’s a hard-working miner who’s battling to make ends meet. He then proclaims in monotone that mining has kept the country strong. Then he walks around his conspicuously clean Mosman Car(or Toorak Tractor)and it makes a silly transition from the outback to the Sydney CBD where he promptly claims that the mining tax will impact everyone. It is such weak tosh that I’m surprised the miners have been getting as much traction as they have. If this half-baked ad is the best the miners can do in the marginal area of the Liberal 5th most marginal seat, then I think Rudd is safe for the moment.

  40. JimmyD

    Flynn – I live in the marginal seat of Paterson, and I’ve seen the same ad twice, both times late at night. It is really quite ordinary and completely lacks information or even a half-decent emotional appeal. It starts with a man who looks and sounds like a city-slicker attempting to tough-it-up in the outback, pretending he’s a hard-working miner who’s battling to make ends meet. He then proclaims in monotone that mining has kept the country strong. Then he walks around his conspicuously clean Mosman Car(or Toorak Tractor)and it makes a silly transition from the outback to the Sydney CBD where he promptly claims that the mining tax will impact everyone. It is such weak tosh that I’m surprised the miners have been getting as much traction as they have. If this half-baked ad is the best the miners can do in the marginal area of the Liberal 5th most marginal seat, then I think Rudd is safe for the moment.

  41. Flynnboy

    Was the level of anti-government propaganda this intense and so thoroughly dominant in the mainstream media message though john?

    If over half the country doesn’t trust them then they are certainly doing a very good job of influencing public opinion.

    I would hope that Rudd can do a Whitlam, Hawke and Keating but I just don’t know…….

  42. Flynnboy

    Was the level of anti-government propaganda this intense and so thoroughly dominant in the mainstream media message though john?

    If over half the country doesn’t trust them then they are certainly doing a very good job of influencing public opinion.

    I would hope that Rudd can do a Whitlam, Hawke and Keating but I just don’t know…….

  43. Flynnboy

    We must have seen different ads JimmyD.

    I live in a mining area – the marginal seat of Flynn – and though I’m not sure how much impact the companies campaign is having here, it isn’t here that the election will be decided.

  44. Flynnboy

    We must have seen different ads JimmyD.

    I live in a mining area – the marginal seat of Flynn – and though I’m not sure how much impact the companies campaign is having here, it isn’t here that the election will be decided.

  45. Mangrove Jack

    “One little noticed facet of the recent onslaught on the government has been the virtual disappearance of Tony Abbott.”
    Today might be the day when Tony’s minders suddenly realised that Abbott has super-glued his tongue to Big Dirt’s arsehole, and that when we-the-people work out that Mitch Hooke’s hysterical, and increasingly desperate tirade against a democratically elected government is nothing but a ruthless pursuit of self-interest, founded on lies and fear, then it will be all over for Abbott and the Liberals.
    I hope that Rudd takes the advice of his backbenchers and books some prime time for a fireside chat to explain the RSPT, then follows up by offering Abbott equal time to respond. The more Abbott identifies with the Minerals Council (if that’s possible) the better.
    When this thing turns around for Labor, as it must, then Abbott will be stuffed.
    PS john @ 6.43pm…speak your mind son ! And let’s not stop with Cassidy on the Insiders, it’s seems to be the whole ABC starting with Fran Kelly every morning at 6.30am then right through the day. If it wasn’t for the Internet and the blogosphere it would be quite depressing.

  46. Mangrove Jack

    “One little noticed facet of the recent onslaught on the government has been the virtual disappearance of Tony Abbott.”
    Today might be the day when Tony’s minders suddenly realised that Abbott has super-glued his tongue to Big Dirt’s arsehole, and that when we-the-people work out that Mitch Hooke’s hysterical, and increasingly desperate tirade against a democratically elected government is nothing but a ruthless pursuit of self-interest, founded on lies and fear, then it will be all over for Abbott and the Liberals.
    I hope that Rudd takes the advice of his backbenchers and books some prime time for a fireside chat to explain the RSPT, then follows up by offering Abbott equal time to respond. The more Abbott identifies with the Minerals Council (if that’s possible) the better.
    When this thing turns around for Labor, as it must, then Abbott will be stuffed.
    PS john @ 6.43pm…speak your mind son ! And let’s not stop with Cassidy on the Insiders, it’s seems to be the whole ABC starting with Fran Kelly every morning at 6.30am then right through the day. If it wasn’t for the Internet and the blogosphere it would be quite depressing.

  47. john

    @21

    They were just as vicious with Whitlam and Keating. They still lie about Whitlam now, and they called the 1993 election the ‘unwinnable’ election to try to help the Liberals get in.

    That was before Howard lobotomised the ABC, but I think that Rudd can win this election against massive media disapproval because he did it once already.

    They had a pretty vicious attack all the way through, and no matter how many ‘the honeymoon is over’ stories they wrote after Kev was elected, it took an actual bad decision to lower his approval, i.e. the dumping of the insulation scheme and the postponing of the ETS.

    People do not listen to political reporters. Swing voters are persuaded by their friends and family, and campaigning.

  48. john

    @21

    They were just as vicious with Whitlam and Keating. They still lie about Whitlam now, and they called the 1993 election the ‘unwinnable’ election to try to help the Liberals get in.

    That was before Howard lobotomised the ABC, but I think that Rudd can win this election against massive media disapproval because he did it once already.

    They had a pretty vicious attack all the way through, and no matter how many ‘the honeymoon is over’ stories they wrote after Kev was elected, it took an actual bad decision to lower his approval, i.e. the dumping of the insulation scheme and the postponing of the ETS.

    People do not listen to political reporters. Swing voters are persuaded by their friends and family, and campaigning.

  49. Lefty E

    Rudd will definitely go in October/ November. You can just about bank on it.

    Why? Because his risk aversion will trump every other consideration, as it always does. And that’s “a full term”.

  50. Lefty E

    Rudd will definitely go in October/ November. You can just about bank on it.

    Why? Because his risk aversion will trump every other consideration, as it always does. And that’s “a full term”.

  51. Flynnboy

    “it took an actual bad decision to lower his approval, i.e. the dumping of the insulation scheme and the postponing of the ETS.”

    The insulation scheme was dumped because of a massive negative media blitz of half-truths and wild, hysterical exaggerations – that was the beginning of it. The relentless – and quite effective – anti-government media onslaught has rolled on relentlessy from there.

  52. Flynnboy

    “it took an actual bad decision to lower his approval, i.e. the dumping of the insulation scheme and the postponing of the ETS.”

    The insulation scheme was dumped because of a massive negative media blitz of half-truths and wild, hysterical exaggerations – that was the beginning of it. The relentless – and quite effective – anti-government media onslaught has rolled on relentlessy from there.

  53. paul walter

    Sorry, the ALP could have had a double dissolution when it was running better, but was unwilling to contemplate sharing government with the Greens.
    A good example of why was presented on 7 30 Report, re woodchipping, old growth logging and pulping (again). If you agree that ,not only global warming but ecological degradation on a grand scale is,indeed “the great moral problem”, you can only shake you head bemusedly, that Labor didn’t eagerly reach forth to embrace the Greens and defend sustainable development intead of jettisoning it.

  54. paul walter

    Sorry, the ALP could have had a double dissolution when it was running better, but was unwilling to contemplate sharing government with the Greens.
    A good example of why was presented on 7 30 Report, re woodchipping, old growth logging and pulping (again). If you agree that ,not only global warming but ecological degradation on a grand scale is,indeed “the great moral problem”, you can only shake you head bemusedly, that Labor didn’t eagerly reach forth to embrace the Greens and defend sustainable development intead of jettisoning it.

  55. john

    @ 24

    Pretty risk averse to pick a fight with the lobby that thrashed them six months earlier, Lefty E.

    @25, Yeah, the insulation scheme was dumped because the media ran a campaign against it, and the government was spooked and dumped it. But I think it was a good policy, and any reasonable person who thinks about the insulation scheme will know that it’s not the federal government’s fault that some small business owners broke the law.

    About the ETS, I think the media had more effect, calling it ‘dumped’ rather than postponed.

    But my point was the polls dived when Kevin stopped making good policy decisions, and it wasn’t the media message that caused that. They have less power than they think.

  56. john

    @ 24

    Pretty risk averse to pick a fight with the lobby that thrashed them six months earlier, Lefty E.

    @25, Yeah, the insulation scheme was dumped because the media ran a campaign against it, and the government was spooked and dumped it. But I think it was a good policy, and any reasonable person who thinks about the insulation scheme will know that it’s not the federal government’s fault that some small business owners broke the law.

    About the ETS, I think the media had more effect, calling it ‘dumped’ rather than postponed.

    But my point was the polls dived when Kevin stopped making good policy decisions, and it wasn’t the media message that caused that. They have less power than they think.

  57. Zorronsky

    It’s time we all became the media. The tools are now in our hands. Watching and listening to the Government message is akin to Marcel Marceau, we can see it, but no one can hear it. Where’s the proof of the lefts prodigious talent for radical thought and innovation? Punch out the message, we all can help.

  58. Zorronsky

    It’s time we all became the media. The tools are now in our hands. Watching and listening to the Government message is akin to Marcel Marceau, we can see it, but no one can hear it. Where’s the proof of the lefts prodigious talent for radical thought and innovation? Punch out the message, we all can help.

  59. Robert Merkel

    The track record of legislated debt limits is (to my knowledge) not very good LO.

    The Euro debt limits were routinely evaded or ignored by its members (again, look at Greece), and as I understand it balanced budget amendments have meant that the US federal stimulus has been almost entirely canceled out by state and local budget cuts.

  60. Robert Merkel

    The track record of legislated debt limits is (to my knowledge) not very good LO.

    The Euro debt limits were routinely evaded or ignored by its members (again, look at Greece), and as I understand it balanced budget amendments have meant that the US federal stimulus has been almost entirely canceled out by state and local budget cuts.

  61. Robert Merkel

    Flynnboy, the media may have been vicious, but the government just rolled over when they were largely in the right.

  62. Robert Merkel

    Flynnboy, the media may have been vicious, but the government just rolled over when they were largely in the right.

  63. Fascinated

    [email protected]
    The clean cut bloke in chinos is emblematic of the new aspirational Oz.
    I fly in, I fly out – we holiday in Kota. The mortgage is ’bout 450,000 aside from the negative geared properties we own with the brother in law.
    Well yeah, so I earn $100k+, my partner say $65-$100++ – mate, I earnt that contract -I studied law at ( add Sandstone) My Mom is a teacher/nurse – who’d do it – takes commitment.
    Well mate, I reckon the Ruddsters too serious, t he lifesaver should get his gear back on, Bob sticks to his guns and that Steve bloke is.. how’d that happen?… at I/my partner study part-time/MBA/, the kids go to school at ……./…………./……..
    The bosses are CR*P – we all know that – but they pay our $100k+ contracts – so I can afford my pale blue grazier shirt, RMWlliams boots and the chinos for this ad – and I look lke a pretty average bloke don’t I? Buff, not quite cougar territory but almost.
    This is the mining/pastoralists modern day version of flour and grog for jackaroos.
    Don’t be under illusion -the message is not for the general public in these ads, its for the contractors whose flour rations and jerky depend on the whims of the Ginas/Twiggys/Clives of this world.
    Just saying.

  64. Fascinated

    [email protected]
    The clean cut bloke in chinos is emblematic of the new aspirational Oz.
    I fly in, I fly out – we holiday in Kota. The mortgage is ’bout 450,000 aside from the negative geared properties we own with the brother in law.
    Well yeah, so I earn $100k+, my partner say $65-$100++ – mate, I earnt that contract -I studied law at ( add Sandstone) My Mom is a teacher/nurse – who’d do it – takes commitment.
    Well mate, I reckon the Ruddsters too serious, t he lifesaver should get his gear back on, Bob sticks to his guns and that Steve bloke is.. how’d that happen?… at I/my partner study part-time/MBA/, the kids go to school at ……./…………./……..
    The bosses are CR*P – we all know that – but they pay our $100k+ contracts – so I can afford my pale blue grazier shirt, RMWlliams boots and the chinos for this ad – and I look lke a pretty average bloke don’t I? Buff, not quite cougar territory but almost.
    This is the mining/pastoralists modern day version of flour and grog for jackaroos.
    Don’t be under illusion -the message is not for the general public in these ads, its for the contractors whose flour rations and jerky depend on the whims of the Ginas/Twiggys/Clives of this world.
    Just saying.

  65. tssk

    For those knocking the ABC.

    I repeat again. I think Rudd has been brave in not politicising the board of the ABC like past leaders have.

    And as for those at the ABC…put yourself in their shoes. On the one hand they have the ALP who have been hands off this time allowing them free reign. On the other side the Libs. Who aren’t back in power but who are taking names.

    What would you do?

    One of my Liberal voting mates loves the current regime and never fails to let me know at BBQ’s how much he is enjoying them rip into Rudd while giving Abbott a free ride. “Not that it stops me writing the odd letter complaining about their left wing bias mate. After all, until they are as balanced as Fox is the job ain’t done.”

  66. tssk

    For those knocking the ABC.

    I repeat again. I think Rudd has been brave in not politicising the board of the ABC like past leaders have.

    And as for those at the ABC…put yourself in their shoes. On the one hand they have the ALP who have been hands off this time allowing them free reign. On the other side the Libs. Who aren’t back in power but who are taking names.

    What would you do?

    One of my Liberal voting mates loves the current regime and never fails to let me know at BBQ’s how much he is enjoying them rip into Rudd while giving Abbott a free ride. “Not that it stops me writing the odd letter complaining about their left wing bias mate. After all, until they are as balanced as Fox is the job ain’t done.”

  67. Fran Barlow

    This is silly tssk. It’s not about getting the ABC to run as the ALP response to the Murdoch-press. It’s about getting them to do serious analysis of what is being claimed in public space so that there is at least one place people can go where appropriate scrutiny takes place.

  68. Fran Barlow

    This is silly tssk. It’s not about getting the ABC to run as the ALP response to the Murdoch-press. It’s about getting them to do serious analysis of what is being claimed in public space so that there is at least one place people can go where appropriate scrutiny takes place.

  69. Razor

    Rudd won’t go until the polls improve. I expect a poll date of March/April unless the polling improves.

  70. Razor

    Rudd won’t go until the polls improve. I expect a poll date of March/April unless the polling improves.

  71. Razor

    And, I watch way too much TV and have not seen one of the ALP ads yet.

  72. Razor

    And, I watch way too much TV and have not seen one of the ALP ads yet.

  73. Labor Outsider

    A balanced budget amendment is not the same thing as a public debt limit Robert. Nobody suggests the latter is appropriate unless a) borrowing costs are prohibitive or b) circumstances render fiscal policy completely ineffective. And the problem with the Stability and Growth Pact in Europe was the lack of enforcement that undermined its credibility, not the idea of limits in the first place. Discussion of reform of EU fiscal policy is centering on stronger not weaker limits. The experience with Greece simply makes it inevitable that national governments in Europe will face much stronge oversight from the European Commission. Without any fiscal rules the euro area problems would be even worse than is currently the case.

  74. Labor Outsider

    A balanced budget amendment is not the same thing as a public debt limit Robert. Nobody suggests the latter is appropriate unless a) borrowing costs are prohibitive or b) circumstances render fiscal policy completely ineffective. And the problem with the Stability and Growth Pact in Europe was the lack of enforcement that undermined its credibility, not the idea of limits in the first place. Discussion of reform of EU fiscal policy is centering on stronger not weaker limits. The experience with Greece simply makes it inevitable that national governments in Europe will face much stronge oversight from the European Commission. Without any fiscal rules the euro area problems would be even worse than is currently the case.

  75. Robert Merkel

    I agree that they are not the same thing, LO. But a) setting appropriate limits in advance is highly problematic, and b) the ability for past democratically elected governments to bind future ones is (rightly) limited.

  76. Robert Merkel

    I agree that they are not the same thing, LO. But a) setting appropriate limits in advance is highly problematic, and b) the ability for past democratically elected governments to bind future ones is (rightly) limited.

  77. Doug

    Note Anthony Green with a comprehensive survey of the dates and issues related to election timing.

    It will certainly not be late October and early November as there is a Victorian state election fixed for novemeber.

  78. Doug

    Note Anthony Green with a comprehensive survey of the dates and issues related to election timing.

    It will certainly not be late October and early November as there is a Victorian state election fixed for novemeber.

  79. derrida derider

    I reckon he’ll go late. All the bad news is behind him. The RSPT will probably be settled policy and if it’s not he can play dirty with the miners (greedy billionaires making 43% profits – the lines write themselves). The whole thing is already far from an unambiguous seat-loser BTW; there aint no marginal WA seats to lose, there are few Qld ones and it’s actually moderately popular in the rest of the country. Don’t make the pollie’s mistake of confusing noise and power.

    Going later lets him manufacture lots of good news. Absent unexpected catastrophes (always possible for either side in politics) the stuff about “leadership changes” will quickly die down (Murdoch press excepted, of course) because it has no substance outside the fertile imagination of hacks desperate for a story.

    Most likely Rudd will get back with a healthy majority.

  80. derrida derider

    I reckon he’ll go late. All the bad news is behind him. The RSPT will probably be settled policy and if it’s not he can play dirty with the miners (greedy billionaires making 43% profits – the lines write themselves). The whole thing is already far from an unambiguous seat-loser BTW; there aint no marginal WA seats to lose, there are few Qld ones and it’s actually moderately popular in the rest of the country. Don’t make the pollie’s mistake of confusing noise and power.

    Going later lets him manufacture lots of good news. Absent unexpected catastrophes (always possible for either side in politics) the stuff about “leadership changes” will quickly die down (Murdoch press excepted, of course) because it has no substance outside the fertile imagination of hacks desperate for a story.

    Most likely Rudd will get back with a healthy majority.

  81. Paul Burns

    Winter elections are rare in Australia. The only one that comes readily to mind is June 1943. And that was called by Curtin to avoid a looming and certain to be successful no confidence vote on the Brisbane Line controversy.Curtin won.
    On that very slender evidence, one might argue winter elections favour the incumbent.
    There may havew been one later winter election, but I can’t recall it. Any help, LP-ers?

  82. Paul Burns

    Winter elections are rare in Australia. The only one that comes readily to mind is June 1943. And that was called by Curtin to avoid a looming and certain to be successful no confidence vote on the Brisbane Line controversy.Curtin won.
    On that very slender evidence, one might argue winter elections favour the incumbent.
    There may havew been one later winter election, but I can’t recall it. Any help, LP-ers?

  83. Tim Macknay

    Rudd won’t go until the polls improve. I expect a poll date of March/April unless the polling improves.

    Razor, you’re letting yourself get carried away by the mining tax furore. The polls aren’t nearly that bad for the Government.

  84. Tim Macknay

    Rudd won’t go until the polls improve. I expect a poll date of March/April unless the polling improves.

    Razor, you’re letting yourself get carried away by the mining tax furore. The polls aren’t nearly that bad for the Government.

  85. Darryl Rosin

    “There may havew been one later winter election, but I can’t recall it. Any help, LP-ers?”

    The 1987 Election was in July. They’re the only two elections in June-July-Aug.

    d

  86. Darryl Rosin

    “There may havew been one later winter election, but I can’t recall it. Any help, LP-ers?”

    The 1987 Election was in July. They’re the only two elections in June-July-Aug.

    d

  87. Mark

    @43 – and won by the Hawke government after a polling plunge, as I recall, Darryl.

  88. Mark

    @43 – and won by the Hawke government after a polling plunge, as I recall, Darryl.

  89. Paul Norton

    Mark #44, I have vivid memories of a Sydney Sun-Herald banner from the mid-1980s which read “Howard to Crush Hawke” and led to a report on the first poll taken after Howard had been elected Opposition Laader.

  90. Paul Norton

    Mark #44, I have vivid memories of a Sydney Sun-Herald banner from the mid-1980s which read “Howard to Crush Hawke” and led to a report on the first poll taken after Howard had been elected Opposition Laader.

  91. Mark

    @45 – yep, and it was an early election in which the Libs had a disastrous campaign when their governing credentials were put under the spotlight and found wanting!

    Howard sought to blame it all on Joh.

    Be interesting to go back and find out what his own approval ratings were – not very strong, I’d suspect. It’s worth remembering how unpopular and unappealing Howard was in his first incarnation.

  92. Mark

    @45 – yep, and it was an early election in which the Libs had a disastrous campaign when their governing credentials were put under the spotlight and found wanting!

    Howard sought to blame it all on Joh.

    Be interesting to go back and find out what his own approval ratings were – not very strong, I’d suspect. It’s worth remembering how unpopular and unappealing Howard was in his first incarnation.

  93. Razor

    Tim @ 42 – you can believe what you want. Let’s see what the polls tell us over the next few months.

  94. Razor

    Tim @ 42 – you can believe what you want. Let’s see what the polls tell us over the next few months.

  95. Zorronsky

    It seems to me that the Rudd rhetoric is pretty well met time wise and see no reason for any other than a full term Government. Even to a late summer election. Another half year or more of nonsense from the usual suspects will IMO be falling like autumn leaves and assuming about the same level of nuisance while the Government messages will become the positives of the debate.

  96. Zorronsky

    It seems to me that the Rudd rhetoric is pretty well met time wise and see no reason for any other than a full term Government. Even to a late summer election. Another half year or more of nonsense from the usual suspects will IMO be falling like autumn leaves and assuming about the same level of nuisance while the Government messages will become the positives of the debate.

  97. adrian

    “Because his risk aversion will trump every other consideration, as it always does.”

    Yet another myth borrowed from the coalition and their acolytes.
    Mining Tax, BER, Home Insulation, Health Reform etc etc?

    Any government that was truly risk averse would do sweet FA in the current environment. When you don’t do anything you can’t make mistakes that will inevitiably be magnified by your opponents.

  98. adrian

    “Because his risk aversion will trump every other consideration, as it always does.”

    Yet another myth borrowed from the coalition and their acolytes.
    Mining Tax, BER, Home Insulation, Health Reform etc etc?

    Any government that was truly risk averse would do sweet FA in the current environment. When you don’t do anything you can’t make mistakes that will inevitiably be magnified by your opponents.

  99. Razor

    On further consideration I think they will be too scared of the risks associated with NSW and will want to go before the NSW election (bloodbath), therefore my call is now Feb/early March.

  100. Razor

    On further consideration I think they will be too scared of the risks associated with NSW and will want to go before the NSW election (bloodbath), therefore my call is now Feb/early March.

  101. Tim Macknay

    Tim @ 42 – you can believe what you want.

    As can you. But objectively, though, the polls are nothing like what they were in 1995, which was the last time a Federal government panicked enough to delay an election by that much, or 2007 for that matter. If the polls get a lot worse for the Government, you might be right. But they’re not there yet.

    Let’s see what the polls tell us over the next few months.

    Agreed.

  102. Tim Macknay

    Tim @ 42 – you can believe what you want.

    As can you. But objectively, though, the polls are nothing like what they were in 1995, which was the last time a Federal government panicked enough to delay an election by that much, or 2007 for that matter. If the polls get a lot worse for the Government, you might be right. But they’re not there yet.

    Let’s see what the polls tell us over the next few months.

    Agreed.

  103. Liam

    Razor, February/early March will be prime election season for NSW, polling day here’s March 26.

  104. Liam

    Razor, February/early March will be prime election season for NSW, polling day here’s March 26.

  105. Darryl Rosin

    “… the polls are nothing like what they were in 1995, which was the last time a Federal government panicked enough to delay an election by that much”

    The 1993 election was on 13 March, the 37th Parliament first sat on 4 May 1993, writs for the election were issued in April 1996 and polling day was 2 March 1996. There’s no ‘delay’ in there at all.

    d

  106. Darryl Rosin

    “… the polls are nothing like what they were in 1995, which was the last time a Federal government panicked enough to delay an election by that much”

    The 1993 election was on 13 March, the 37th Parliament first sat on 4 May 1993, writs for the election were issued in April 1996 and polling day was 2 March 1996. There’s no ‘delay’ in there at all.

    d

  107. Tim Macknay

    Right you are, Darryl Rosin. I was under the impression the March date must have meant a delayed election. Clearly, however, I am wrong.

  108. Tim Macknay

    Right you are, Darryl Rosin. I was under the impression the March date must have meant a delayed election. Clearly, however, I am wrong.

  109. Labor Outsider

    Mark

    You are right about Howard. Apart from a brief period of approval right at the beginning, Howard had a high net dissatisfaction rating throughout almost his entire first stint as opposition leader. In the last Newspoll before the 87 election Hawke had an approval rating of 52%, while Howard’s was 40%. The gap had been bigger for most of the months leading up to the election.

  110. Labor Outsider

    Mark

    You are right about Howard. Apart from a brief period of approval right at the beginning, Howard had a high net dissatisfaction rating throughout almost his entire first stint as opposition leader. In the last Newspoll before the 87 election Hawke had an approval rating of 52%, while Howard’s was 40%. The gap had been bigger for most of the months leading up to the election.

  111. GregM

    The 1993 election was on 13 March, the 37th Parliament first sat on 4 May 1993, writs for the election were issued in April 1996 and polling day was 2 March 1996. There’s no ‘delay’ in there at all.

    A small correction Darryl. The writs for the 1996 election were issued by the Governor General on 29 January 1996, initiating the election process. The election was held on 2 March and the writs (informing the Governor General of the results of the election) were returned to him on 1 April.

    http://www.aec.gov.au/Elections/federal_elections/1996/report/introduction.htm

    You are quite right that there would be no ‘delay’ in holding the election in March 2011. It could be held as late as 16 April 2011.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Australian_federal_election#Date

    I can’t see how an election can be called delayed where a Government chooses to run its full term.

  112. GregM

    The 1993 election was on 13 March, the 37th Parliament first sat on 4 May 1993, writs for the election were issued in April 1996 and polling day was 2 March 1996. There’s no ‘delay’ in there at all.

    A small correction Darryl. The writs for the 1996 election were issued by the Governor General on 29 January 1996, initiating the election process. The election was held on 2 March and the writs (informing the Governor General of the results of the election) were returned to him on 1 April.

    http://www.aec.gov.au/Elections/federal_elections/1996/report/introduction.htm

    You are quite right that there would be no ‘delay’ in holding the election in March 2011. It could be held as late as 16 April 2011.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Australian_federal_election#Date

    I can’t see how an election can be called delayed where a Government chooses to run its full term.

  113. Mark

    Update: Possum has published a leaked minute which suggests options are being kept open for an August 28 election.

  114. Mark

    Update: Possum has published a leaked minute which suggests options are being kept open for an August 28 election.

  115. Mark

    @55 – thanks for that, LO.

    @56 – GregM, I think it’s a matter of political perceptions. Howard was coming close to being painted as “afraid to go to the voters” last time. It’s not widely known that the three years starts from when Parliament first sits, not from the date of the last one. I think if Rudd went any later than November/December, he’d start to get the perception of going too late, and with the media the way it is, it’ll no doubt be a ‘narrative’ much sooner.

    It’s a bit like the UK parliament – in theory terms are 5 years, but everyone seems to expect an election after 4.

  116. Mark

    @55 – thanks for that, LO.

    @56 – GregM, I think it’s a matter of political perceptions. Howard was coming close to being painted as “afraid to go to the voters” last time. It’s not widely known that the three years starts from when Parliament first sits, not from the date of the last one. I think if Rudd went any later than November/December, he’d start to get the perception of going too late, and with the media the way it is, it’ll no doubt be a ‘narrative’ much sooner.

    It’s a bit like the UK parliament – in theory terms are 5 years, but everyone seems to expect an election after 4.

  117. Sam

    “the UK parliament – in theory terms are 5 years, but everyone seems to expect an election after 4.”

    Not always. Brown held on the full 5 years, not that it did him any good. As did John Major, twice.

  118. Sam

    “the UK parliament – in theory terms are 5 years, but everyone seems to expect an election after 4.”

    Not always. Brown held on the full 5 years, not that it did him any good. As did John Major, twice.

  119. Mark

    @59 – true, Sam, but Brown probably would have done better in the election he never had, around the time after he’d taken over from Blair and he was riding high.

  120. Mark

    @59 – true, Sam, but Brown probably would have done better in the election he never had, around the time after he’d taken over from Blair and he was riding high.

  121. Zorronsky

    Kevin Rudd has just indicated on 7.30 with Red Kerry that he is anticipating an autumn election.. [email protected] 48.

  122. Zorronsky

    Kevin Rudd has just indicated on 7.30 with Red Kerry that he is anticipating an autumn election.. [email protected] 48.

  123. Andrew E

    I still say that Abbott and Abetz will attempt to shave some minor piece of spending, Rudd and Swan will shriek that the budget is being blocked, and the balloon will go up. Rudd returns with a solid but not spectacular majority (much like the one he has now), Libs lose ground in the Senate to Labor and the Greens, and all of a sudden the jittery position of today evaporates. Abbott won’t go straight away because it will take the Libs some time to realise just how gypped they’ve been – and that they’ve done it to themselves.

  124. Andrew E

    I still say that Abbott and Abetz will attempt to shave some minor piece of spending, Rudd and Swan will shriek that the budget is being blocked, and the balloon will go up. Rudd returns with a solid but not spectacular majority (much like the one he has now), Libs lose ground in the Senate to Labor and the Greens, and all of a sudden the jittery position of today evaporates. Abbott won’t go straight away because it will take the Libs some time to realise just how gypped they’ve been – and that they’ve done it to themselves.

  125. guffold

    Paul @45 – Here‘s that that Sun-Herald front page from ’85. You’ll want to zoom out for the full effect – endearing ‘family man’ photo and all. The poll results are on page 5 beneath a full-page profile on Janette (‘the woman behind Honest John’). No approval ratings as such, but 59.5% of those polled felt Howard would make a better opposition leader than Peacock. (Only 11.5% said the leadership change would alter their vote, though).

    Take home lesson? From assuming the leadership in ’85, Howard endured 11 years of mockery and knock-downs and lingering and pandering before becoming in any way acceptable to the Australian electorate. For all the flaws of the Rudd government, I pray Mr. Abbott lacks the luck and the intestinal fortitude to chart a similar course.

    The ALP should roll the electoral dice already and begin earnestly digging a grave for Abbott’s political career. Then hopefully fill it in properly in 2011 with some solid policy outcomes (no triple bypass Lazarus).

    Long time LP lurker, first time caller.

  126. guffold

    Paul @45 – Here‘s that that Sun-Herald front page from ’85. You’ll want to zoom out for the full effect – endearing ‘family man’ photo and all. The poll results are on page 5 beneath a full-page profile on Janette (‘the woman behind Honest John’). No approval ratings as such, but 59.5% of those polled felt Howard would make a better opposition leader than Peacock. (Only 11.5% said the leadership change would alter their vote, though).

    Take home lesson? From assuming the leadership in ’85, Howard endured 11 years of mockery and knock-downs and lingering and pandering before becoming in any way acceptable to the Australian electorate. For all the flaws of the Rudd government, I pray Mr. Abbott lacks the luck and the intestinal fortitude to chart a similar course.

    The ALP should roll the electoral dice already and begin earnestly digging a grave for Abbott’s political career. Then hopefully fill it in properly in 2011 with some solid policy outcomes (no triple bypass Lazarus).

    Long time LP lurker, first time caller.

  127. Mark

    @62 – Andrew E, surely the Liberals couldn’t keep up the ‘we was robbed’ thing after another defeat?

  128. Mark

    @62 – Andrew E, surely the Liberals couldn’t keep up the ‘we was robbed’ thing after another defeat?

  129. Darryl Rosin

    Ta GregM

    I’m glad you took the time to read my comment, ’cause I obviously didn’t.

    d

  130. Darryl Rosin

    Ta GregM

    I’m glad you took the time to read my comment, ’cause I obviously didn’t.

    d

  131. Mercurius

    To the original premise of Mark’s thread: I can think of one salient argument against an earlier election…rope a dope.

    Rudd is taking all the body-punches at the moment, showing little or no sign of retaliation, and lying back on the ropes. Each day has the boxing commentators declaring that he can’t possibly take this punishment much longer.

    But I reckon Rudd may have decided to let the miners and COALition tire themselves out with a flurry of punches now (just look at the ad spend), and then king hit them in a few rounds’ time.

    I’m not suggesting he’s smart enough for eleven-dimensional chess or anything, but ultimately what matters is who’s standing at the final bell, not how much punishment they absorb along the way…

  132. Mercurius

    To the original premise of Mark’s thread: I can think of one salient argument against an earlier election…rope a dope.

    Rudd is taking all the body-punches at the moment, showing little or no sign of retaliation, and lying back on the ropes. Each day has the boxing commentators declaring that he can’t possibly take this punishment much longer.

    But I reckon Rudd may have decided to let the miners and COALition tire themselves out with a flurry of punches now (just look at the ad spend), and then king hit them in a few rounds’ time.

    I’m not suggesting he’s smart enough for eleven-dimensional chess or anything, but ultimately what matters is who’s standing at the final bell, not how much punishment they absorb along the way…

  133. tigtog

    Mercurius, I’ve been thinking along the same lines. Taking punishment now so that they look more of an underdog when the election is called and they come out fighting could be an effective strategy too, given the average Aussie reaction to plucky underdogs.

  134. tigtog

    Mercurius, I’ve been thinking along the same lines. Taking punishment now so that they look more of an underdog when the election is called and they come out fighting could be an effective strategy too, given the average Aussie reaction to plucky underdogs.

  135. Mark

    Yeah, and also encouraging Abbott into over confidence.

  136. Mark

    Yeah, and also encouraging Abbott into over confidence.

  137. Mercurius

    Yes TT – if you think back to the start of the year when a Labor shoo-in was the obvious outcome, it’s a bit dull and subject to backlash or an ennui vote for the Opposition. Although it’s a bit eleven-dimensional chess to think of weakening one’s position this much, the caning that Labor has taken at this early stage may serve to their advantage towards the end game…

    Rudd has once again wheeled out the “we’ll cop a whackin’ in the polls” line. I think there’s quite a bit of calculation involved in all the soft-pedalling they’ve been doing since March.

  138. Mercurius

    Yes TT – if you think back to the start of the year when a Labor shoo-in was the obvious outcome, it’s a bit dull and subject to backlash or an ennui vote for the Opposition. Although it’s a bit eleven-dimensional chess to think of weakening one’s position this much, the caning that Labor has taken at this early stage may serve to their advantage towards the end game…

    Rudd has once again wheeled out the “we’ll cop a whackin’ in the polls” line. I think there’s quite a bit of calculation involved in all the soft-pedalling they’ve been doing since March.

  139. Mark

    @69 – There, I’m not too sure, Merc. You really can’t downplay the needless stuff ups.

  140. Mark

    @69 – There, I’m not too sure, Merc. You really can’t downplay the needless stuff ups.

  141. Howard Cunningham

    Unless the electorate really begins to think that the Government itself actually believes it is crap.

  142. Howard Cunningham

    Unless the electorate really begins to think that the Government itself actually believes it is crap.

  143. Andrew E

    [email protected] – the Libs in NSW spent a dozen years thinking that government was just a matter of sitting still and waiting. It isn’t “we was robbed” – that’s what Labor did after ’75 – it’s a combination of work-shy complacency about the degree of change necessary to return to government; a reluctance to embrace the opportunity to throw out old stuff that doesn’t work any more; a hangover of that whole disunity-is-death, change=panic notion that has replaced party discipline; and a refusal to face the notion that everyone’s time is up sooner or later – and for many, theirs is up now. The Liberals have so isolated themselves that they believe that renewal involves getting Howard government staffers into seats – a Liberal parliamentary party consisting of people who weren’t there in 1999 or 2002 is inconceivable, and frankly there is no push from outside for any sort of Augean cleanout like Victoria in ’89.

  144. Andrew E

    [email protected] – the Libs in NSW spent a dozen years thinking that government was just a matter of sitting still and waiting. It isn’t “we was robbed” – that’s what Labor did after ’75 – it’s a combination of work-shy complacency about the degree of change necessary to return to government; a reluctance to embrace the opportunity to throw out old stuff that doesn’t work any more; a hangover of that whole disunity-is-death, change=panic notion that has replaced party discipline; and a refusal to face the notion that everyone’s time is up sooner or later – and for many, theirs is up now. The Liberals have so isolated themselves that they believe that renewal involves getting Howard government staffers into seats – a Liberal parliamentary party consisting of people who weren’t there in 1999 or 2002 is inconceivable, and frankly there is no push from outside for any sort of Augean cleanout like Victoria in ’89.