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752 responses to “How the coup against Kevin Rudd unfolded”

  1. Chris

    Really interesting post.

    It should also be obvious that the ‘clean air’ claim is self-reinforcing when the coup was cooked up with elements of the press gallery either in cahoots or rapturous with delight about having a leadership issue to write about.

    I think its much more likely the latter. We can see here that its the elements of the ALP using the media to get what they want (and the press get a great story and ratings as well). Can’t really blame the media going for leadership stories – look at all the fun they had over the years with Howard & Costello. This time they got several years worth in just 12 hours (probably made a lot money with the former).

    How much of the media bias has actually been internal elements of the ALP feeding stories to the press and setting up Rudd for a big fall? He came to power on the basis of getting rid of the power that factions hold. And now they’re the ones that have brought him down now and reestablished control over the leadership.

  2. Chris

    Really interesting post.

    It should also be obvious that the ‘clean air’ claim is self-reinforcing when the coup was cooked up with elements of the press gallery either in cahoots or rapturous with delight about having a leadership issue to write about.

    I think its much more likely the latter. We can see here that its the elements of the ALP using the media to get what they want (and the press get a great story and ratings as well). Can’t really blame the media going for leadership stories – look at all the fun they had over the years with Howard & Costello. This time they got several years worth in just 12 hours (probably made a lot money with the former).

    How much of the media bias has actually been internal elements of the ALP feeding stories to the press and setting up Rudd for a big fall? He came to power on the basis of getting rid of the power that factions hold. And now they’re the ones that have brought him down now and reestablished control over the leadership.

  3. Enemy Combatant

    “I think it’s fair to characterise it as a coup which was organised behind the back of caucus members.”

    Mark,I don’t. Didn’t notice too many tanks blitzkrieging the corridors of power, no citizens “disappeared”, nor were pollies summararily executed.

    How about “an exercise in ruthless realpolitik”.

  4. Enemy Combatant

    “I think it’s fair to characterise it as a coup which was organised behind the back of caucus members.”

    Mark,I don’t. Didn’t notice too many tanks blitzkrieging the corridors of power, no citizens “disappeared”, nor were pollies summararily executed.

    How about “an exercise in ruthless realpolitik”.

  5. patrickg

    f*cking disgusting.

  6. patrickg

    f*cking disgusting.

  7. MH

    None of this explains Rudd’s astonishing lack of support within the party, though.

  8. MH

    None of this explains Rudd’s astonishing lack of support within the party, though.

  9. Ute Man

    Well, no, Chris – not the factions directly. They’ve been dragged along in the wake of the union men / machine men. This is fundamentally different to the way Richo operated.

    There is no way to vote for this party any more, not while these grubs orchestrate media campaigns to kill legislation like the ETS on behalf of resource companies, for the puny prize of “being in power”. Arbib is kidding himself if he (like the rest of the filthy animals in the NSW Labor party) mistake power for merely being the conduit for powerful external interests.

    The more of this stuff that comes out (especially Gillards opposition to the ETS) just makes me sick. They make Abbott look honest – at least he and the rest of the coalition are unapologetic about their big business masters.

  10. Ute Man

    Well, no, Chris – not the factions directly. They’ve been dragged along in the wake of the union men / machine men. This is fundamentally different to the way Richo operated.

    There is no way to vote for this party any more, not while these grubs orchestrate media campaigns to kill legislation like the ETS on behalf of resource companies, for the puny prize of “being in power”. Arbib is kidding himself if he (like the rest of the filthy animals in the NSW Labor party) mistake power for merely being the conduit for powerful external interests.

    The more of this stuff that comes out (especially Gillards opposition to the ETS) just makes me sick. They make Abbott look honest – at least he and the rest of the coalition are unapologetic about their big business masters.

  11. tssk

    And the narrative I’m hearing over and over today. “At least Tony Abbott wouldn’t stab his leader in the back. He’s too honest!”

    🙁

  12. tssk

    And the narrative I’m hearing over and over today. “At least Tony Abbott wouldn’t stab his leader in the back. He’s too honest!”

    🙁

  13. adrian

    One thing is for sure. Gillard will forever be tainted by the manner in which she came to power.
    Maybe Latham is right – if she’d said no they would have found someone else.
    And as usual, Laura Tingle is the only press gallary journalist worth reading these days.

  14. adrian

    One thing is for sure. Gillard will forever be tainted by the manner in which she came to power.
    Maybe Latham is right – if she’d said no they would have found someone else.
    And as usual, Laura Tingle is the only press gallary journalist worth reading these days.

  15. tssk

    Of course the trap is that the media now has a narrative to run against Gillard, one of the plotters own making.

    What to do who to vote…

  16. tssk

    Of course the trap is that the media now has a narrative to run against Gillard, one of the plotters own making.

    What to do who to vote…

  17. Terry

    Quote of the day about Comrade Mark Latham:

    He said Ms Gillard had once been an ally of his, but they had fallen out after she launched a book which he said printed rubbish about him.

    Hmmmmm. Irony?

  18. Terry

    Quote of the day about Comrade Mark Latham:

    He said Ms Gillard had once been an ally of his, but they had fallen out after she launched a book which he said printed rubbish about him.

    Hmmmmm. Irony?

  19. adrian

    And the more that is revealed, the worse it will get.
    And they’ve also managed to make the RSPT the central issue once again, just as it was beginning to die down.

    How anyone could vote for these bastards is beyond me – it is simply endorsing this kind of behaviour.

  20. adrian

    And the more that is revealed, the worse it will get.
    And they’ve also managed to make the RSPT the central issue once again, just as it was beginning to die down.

    How anyone could vote for these bastards is beyond me – it is simply endorsing this kind of behaviour.

  21. john

    This is the dirtiest thing I’ve seen in federal politics since the Dismissal. The dirtiest in the ALP since the split.

  22. john

    This is the dirtiest thing I’ve seen in federal politics since the Dismissal. The dirtiest in the ALP since the split.

  23. Enemy Combatant

    Aujourd’hui, Les Peuples Du Punt respondant a la coup sans sang.

    1. AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY 1.36
    2. COALITION 3.05

    Beastly move though it was, the “leadership shuffle” appears to have gained a modicum of traction.

  24. Enemy Combatant

    Aujourd’hui, Les Peuples Du Punt respondant a la coup sans sang.

    1. AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY 1.36
    2. COALITION 3.05

    Beastly move though it was, the “leadership shuffle” appears to have gained a modicum of traction.

  25. Sam

    Latham was at his acerbic best in the AFR today. Very funny. Well worth a read.

    All this angst over the method of Rudd’s execution is much overblown. Would it have been better if it had happened in the old Labor style, with a campaign of destabimisation conducted over months, the leader bleeding slowly, agonizingly, to death, as happened to Hayden and Hawke?

    And why are peopled so shocked that Gillard had the balls to take her chance to become Prime Minister?

  26. Sam

    Latham was at his acerbic best in the AFR today. Very funny. Well worth a read.

    All this angst over the method of Rudd’s execution is much overblown. Would it have been better if it had happened in the old Labor style, with a campaign of destabimisation conducted over months, the leader bleeding slowly, agonizingly, to death, as happened to Hayden and Hawke?

    And why are peopled so shocked that Gillard had the balls to take her chance to become Prime Minister?

  27. Tim Macknay

    Ute man @5:

    … while these grubs orchestrate media campaigns to kill legislation like the ETS on behalf of resource companies …

    Sorry, I must have missed that media campaign. Can you elaborate?

  28. Tim Macknay

    Ute man @5:

    … while these grubs orchestrate media campaigns to kill legislation like the ETS on behalf of resource companies …

    Sorry, I must have missed that media campaign. Can you elaborate?

  29. josh

    you have to admire the chuztpah and strategic skills of these people – in a strictly Machiavellian sense. If only they could use these skills in a way that resembles doing something useful for the country!

  30. josh

    you have to admire the chuztpah and strategic skills of these people – in a strictly Machiavellian sense. If only they could use these skills in a way that resembles doing something useful for the country!

  31. Trenton

    Well done Mark. It strips bare for people the process by which a first term PM has been cynically torn down by a group of powerbrokers who’s only motivation is the quest of power itself.

  32. Trenton

    Well done Mark. It strips bare for people the process by which a first term PM has been cynically torn down by a group of powerbrokers who’s only motivation is the quest of power itself.

  33. adrian

    All of those who seem to regard this plot as the height of strategic brilliance might have other ideas when reality comes in the form of electoral defeat.

    Any traction that they’ve got now will soon be eroded as we learn what lurching to the right means in practice.

    Not that the morons who organised this would really care as long as they’ve got control of the party – seems to be what’s left of their strategy in NSW anyway.

  34. adrian

    All of those who seem to regard this plot as the height of strategic brilliance might have other ideas when reality comes in the form of electoral defeat.

    Any traction that they’ve got now will soon be eroded as we learn what lurching to the right means in practice.

    Not that the morons who organised this would really care as long as they’ve got control of the party – seems to be what’s left of their strategy in NSW anyway.

  35. Sam

    This narrative of Rudd the naive waif being led astray by the evil men from NSW is a nonsense. (The part about

  36. Sam

    This narrative of Rudd the naive waif being led astray by the evil men from NSW is a nonsense. (The part about

  37. Ute Man

    Tim Mackney wrote:

    Sorry, I must have missed that media campaign. Can you elaborate?

    You’re kidding aren’t you? Everything from a bunch of bullshit about “clean coal”, right down to 6 weeks of feeding crap to Andrew Bolt et. al. about bullshit internal polling?

  38. Ute Man

    Tim Mackney wrote:

    Sorry, I must have missed that media campaign. Can you elaborate?

    You’re kidding aren’t you? Everything from a bunch of bullshit about “clean coal”, right down to 6 weeks of feeding crap to Andrew Bolt et. al. about bullshit internal polling?

  39. adrian

    Well it would be ‘a nonsense’ (an odious term first penned by Nick Greiner if I recall correctly)if that were the narrative. Try reading for meaning, Sam.

  40. adrian

    Well it would be ‘a nonsense’ (an odious term first penned by Nick Greiner if I recall correctly)if that were the narrative. Try reading for meaning, Sam.

  41. Sam

    Oops.

    Rudd didn’t have to listen to Arbib’s urgings to drop the ETS. He was the Prime Minister FFS. He could have told him to fuck off. He didn’t have to accept Gillard and Swan’s arguments. He could have taken it to the full cabinet, where at least his own climate change minister would have had a say.

    The men from NSW are evil, but it is others who let them get away with it.

  42. Sam

    Oops.

    Rudd didn’t have to listen to Arbib’s urgings to drop the ETS. He was the Prime Minister FFS. He could have told him to fuck off. He didn’t have to accept Gillard and Swan’s arguments. He could have taken it to the full cabinet, where at least his own climate change minister would have had a say.

    The men from NSW are evil, but it is others who let them get away with it.

  43. john

    @Sam

    I’ll bet you all my money against all your money that after Rudd took their advice on the ETS he refused to do what they said on the RSPT, and they got him for it.

  44. john

    @Sam

    I’ll bet you all my money against all your money that after Rudd took their advice on the ETS he refused to do what they said on the RSPT, and they got him for it.

  45. Tim Macknay

    Nope, it was an honest question, since I wasn’t aware of any actual media campaign that had been orchestrated against the ETS policy by ALP apparatchiks or union officials. I’d though perhaps you were referring to some kind of state-based campaign in NSW, or some other state where I don’t live.

    Now I see you were just venting by engaging in hyperbole. Fair enough, I suppose.

  46. Tim Macknay

    Nope, it was an honest question, since I wasn’t aware of any actual media campaign that had been orchestrated against the ETS policy by ALP apparatchiks or union officials. I’d though perhaps you were referring to some kind of state-based campaign in NSW, or some other state where I don’t live.

    Now I see you were just venting by engaging in hyperbole. Fair enough, I suppose.

  47. Rebekka

    @MH – you’re dead right. Had Rudd been well loved by his colleagues, this would never have happened.

    @tsssk, what, except for when he stood for the leadership against Turnbull? wtf?

    @Adrian, political power seldom gets handed over nicely. Everyone forgets about it a month or so later, no-one is ‘forever tainted’. And of course Latham was right (for once) about them finding someone else if she’d said no. They wanted Rudd gone. And it seems a fairly radical assumption that electing a member of the left to the leadership will definitely result in a “lurch to the right”.

    @John #11 – no dirtier than Keating vs Hawke.

    @Sam “The men from NSW are evil, but it is others who let them get away with it.”

    Last time I checked, both Shorten and Feeny are Victorians, and Don Farrell is from SA, so claims (both yours and others) that this was somehow a plot of the NSW right are downright … bizarre.

  48. Rebekka

    @MH – you’re dead right. Had Rudd been well loved by his colleagues, this would never have happened.

    @tsssk, what, except for when he stood for the leadership against Turnbull? wtf?

    @Adrian, political power seldom gets handed over nicely. Everyone forgets about it a month or so later, no-one is ‘forever tainted’. And of course Latham was right (for once) about them finding someone else if she’d said no. They wanted Rudd gone. And it seems a fairly radical assumption that electing a member of the left to the leadership will definitely result in a “lurch to the right”.

    @John #11 – no dirtier than Keating vs Hawke.

    @Sam “The men from NSW are evil, but it is others who let them get away with it.”

    Last time I checked, both Shorten and Feeny are Victorians, and Don Farrell is from SA, so claims (both yours and others) that this was somehow a plot of the NSW right are downright … bizarre.

  49. Ute Man

    Mark Arbib: tell him what you think of him:

    linky

  50. Ute Man

    Mark Arbib: tell him what you think of him:

    linky

  51. john

    @24

    Oh, bullshit. Hawke was well behind in the polls, and the caucus was against him. The caucus was forced to support Gillard here because of the actions of a few ‘powerbrokers’, and the other option was a heavily wounded Rudd who was wide open to accusations of disunity.

    Read the damn article you’re commenting on.

    I have supported Labor all my life, but if it abandons it’s policies, like the RSPT, and runs to the right on refugees, than I’m voting invalid. I didn’t campaign for Labor for 15 years to see the NSW Right poison the federal party like they did the state party.

    I’m rusted on, but I’m not a hack like you. I won’t support a party that has betrayed its base again.

  52. john

    @24

    Oh, bullshit. Hawke was well behind in the polls, and the caucus was against him. The caucus was forced to support Gillard here because of the actions of a few ‘powerbrokers’, and the other option was a heavily wounded Rudd who was wide open to accusations of disunity.

    Read the damn article you’re commenting on.

    I have supported Labor all my life, but if it abandons it’s policies, like the RSPT, and runs to the right on refugees, than I’m voting invalid. I didn’t campaign for Labor for 15 years to see the NSW Right poison the federal party like they did the state party.

    I’m rusted on, but I’m not a hack like you. I won’t support a party that has betrayed its base again.

  53. Ken Lovell

    So a bunch of ‘machine men who are disliked by many MPs’ decided to change the leader and MPs ‘were effectively given two options’: go along with them or endure indefinite ‘crippled leader’ stories. Cos ‘after the die was cast, there was effectively no alternative to a change of leadership.’

    Sorry, I don’t buy it. What about a third option: tell the ‘machine men’ to go screw themselves. Or a fourth: Gillard comes out in strong support of the leader and means it. Latham says they would have ‘found someone else’ – what tripe. Who else would have taken on Rudd and Gillard – Bill Shorten maybe? Maxine McKew? Anyone who challenged Rudd/Gillard would have become an instant laughing stock.

    The narrative here simply reinforces the mentality that the media determines events and everybody else is a puppet. It’s bullshit, inspired of course by the corporate media and pollsters whose egos it strokes. People have free will. Blaming the media and machine men and ‘we had no choice’ fabrications are just rationalisations to excuse their own absence of character.

    People including Labor MPs make independent decisions about the morality of their behaviour. I’m stunned that not one of them has had the guts to come out and condemn this exercise. They are spineless morons who deserve to go down in flames at the next election and stay in opposition for another 12 years.

  54. Ken Lovell

    So a bunch of ‘machine men who are disliked by many MPs’ decided to change the leader and MPs ‘were effectively given two options’: go along with them or endure indefinite ‘crippled leader’ stories. Cos ‘after the die was cast, there was effectively no alternative to a change of leadership.’

    Sorry, I don’t buy it. What about a third option: tell the ‘machine men’ to go screw themselves. Or a fourth: Gillard comes out in strong support of the leader and means it. Latham says they would have ‘found someone else’ – what tripe. Who else would have taken on Rudd and Gillard – Bill Shorten maybe? Maxine McKew? Anyone who challenged Rudd/Gillard would have become an instant laughing stock.

    The narrative here simply reinforces the mentality that the media determines events and everybody else is a puppet. It’s bullshit, inspired of course by the corporate media and pollsters whose egos it strokes. People have free will. Blaming the media and machine men and ‘we had no choice’ fabrications are just rationalisations to excuse their own absence of character.

    People including Labor MPs make independent decisions about the morality of their behaviour. I’m stunned that not one of them has had the guts to come out and condemn this exercise. They are spineless morons who deserve to go down in flames at the next election and stay in opposition for another 12 years.

  55. KeIThy

    Who cares? He was a nice guy who has a legacy that can’t be tainted…. all else is winning the election and keeping the Libs out!

  56. KeIThy

    Who cares? He was a nice guy who has a legacy that can’t be tainted…. all else is winning the election and keeping the Libs out!

  57. Marlin

    Given that caucus members were in the dark it’s probably not surprising that these were comments from a previous thread from different commenters who didn’t believe the coup was on, it makes for interesting reading:
    “It’s time that we found out the names of the people at Their ABC who are responsible for making up this crap.”
    “I don’t believe the story has any substance and thus can only be construed as a confected campaign.”
    “Chris Uhlmann is the shitstirrer and will come out of this without a skerrick of credibility {if he had any to start with].”
    “OK, so we are supposed to believe that the Victorian and SA Right are going to support Gillard to oust Rudd? The same right that a couple of weeks ago were the biggest obstacle to Julia ever getting the leadership? This looks more and more like fairyland stuff every minute.”
    “If this story were true, the ALP would deserve to lose office.
    Fortunately, I suspect its bollocks – just some nasty factional destabilising, using a willing media thats absolutely dying to hear their own spill stories migth have some support where it matters.”
    “Bet it has about 2 supporters of note in the party.”
    “Looks like a whole lotta nothin’.
    Get a grip, people.”

  58. Marlin

    Given that caucus members were in the dark it’s probably not surprising that these were comments from a previous thread from different commenters who didn’t believe the coup was on, it makes for interesting reading:
    “It’s time that we found out the names of the people at Their ABC who are responsible for making up this crap.”
    “I don’t believe the story has any substance and thus can only be construed as a confected campaign.”
    “Chris Uhlmann is the shitstirrer and will come out of this without a skerrick of credibility {if he had any to start with].”
    “OK, so we are supposed to believe that the Victorian and SA Right are going to support Gillard to oust Rudd? The same right that a couple of weeks ago were the biggest obstacle to Julia ever getting the leadership? This looks more and more like fairyland stuff every minute.”
    “If this story were true, the ALP would deserve to lose office.
    Fortunately, I suspect its bollocks – just some nasty factional destabilising, using a willing media thats absolutely dying to hear their own spill stories migth have some support where it matters.”
    “Bet it has about 2 supporters of note in the party.”
    “Looks like a whole lotta nothin’.
    Get a grip, people.”

  59. john

    @ Ken,

    Unless Rudd’s vote was unanimous, or unanimous but 3, who were then expelled from the party, then the ‘disunity’ meme would have been deafening. Gillard should have refused to play along, you’re right. But she is self-serving and short-sighted, and preferred power than what’s right. It’s why Tanner and Albanese hated her. They knew her.

  60. john

    @ Ken,

    Unless Rudd’s vote was unanimous, or unanimous but 3, who were then expelled from the party, then the ‘disunity’ meme would have been deafening. Gillard should have refused to play along, you’re right. But she is self-serving and short-sighted, and preferred power than what’s right. It’s why Tanner and Albanese hated her. They knew her.

  61. robbo

    Told Arbib in no uncertain terms just what I thought of him last night Uteman.Gillard is a fool for falling for this, listening to talk in town today she is mud for being complicit in this affair. Eden-Monaro is a marginal and it sounds to me like Kelly is gone, mind you only one small town in the elctorate but folk are ropeable. I reckons this is going to backfire badly for Labor, noone I have spoken to is impressed with this. Handed the next election to Abbott,these bastards have,and destroyed Gillards chance of ever being PM as elected by us rather than gifted the job in a deal with the devil.

  62. robbo

    Told Arbib in no uncertain terms just what I thought of him last night Uteman.Gillard is a fool for falling for this, listening to talk in town today she is mud for being complicit in this affair. Eden-Monaro is a marginal and it sounds to me like Kelly is gone, mind you only one small town in the elctorate but folk are ropeable. I reckons this is going to backfire badly for Labor, noone I have spoken to is impressed with this. Handed the next election to Abbott,these bastards have,and destroyed Gillards chance of ever being PM as elected by us rather than gifted the job in a deal with the devil.

  63. Ken Lovell

    John @ 30 my point is that if Gillard had refused to play along there would have been no challenge and no vote. It’s not like Shorten and company have the One True Ring and everyone else has to do what they say.

    Marlin @ 29 what is your point? That lots of people could not believe ALP MPs would be so unprincipled and stupid? I’m sure all concerned would agree with you – we’ve been saying so very loudly for 24 hours – but I don’t know what other inferences we are supposed to draw.

  64. Ken Lovell

    John @ 30 my point is that if Gillard had refused to play along there would have been no challenge and no vote. It’s not like Shorten and company have the One True Ring and everyone else has to do what they say.

    Marlin @ 29 what is your point? That lots of people could not believe ALP MPs would be so unprincipled and stupid? I’m sure all concerned would agree with you – we’ve been saying so very loudly for 24 hours – but I don’t know what other inferences we are supposed to draw.

  65. Mark

    Update: In the Sydney Morning Herald today – Peter Hartcher:

    So why the change? The truth is that some mid-level operatives in the Right faction were angry with Rudd. These powerbrokers hated Rudd for his high-handed leadership style.

    And they were frustrated that Rudd was slow to take their advice in changing policy. They wanted Rudd to take a harder line on asylum seekers, to dump the emissions trading scheme, and to back off on the mining tax.

    These were the people who decided to launch the challenge against Rudd. And when Gillard took their gift, her remarks to the media appeared to deliver what the Right wanted – a harder line on asylum seekers, a more protracted approach to climate change and backing off the mining tax.

    Before he walked away, Rudd told the caucus: “We can’t allow this federal caucus to have embedded in it the same type of culture as NSW where, every time you make tough policy decisions and polls dip, you get a campaign to cripple the leader. It’s not good to bring the NSW culture to Canberra.”

    Andrew West:

    Last night, while some said Arbib simply boarded the train that was the Gillard leadership push, others insisted he was instrumental, planting leaks in the press for weeks to undermine Rudd. ”He’s the biggest harlot in the caucus when it comes to the media,” an opponent said.

    ”If you’re now hearing that he was a passenger on the train, not the driver, that’s an attempt to guard his arse so it doesn’t look like he plotted to take down an elected prime minister.”

  66. Mark

    Update: In the Sydney Morning Herald today – Peter Hartcher:

    So why the change? The truth is that some mid-level operatives in the Right faction were angry with Rudd. These powerbrokers hated Rudd for his high-handed leadership style.

    And they were frustrated that Rudd was slow to take their advice in changing policy. They wanted Rudd to take a harder line on asylum seekers, to dump the emissions trading scheme, and to back off on the mining tax.

    These were the people who decided to launch the challenge against Rudd. And when Gillard took their gift, her remarks to the media appeared to deliver what the Right wanted – a harder line on asylum seekers, a more protracted approach to climate change and backing off the mining tax.

    Before he walked away, Rudd told the caucus: “We can’t allow this federal caucus to have embedded in it the same type of culture as NSW where, every time you make tough policy decisions and polls dip, you get a campaign to cripple the leader. It’s not good to bring the NSW culture to Canberra.”

    Andrew West:

    Last night, while some said Arbib simply boarded the train that was the Gillard leadership push, others insisted he was instrumental, planting leaks in the press for weeks to undermine Rudd. ”He’s the biggest harlot in the caucus when it comes to the media,” an opponent said.

    ”If you’re now hearing that he was a passenger on the train, not the driver, that’s an attempt to guard his arse so it doesn’t look like he plotted to take down an elected prime minister.”

  67. Gabba

    Also, the putsch/coup angle of the leadership spill becomes increasingly more compelling the more one reads about the events of the past two days.

    Part of me figures, “Oh well, it’s happened now. Time for the Government to recollect itself and get on with the job of governing.” But another part remains deeply disturbed and concerned for the future of Australian politics on both sides of the political divide. The dumping of Turnbull for Abbott had a similar surreal feel (though not as dramatic, and other differences due to structural differences between the parties) and was claimed to be about similar things: a dictatorial leadership style; no friends in the caucus; a collapse in the personal approval rating as shown in opinion polls; a tendency to not consult broadly with the parliamentary party and just to announce policy without the pre-knowledge of the party.

    And yet Abbott has proceeded to do many of the same things, with no damage to his position as leader. Again, it seems the polls are either the devil or angel on your shoulder for contemporary political leaders. What a shame.

    Both of the major political parties seem increasingly captive to these kinds of processes, regulated as they are by a fear of the polls and the heartbeat of the 24 hour news cycle and the near total replacement of news and analysis with opinion and punditry.

  68. Gabba

    Also, the putsch/coup angle of the leadership spill becomes increasingly more compelling the more one reads about the events of the past two days.

    Part of me figures, “Oh well, it’s happened now. Time for the Government to recollect itself and get on with the job of governing.” But another part remains deeply disturbed and concerned for the future of Australian politics on both sides of the political divide. The dumping of Turnbull for Abbott had a similar surreal feel (though not as dramatic, and other differences due to structural differences between the parties) and was claimed to be about similar things: a dictatorial leadership style; no friends in the caucus; a collapse in the personal approval rating as shown in opinion polls; a tendency to not consult broadly with the parliamentary party and just to announce policy without the pre-knowledge of the party.

    And yet Abbott has proceeded to do many of the same things, with no damage to his position as leader. Again, it seems the polls are either the devil or angel on your shoulder for contemporary political leaders. What a shame.

    Both of the major political parties seem increasingly captive to these kinds of processes, regulated as they are by a fear of the polls and the heartbeat of the 24 hour news cycle and the near total replacement of news and analysis with opinion and punditry.

  69. Mark

    @27 –

    What about a third option: tell the ‘machine men’ to go screw themselves. Or a fourth: Gillard comes out in strong support of the leader and means it.

    … and that’s precisely what I was hoping would happen on Wednesday night, Ken, as I said at the time.

    Like I said in the post, Gillard had the agency here. Had she not elected to go forward, we would have been left with a bunch of never has been “powerbrokers” whining into their beers in Canberra restaurants.

    Although, once the ABC got hold of the story, that’s where the momentum effectively became unstoppable. You can again well imagine what we would have woken up to from the media on Thursday morning had Gillard quashed the unchallenge in its tracks.

    There’s no doubt at all that the media were a huge element in this, if only because Labor MPs think it’s impossible to communicate a message when the hounds are baying. Yes, they should absolutely have more courage, but that seems to be lacking.

    It is a terrible precedent to set that a leader is destroyed largely on the grounds that he couldn’t spin effectively enough, and because a lot of petty egos were hurt. This stuff about visceral anger over Jordan phoning MPs, or Karl Bitar fuming because he couldn’t get an immediate appointment with Rudd and running off to leak polling to Andrew Bolt, of all people, is just pathetic.

  70. Mark

    @27 –

    What about a third option: tell the ‘machine men’ to go screw themselves. Or a fourth: Gillard comes out in strong support of the leader and means it.

    … and that’s precisely what I was hoping would happen on Wednesday night, Ken, as I said at the time.

    Like I said in the post, Gillard had the agency here. Had she not elected to go forward, we would have been left with a bunch of never has been “powerbrokers” whining into their beers in Canberra restaurants.

    Although, once the ABC got hold of the story, that’s where the momentum effectively became unstoppable. You can again well imagine what we would have woken up to from the media on Thursday morning had Gillard quashed the unchallenge in its tracks.

    There’s no doubt at all that the media were a huge element in this, if only because Labor MPs think it’s impossible to communicate a message when the hounds are baying. Yes, they should absolutely have more courage, but that seems to be lacking.

    It is a terrible precedent to set that a leader is destroyed largely on the grounds that he couldn’t spin effectively enough, and because a lot of petty egos were hurt. This stuff about visceral anger over Jordan phoning MPs, or Karl Bitar fuming because he couldn’t get an immediate appointment with Rudd and running off to leak polling to Andrew Bolt, of all people, is just pathetic.

  71. Marlin

    Ken @32, I suppose my point might be that perhaps people should trust the ABC more because they and Uhlmann were right and many LP commenters were wrong about a challenge being on and maybe that if people could be so wrong about there actually being a challenge and that the challenege would be successful, maybe we should all be more circumspect.

  72. Marlin

    Ken @32, I suppose my point might be that perhaps people should trust the ABC more because they and Uhlmann were right and many LP commenters were wrong about a challenge being on and maybe that if people could be so wrong about there actually being a challenge and that the challenege would be successful, maybe we should all be more circumspect.

  73. Mark

    On that theme, I should mention that the anti-Rudd camp apparently believed that Rudd’s office committed a mortal sin by sending Bob Debus a text message after a caucus meeting. It wasn’t personal enough, apparently.

    This dribble is being retailed all over the place to justify ousting a Prime Minister.

    Sheesh!

  74. Mark

    On that theme, I should mention that the anti-Rudd camp apparently believed that Rudd’s office committed a mortal sin by sending Bob Debus a text message after a caucus meeting. It wasn’t personal enough, apparently.

    This dribble is being retailed all over the place to justify ousting a Prime Minister.

    Sheesh!

  75. Sam

    John @ 22

    You may well be right, but if Rudd hadn’t listened to them on the ETS then he would have been in a position of strength when he introduced the RSPT, and it wouldn’t have mattered what they thought about that.

    Rebekka @ 24, it started in NSW. Do you think that that SDA hack from South Australia could have launched this himself?

    John @30, golly gee, Gillard is ambitious and plunged the knife to become PM. So did every PM in living memory and beyond.

  76. Sam

    John @ 22

    You may well be right, but if Rudd hadn’t listened to them on the ETS then he would have been in a position of strength when he introduced the RSPT, and it wouldn’t have mattered what they thought about that.

    Rebekka @ 24, it started in NSW. Do you think that that SDA hack from South Australia could have launched this himself?

    John @30, golly gee, Gillard is ambitious and plunged the knife to become PM. So did every PM in living memory and beyond.

  77. Ron

    a “coup” ?

    Keating “damaged” Hawke A SITTING PM by his challenge being made public..in his “coup”

    But your whole false narative gets demolished because Hawke won th spill !!

    therefore 115 Labor MP’s ar not affected by public knowlege of a challenge at all , but whether polling shows incumbant is a vote loser and public is switched off incumbent and that incumbant shows no signs of improvement….a al Rudd

    this is just an exercise of anti Labor bloggers using leadership change as a lame excuse to attack Labor Party itself

    if you want a gentlemans sport in your ivory towers of unreality ethics , play book exchanges games Whereas Politcs has always been brutal , here , and all thru World

  78. Ron

    a “coup” ?

    Keating “damaged” Hawke A SITTING PM by his challenge being made public..in his “coup”

    But your whole false narative gets demolished because Hawke won th spill !!

    therefore 115 Labor MP’s ar not affected by public knowlege of a challenge at all , but whether polling shows incumbant is a vote loser and public is switched off incumbent and that incumbant shows no signs of improvement….a al Rudd

    this is just an exercise of anti Labor bloggers using leadership change as a lame excuse to attack Labor Party itself

    if you want a gentlemans sport in your ivory towers of unreality ethics , play book exchanges games Whereas Politcs has always been brutal , here , and all thru World

  79. Zorronsky

    Latest Morgan….53..47…19/20 June

  80. Zorronsky

    Latest Morgan….53..47…19/20 June

  81. murph the surf.

    You have to admit it is ironic that Albo was there at the end – the tireless warrior of the never surrender Left delivering the bullet to the head and having to clean up the bits of blood and brain himself.
    The good guys finish last again.

  82. murph the surf.

    You have to admit it is ironic that Albo was there at the end – the tireless warrior of the never surrender Left delivering the bullet to the head and having to clean up the bits of blood and brain himself.
    The good guys finish last again.

  83. john

    You’re a fucking hack, @Ron. You’re the kind we had a split to get rid of.

  84. john

    You’re a fucking hack, @Ron. You’re the kind we had a split to get rid of.

  85. Ken Lovell

    Thanks Marlin @ 35 … like I often write on student assignments, don’t just present data and hope readers draw the conclusion you expect them to. Much better to explain the point clearly.

    I largely agree with you BTW, although the corporate media does have form for promoting spurious leadership challenge narratives (e.g. the interminable Costello/Howard non-story).

  86. Ken Lovell

    Thanks Marlin @ 35 … like I often write on student assignments, don’t just present data and hope readers draw the conclusion you expect them to. Much better to explain the point clearly.

    I largely agree with you BTW, although the corporate media does have form for promoting spurious leadership challenge narratives (e.g. the interminable Costello/Howard non-story).

  87. tssk

    If it’s true that ALP members have been white anting Rudd then the ALP is doomed this election as the moment the election is called you will see the biggest series of tell all exposes printed to completely destroy the ALP.

    “Normally us journalists don’t like to reveal our sources but when such a threat to democracy comes along…”

  88. tssk

    If it’s true that ALP members have been white anting Rudd then the ALP is doomed this election as the moment the election is called you will see the biggest series of tell all exposes printed to completely destroy the ALP.

    “Normally us journalists don’t like to reveal our sources but when such a threat to democracy comes along…”

  89. Trenton

    Anybody who thinks there is some simularity between what happened in the last couple of days and what happened between Hawke and Keating in the early ninties needs to hit the history books.

    As pathetic as the excuses are about what caused this leadership spill, as we can see there are plenty of people around willing to believe in fairytales just because they are happy with the ends. They would prefer the discussion of the means to be kept to a minimum.

  90. Trenton

    Anybody who thinks there is some simularity between what happened in the last couple of days and what happened between Hawke and Keating in the early ninties needs to hit the history books.

    As pathetic as the excuses are about what caused this leadership spill, as we can see there are plenty of people around willing to believe in fairytales just because they are happy with the ends. They would prefer the discussion of the means to be kept to a minimum.

  91. Mr Denmore

    perhaps people should trust the ABC more because they and Uhlmann were right and many LP commenters were wrong about a challenge being on and maybe that if people could be so wrong about there actually being a challenge and that the challenege would be successful, maybe we should all be more circumspect.

    I think you’re confusing cause and effect. This was a coup engineered by an excitable media and non-elected appartachiks feeding off each other’s frenzied twittering and unable to see beyond the latest Newspoll.

    The reaction of ordinary disengaged voters (“how on earth did THAT happen?”; I didn’t think he was THAT bad”) tells you that this was engineered in a manufactured reality where insiders spend too much time talking to each other.

  92. Mr Denmore

    perhaps people should trust the ABC more because they and Uhlmann were right and many LP commenters were wrong about a challenge being on and maybe that if people could be so wrong about there actually being a challenge and that the challenege would be successful, maybe we should all be more circumspect.

    I think you’re confusing cause and effect. This was a coup engineered by an excitable media and non-elected appartachiks feeding off each other’s frenzied twittering and unable to see beyond the latest Newspoll.

    The reaction of ordinary disengaged voters (“how on earth did THAT happen?”; I didn’t think he was THAT bad”) tells you that this was engineered in a manufactured reality where insiders spend too much time talking to each other.

  93. Mark

    @37 and 40 – please conduct debate according to the comments policy. That includes arguing on substance, not against others because their political views differ. It also includes being civil.

  94. Mark

    @37 and 40 – please conduct debate according to the comments policy. That includes arguing on substance, not against others because their political views differ. It also includes being civil.

  95. Jacques de Molay

    Just wanted to mention all four people on the panel of The Nation last night agreed with this (Richo, van Onselen, Kernot & a Gillard biographer). They all said something had to happen (internal polling was more dire than the public polls) and that the ‘Gang of Four’ stuff in the press wasn’t accurate and that the Government was run by Rudd and his office. Supposedly they (his office) even refused to share the details of an internal poll with other caucus members.

    Rudd was a control freak and widely disliked within the party and like Rudd’s biographer said last night he was only ever popular with the public and when that changed he would come down like a house of cards because he had no factional support and so disliked. Latham said the same thing on Sky today. He and others have also noted that the only reason Rudd got in in the first place was because he hitched himself to Gillard’s factional support. He knifed Beazley, then got knifed unfortunately thats politics.

    I think most people understand that the main reason Rudd/Labor got in was because of WorkChoices. I said at the time Howard getting control of the Senate would be the end of him. The polls changed in Labor’s favour the same month the WorkChoices legislation came in (early 2006) and have no doubt despite his limitations during the campaign Beazley would’ve been PM. The Labor party disagreed and wanted to lock in victory by going to a “safe pair of hands” in Rudd.

    IMO that is what this move was about giving Labor the best possible chance of victory. I said yesterday (or the night before) I think this will lock in victory for the government even though I think they might’ve snuck home with Rudd.

    FWIW van Onselen said on Sky last night that not only does he think Gillard will win the election but that she will increase Labor’s majority.

  96. Jacques de Molay

    Just wanted to mention all four people on the panel of The Nation last night agreed with this (Richo, van Onselen, Kernot & a Gillard biographer). They all said something had to happen (internal polling was more dire than the public polls) and that the ‘Gang of Four’ stuff in the press wasn’t accurate and that the Government was run by Rudd and his office. Supposedly they (his office) even refused to share the details of an internal poll with other caucus members.

    Rudd was a control freak and widely disliked within the party and like Rudd’s biographer said last night he was only ever popular with the public and when that changed he would come down like a house of cards because he had no factional support and so disliked. Latham said the same thing on Sky today. He and others have also noted that the only reason Rudd got in in the first place was because he hitched himself to Gillard’s factional support. He knifed Beazley, then got knifed unfortunately thats politics.

    I think most people understand that the main reason Rudd/Labor got in was because of WorkChoices. I said at the time Howard getting control of the Senate would be the end of him. The polls changed in Labor’s favour the same month the WorkChoices legislation came in (early 2006) and have no doubt despite his limitations during the campaign Beazley would’ve been PM. The Labor party disagreed and wanted to lock in victory by going to a “safe pair of hands” in Rudd.

    IMO that is what this move was about giving Labor the best possible chance of victory. I said yesterday (or the night before) I think this will lock in victory for the government even though I think they might’ve snuck home with Rudd.

    FWIW van Onselen said on Sky last night that not only does he think Gillard will win the election but that she will increase Labor’s majority.

  97. hannah's dad

    From Zorronsky at #38
    “Latest Morgan….53..47…19/20 June”

    A masterpiece of pointed understatement.

    Unfortunately, or perhaps fortunately depending on your viewpoint or something else, I would expect the next Morgan to be at least 54:47, probably more, just like Newspoll and the others in that it would show an increase to the post-coup Gillard ALP government.
    Anyone else care to play the prediction game?

  98. hannah's dad

    From Zorronsky at #38
    “Latest Morgan….53..47…19/20 June”

    A masterpiece of pointed understatement.

    Unfortunately, or perhaps fortunately depending on your viewpoint or something else, I would expect the next Morgan to be at least 54:47, probably more, just like Newspoll and the others in that it would show an increase to the post-coup Gillard ALP government.
    Anyone else care to play the prediction game?

  99. Paul Burns

    Its Laura Tingle, so I believe it.
    This could go on to the election, if Labor switches completely to self-destruct mode as tssk says in 42. Somehow I don’t think it will.
    The narrative as you present it Mark is pretty disgusting. But why then were two backbenchers on TV this morning suggesting it was based on nervous nellies in the Caucus? Were they liars?
    political practice is more often ignoble than noble. Every pollie would like to be PM. Well, most.
    Meanwhile, all you Gillard bashers, shocked converted Rudd supporters, there’s this little man out there with funny ears and an exercise fetish named Tony Abbott, and maybe all you might just take a nanosecond to get off your moral high horses and remember he is the REAL enemy.

  100. Paul Burns

    Its Laura Tingle, so I believe it.
    This could go on to the election, if Labor switches completely to self-destruct mode as tssk says in 42. Somehow I don’t think it will.
    The narrative as you present it Mark is pretty disgusting. But why then were two backbenchers on TV this morning suggesting it was based on nervous nellies in the Caucus? Were they liars?
    political practice is more often ignoble than noble. Every pollie would like to be PM. Well, most.
    Meanwhile, all you Gillard bashers, shocked converted Rudd supporters, there’s this little man out there with funny ears and an exercise fetish named Tony Abbott, and maybe all you might just take a nanosecond to get off your moral high horses and remember he is the REAL enemy.

  101. tssk

    I predict massive gains for the Greens and other indy’s as well as a big increase in ALP supporters spoiling their votes in the short term.

  102. tssk

    I predict massive gains for the Greens and other indy’s as well as a big increase in ALP supporters spoiling their votes in the short term.

  103. adrian

    Yes John. When you have a situation where the slightest error is magnified out of all proportion, it is just unrealistic to assume that the disunity theme wouldn’t have spelt the end for Rudd anyway.

    Gillard could have said no, who knows if they would have found someone else – Latham reckons Swan was the next in line. In any event I think she’s going to regret this big time.

  104. adrian

    Yes John. When you have a situation where the slightest error is magnified out of all proportion, it is just unrealistic to assume that the disunity theme wouldn’t have spelt the end for Rudd anyway.

    Gillard could have said no, who knows if they would have found someone else – Latham reckons Swan was the next in line. In any event I think she’s going to regret this big time.

  105. hannah's dad

    ‘The Judean People’s Front”?

  106. hannah's dad

    ‘The Judean People’s Front”?

  107. Rebekka

    @John, #26

    “@24

    “Oh, bull***. Hawke was well behind in the polls, and the caucus was against him. ”

    so, completely unlike Rudd then /sarcasm.

  108. Rebekka

    @John, #26

    “@24

    “Oh, bull***. Hawke was well behind in the polls, and the caucus was against him. ”

    so, completely unlike Rudd then /sarcasm.

  109. John D

    I am a strong supporter of climate action and think that the country should be getting more of the super profits that are being generated by the mining industry. However, this doesn’t stop me from thinking that the CPRS had become an incredibly complex, inefficient way of driving climate change and that it would have been a lot smarter to hit the land based miners with the same system as that which had been used for offshore oil and gas for years. I also think it was appalling judgment to start talking about something like the RSPT when its introduction would have been post election.

    So perhaps it is worth asking if one of the reasons Julie decided to run was that she really believed that this was a good government that had lost its way and was finding that Rudd was not listening to anyone and was starting to lose it?

    It is also worth asking to what extent the machine men were following rather than leading the push?

    Let us see what Julie actually does – her words the other day were very carefully chosen.

    On a related matter the miners are already gloating about their power to get rid of leaders they don’t like. They are setting Abbot up to be seen as a supporter of a system where the Clive Palmers of the world taking over the country and putting Julia in a position where she would find it hard to make any real concessions.

  110. John D

    I am a strong supporter of climate action and think that the country should be getting more of the super profits that are being generated by the mining industry. However, this doesn’t stop me from thinking that the CPRS had become an incredibly complex, inefficient way of driving climate change and that it would have been a lot smarter to hit the land based miners with the same system as that which had been used for offshore oil and gas for years. I also think it was appalling judgment to start talking about something like the RSPT when its introduction would have been post election.

    So perhaps it is worth asking if one of the reasons Julie decided to run was that she really believed that this was a good government that had lost its way and was finding that Rudd was not listening to anyone and was starting to lose it?

    It is also worth asking to what extent the machine men were following rather than leading the push?

    Let us see what Julie actually does – her words the other day were very carefully chosen.

    On a related matter the miners are already gloating about their power to get rid of leaders they don’t like. They are setting Abbot up to be seen as a supporter of a system where the Clive Palmers of the world taking over the country and putting Julia in a position where she would find it hard to make any real concessions.

  111. Senexx

    Many of us have said it is the press gallery, the media that assisted in this but now the challenge is to name names and present evidence.

  112. Senexx

    Many of us have said it is the press gallery, the media that assisted in this but now the challenge is to name names and present evidence.

  113. dave

    I heard about the spill around 820pm on wednesday night, unfortunately I was a mile from any technology other than my 20th century fone. By the time I got back it was all over. Of all the things said here, the one I find most agreeable is the idea that if Gillard had stayed loyal to Rudd there would be nothing to talk about. It smells of rank opportunism.

    I wont be voting ALP, haven’t for some time despite once being a member and married to family of ALP members. They are better than the other mob in some respects but if they prefer to waste all this energy on palace coups instead of getting on with the job they were elected to do then my vote will go to a party with some spine, rather than the ones with spin.

  114. dave

    I heard about the spill around 820pm on wednesday night, unfortunately I was a mile from any technology other than my 20th century fone. By the time I got back it was all over. Of all the things said here, the one I find most agreeable is the idea that if Gillard had stayed loyal to Rudd there would be nothing to talk about. It smells of rank opportunism.

    I wont be voting ALP, haven’t for some time despite once being a member and married to family of ALP members. They are better than the other mob in some respects but if they prefer to waste all this energy on palace coups instead of getting on with the job they were elected to do then my vote will go to a party with some spine, rather than the ones with spin.

  115. adrian

    ‘They are setting Abbot up to be seen as a supporter of a system where the Clive Palmers of the world taking over the country and putting Julia in a position where she would find it hard to make any real concessions.’

    No, you got that part wrong – she’ll make concessions alright. That’s one of the reasons this whole fiasco happened. Excpect them sooner rather than later.

  116. adrian

    ‘They are setting Abbot up to be seen as a supporter of a system where the Clive Palmers of the world taking over the country and putting Julia in a position where she would find it hard to make any real concessions.’

    No, you got that part wrong – she’ll make concessions alright. That’s one of the reasons this whole fiasco happened. Excpect them sooner rather than later.

  117. Pavlov's Cat

    This from Barrie Cassidy at The Drum:

    On Friday of last week, the party’s national secretary, Karl Bitar, went to Rudd’s Parliament House office with internal party polling that showed just how bad the situation had become in marginal Queensland seats. He wanted to present the material to the prime minister himself. Remarkably, Rudd’s 31-year-old chief of staff, Alistair Jordan, didn’t allow that to happen.

    He told Bitar to lock the polling away and show it to nobody.

    An astonished Bitar told Jordan the polling didn’t belong to the prime minister; it belonged to the Labor Party, and he left the office.

    … Jordan then made phone calls and walked Parliament House trying to get a sounding on the support within caucus for Rudd, a task that would ordinarily fall to MPs, and experienced ones at that. And ordinarily, it would not have happened unless there was at least a sniff of a challenge from somewhere.

    Then the fires were stoked when his efforts turned up as a front page story in the Sydney Morning Herald. Gillard was particularly affronted by that development, seeing it as loyalty rewarded by treachery. The episode was compounded just before Question Time when Rudd walked around to Gillard’s office and confronted her personally on her own patch. Apparently, the words that were exchanged left Gillard upset.

    Thank Goddess someone has finally explained clearly exactly what part Alister (NB spelling: Barrie, Google is your friend) Jordan played all of this; it should be remembered that Rudd had his own contingent of powerful ‘faceless men’. And any experienced professional woman over 40 knows exactly what it’s like to be ignored, belittled and/or humiliated by the boss’s golden boy, because it happens all the time. Maybe Shorten et al got wind of Gillard’s feelings and saw it as their chance, but if there was indeed such a chink in the armour of her loyalty then perhaps Rudd has only himself to blame for putting it there.

  118. Pavlov's Cat

    This from Barrie Cassidy at The Drum:

    On Friday of last week, the party’s national secretary, Karl Bitar, went to Rudd’s Parliament House office with internal party polling that showed just how bad the situation had become in marginal Queensland seats. He wanted to present the material to the prime minister himself. Remarkably, Rudd’s 31-year-old chief of staff, Alistair Jordan, didn’t allow that to happen.

    He told Bitar to lock the polling away and show it to nobody.

    An astonished Bitar told Jordan the polling didn’t belong to the prime minister; it belonged to the Labor Party, and he left the office.

    … Jordan then made phone calls and walked Parliament House trying to get a sounding on the support within caucus for Rudd, a task that would ordinarily fall to MPs, and experienced ones at that. And ordinarily, it would not have happened unless there was at least a sniff of a challenge from somewhere.

    Then the fires were stoked when his efforts turned up as a front page story in the Sydney Morning Herald. Gillard was particularly affronted by that development, seeing it as loyalty rewarded by treachery. The episode was compounded just before Question Time when Rudd walked around to Gillard’s office and confronted her personally on her own patch. Apparently, the words that were exchanged left Gillard upset.

    Thank Goddess someone has finally explained clearly exactly what part Alister (NB spelling: Barrie, Google is your friend) Jordan played all of this; it should be remembered that Rudd had his own contingent of powerful ‘faceless men’. And any experienced professional woman over 40 knows exactly what it’s like to be ignored, belittled and/or humiliated by the boss’s golden boy, because it happens all the time. Maybe Shorten et al got wind of Gillard’s feelings and saw it as their chance, but if there was indeed such a chink in the armour of her loyalty then perhaps Rudd has only himself to blame for putting it there.

  119. Mercurius

    When will Gillard’s turkeys realise they’be taken the bait that the Murdochracy laid out for them? News Ltd and the ABC have been calling for Rudd’s head for weeks because they knew he could win the election. Now the bosses have got the PM they wanted.

    F**k these backroom cowboys and the horses they rode in on.

    In both major parties, the cynics have defeated the progressives. Rudd and Turnbull, get it together and give us a new party. Take back the vote.

    At least with Abbott as PM we’ll know who the enemy is, and why.

    MH @ 4:

    None of this explains Rudd’s astonishing lack of support within the party, though.

    What difference would that have made? This PM is brought to you by Mark Arbib, the AWU, and Twiggy Forrest. The elected caucus were left standing around like spare dicks at a wedding. Read the article again, this time for comprehension.

    Zorronsky @ 40: That 53/47 Morgan poll was taken before Rudd’s fall.

    So the ALP 2PP vote in the last five major polls of Rudd’s Prime Ministerial career were as follows:

    (Newspoll)
    49
    50
    51
    52
    (Morgan)
    53.

    And they gutted him. The English language, usually an inexhaustible source of profantities, doesn’t begin to cover this clusterfuck.

  120. Mercurius

    When will Gillard’s turkeys realise they’be taken the bait that the Murdochracy laid out for them? News Ltd and the ABC have been calling for Rudd’s head for weeks because they knew he could win the election. Now the bosses have got the PM they wanted.

    F**k these backroom cowboys and the horses they rode in on.

    In both major parties, the cynics have defeated the progressives. Rudd and Turnbull, get it together and give us a new party. Take back the vote.

    At least with Abbott as PM we’ll know who the enemy is, and why.

    MH @ 4:

    None of this explains Rudd’s astonishing lack of support within the party, though.

    What difference would that have made? This PM is brought to you by Mark Arbib, the AWU, and Twiggy Forrest. The elected caucus were left standing around like spare dicks at a wedding. Read the article again, this time for comprehension.

    Zorronsky @ 40: That 53/47 Morgan poll was taken before Rudd’s fall.

    So the ALP 2PP vote in the last five major polls of Rudd’s Prime Ministerial career were as follows:

    (Newspoll)
    49
    50
    51
    52
    (Morgan)
    53.

    And they gutted him. The English language, usually an inexhaustible source of profantities, doesn’t begin to cover this clusterfuck.

  121. Mark

    @59 – Maybe so, Dr Cat, but Cassidy doesn’t mention what Bitar then did with the said polling, which was to go and leak it to Andrew Bolt (who incidentally today is preparing the ground to retreat from his pro-Gillard stance, now that she’s actually the PM).

    The other part of the story, not reported by Cassidy because it doesn’t fit the narrative, is that Bitar is said to have been abusive and aggressive towards Jordan, and to be miffed that he couldn’t get an immediate appointment. The brush-off about the polling is a contested interpretation.

    There’s a lot of anger about in parliament house, it seems.

    The reports about how angry Gillard became when reading of the article about Jordan made me think of a certain essay by David Marr.

    I should add that there’s nothing particularly unusual, as a heap of people have observed, in having a staffer phone around to gauge support.

  122. Mark

    @59 – Maybe so, Dr Cat, but Cassidy doesn’t mention what Bitar then did with the said polling, which was to go and leak it to Andrew Bolt (who incidentally today is preparing the ground to retreat from his pro-Gillard stance, now that she’s actually the PM).

    The other part of the story, not reported by Cassidy because it doesn’t fit the narrative, is that Bitar is said to have been abusive and aggressive towards Jordan, and to be miffed that he couldn’t get an immediate appointment. The brush-off about the polling is a contested interpretation.

    There’s a lot of anger about in parliament house, it seems.

    The reports about how angry Gillard became when reading of the article about Jordan made me think of a certain essay by David Marr.

    I should add that there’s nothing particularly unusual, as a heap of people have observed, in having a staffer phone around to gauge support.

  123. Trenton

    The improving poll numbers illustrated why they had to move quickly lol.

  124. Trenton

    The improving poll numbers illustrated why they had to move quickly lol.

  125. Mark

    @62 – That’s actually probably right, Trenton. I think Rudd *had* turned the corner. The RSPT fight was dying down, the miners were beginning to splinter, the government had just signed major agreements with China, we had parental leave legislation passed and the NBN-Telstra deal announced. Rudd was working on alternatives to the CPRS. This week we’ve had renewable energy changes, and some progress on whaling, though that’s been completely drowned out, of course.

    It wouldn’t have surprised me in the slightest if the next bloody Newspoll had left egg all over its owners’ faces.

  126. Mark

    @62 – That’s actually probably right, Trenton. I think Rudd *had* turned the corner. The RSPT fight was dying down, the miners were beginning to splinter, the government had just signed major agreements with China, we had parental leave legislation passed and the NBN-Telstra deal announced. Rudd was working on alternatives to the CPRS. This week we’ve had renewable energy changes, and some progress on whaling, though that’s been completely drowned out, of course.

    It wouldn’t have surprised me in the slightest if the next bloody Newspoll had left egg all over its owners’ faces.

  127. Mark

    Btw, someone might care to explain to me how the things I just mentioned @63 constituted a dying government on the ropes, or whatever the official excuse for overthrowing Rudd is.

  128. Mark

    Btw, someone might care to explain to me how the things I just mentioned @63 constituted a dying government on the ropes, or whatever the official excuse for overthrowing Rudd is.

  129. Mercurius

    In my little bucolic slice of rural heaven, all my female colleagues, most of whom are a few years north of Julia’s age and have dealt with far more sexism than she has, are giving her short shrift. They didn’t have much time for Rudd, until 24 hours ago.

    I see a lot of broken eggs, but no omelette.

  130. Mercurius

    In my little bucolic slice of rural heaven, all my female colleagues, most of whom are a few years north of Julia’s age and have dealt with far more sexism than she has, are giving her short shrift. They didn’t have much time for Rudd, until 24 hours ago.

    I see a lot of broken eggs, but no omelette.

  131. Zorronsky

    Mercurius I did include the dates so I presumed most people would be able to work out that the poll was pre spill.

  132. Zorronsky

    Mercurius I did include the dates so I presumed most people would be able to work out that the poll was pre spill.

  133. Spana

    What the disgusting move against Rudd shows is that the culture of the ALP is cruel, unforgiving and devoid of any ethics. Gillard has shown that she is a ruthless and opportunistic operator who is in love with power and power alone. One must ask if people who are so ruthless and callous have any place in running this country. Gillard has her fingerprints on all of Rudd’s policies and can’t claim to be better.

    The move shows
    1. The ALP views it leader as a position in a high school popularity contest.
    2. Gillard stands for little. She is an intellectual light weight compared to Rudd.
    3. Women are no better than men in their power lust and callousness.

    Bring on the election. Go ABBOTT!

  134. Spana

    What the disgusting move against Rudd shows is that the culture of the ALP is cruel, unforgiving and devoid of any ethics. Gillard has shown that she is a ruthless and opportunistic operator who is in love with power and power alone. One must ask if people who are so ruthless and callous have any place in running this country. Gillard has her fingerprints on all of Rudd’s policies and can’t claim to be better.

    The move shows
    1. The ALP views it leader as a position in a high school popularity contest.
    2. Gillard stands for little. She is an intellectual light weight compared to Rudd.
    3. Women are no better than men in their power lust and callousness.

    Bring on the election. Go ABBOTT!

  135. Mercurius

    Cheers Zorronsky. Unless they had a couple under their belt! 😉

  136. Mercurius

    Cheers Zorronsky. Unless they had a couple under their belt! 😉

  137. Pavlov's Cat

    Cassidy doesn’t mention what Bitar then did with the said polling, which was to go and leak it to Andrew Bolt

    That’s my bad, Mark, for the way I quoted. Cassidy does at least mention that, though not in the terms you frame it in and not necessarily as a direct leak from Bitar. It’s one of the bits I omitted (as indicted by the ellipses), naively and without thinking of the implications, because the quotation was really too long to post entire and I was focusing on the Jordan narrative. There’s a link there though if you want to go and have a look.

    I’m not taking sides here as the whole thing is obviously incredibly complex, but I do think Gillard is getting a raw deal in most accounts of what happened, especially from people who already hated the NSW Right.

  138. Pavlov's Cat

    Cassidy doesn’t mention what Bitar then did with the said polling, which was to go and leak it to Andrew Bolt

    That’s my bad, Mark, for the way I quoted. Cassidy does at least mention that, though not in the terms you frame it in and not necessarily as a direct leak from Bitar. It’s one of the bits I omitted (as indicted by the ellipses), naively and without thinking of the implications, because the quotation was really too long to post entire and I was focusing on the Jordan narrative. There’s a link there though if you want to go and have a look.

    I’m not taking sides here as the whole thing is obviously incredibly complex, but I do think Gillard is getting a raw deal in most accounts of what happened, especially from people who already hated the NSW Right.

  139. Tyro Rex

    There is a long tradition that after such a coup, all can be forgiven, except for the actual assassins who are punished by the new regime, no matter the benefit of the new ruler from the very assassination.

    I quote:

    As soon as his power was firmly established, he considered it of foremost importance to obliterate the memory of the two days when men had thought of changing the form of government. Accordingly he made a decree that all that had been done and said during that period should be pardoned and forever forgotten; he kept his word too, save only that a few of the tribunes* and centurions who had conspired against Gaius were put to death, to make an example of them …
    – Suetonius – Claudius 11

    * Cassius Chaerea and Cornelius Sabinus. I’d propose that Arbib and Bitar could fill the role of these two.

  140. Tyro Rex

    There is a long tradition that after such a coup, all can be forgiven, except for the actual assassins who are punished by the new regime, no matter the benefit of the new ruler from the very assassination.

    I quote:

    As soon as his power was firmly established, he considered it of foremost importance to obliterate the memory of the two days when men had thought of changing the form of government. Accordingly he made a decree that all that had been done and said during that period should be pardoned and forever forgotten; he kept his word too, save only that a few of the tribunes* and centurions who had conspired against Gaius were put to death, to make an example of them …
    – Suetonius – Claudius 11

    * Cassius Chaerea and Cornelius Sabinus. I’d propose that Arbib and Bitar could fill the role of these two.

  141. Mark

    Incidentally, on my point @61, I’ve been feeling very angry about this putsch, as well as very sad and disillusioned, over the past few days. I doubt that these emotions define my personality and my professional goals, and I wonder what David Marr and all those others who specialise in the instant interpretation of character based on momentary slices of life would deal with that.

    Jeff Sparrow on the personalisation of politics is a piece I’ve linked to before, and I’ll do it again:

    http://www.abc.net.au/unleashed/stories/s2936343.htm

  142. Mark

    Incidentally, on my point @61, I’ve been feeling very angry about this putsch, as well as very sad and disillusioned, over the past few days. I doubt that these emotions define my personality and my professional goals, and I wonder what David Marr and all those others who specialise in the instant interpretation of character based on momentary slices of life would deal with that.

    Jeff Sparrow on the personalisation of politics is a piece I’ve linked to before, and I’ll do it again:

    http://www.abc.net.au/unleashed/stories/s2936343.htm

  143. Nickws

    but Cassidy doesn’t mention what Bitar then did with the said polling, which was to go and leak it to Andrew Bolt (who incidentally today is preparing the ground to retreat from his pro-Gillard stance, now that she’s actually the PM).

    That would seem like the craziest thing to do, because of course Bolt is a genuine fucking insane chauvinist pig, not a strawman chauvinist pig. Seriously, there is no Rightwing Labor hack that comes anywhere close to Bolt’s dedication to the reintroduction of the coathangar (hmmm, am I being too subtle?)

    But… clever Labor hack national secretary obviously figured out the same thing many else have—Andrew Bolt is the one commentariat figure who did the most to facilitate the near-coup against John Howard in 2007. Yes, this time Bolt couldn’t appeal to ALP MPs as a party loyalist, but he could create a sound and fury signifying something among the rest of the meeja—“Hmmm, Bolt obviously doesn’t have a dog in this fight, so when he says Rudd is doomed he must be basing his opinion on reliable sources.” (Yes, I think the likes of Barrie Cassidy and Michelle Grattan are capable of such stupidity.)

    The Age today is a thing to behold. The triumphalism is astounding. It’s as if Australia just inaugurated a new president. Nary a mention of a broken down loser, of a swift, bloody execution.

    Honest to god, until Leunig goes batshit crazy over something or else perpetuated by the terrible reactionary worse-than-Howard new PM don’t expect that paper to get anywhere close to the Fin’s critical take on all of this.

  144. Nickws

    but Cassidy doesn’t mention what Bitar then did with the said polling, which was to go and leak it to Andrew Bolt (who incidentally today is preparing the ground to retreat from his pro-Gillard stance, now that she’s actually the PM).

    That would seem like the craziest thing to do, because of course Bolt is a genuine fucking insane chauvinist pig, not a strawman chauvinist pig. Seriously, there is no Rightwing Labor hack that comes anywhere close to Bolt’s dedication to the reintroduction of the coathangar (hmmm, am I being too subtle?)

    But… clever Labor hack national secretary obviously figured out the same thing many else have—Andrew Bolt is the one commentariat figure who did the most to facilitate the near-coup against John Howard in 2007. Yes, this time Bolt couldn’t appeal to ALP MPs as a party loyalist, but he could create a sound and fury signifying something among the rest of the meeja—“Hmmm, Bolt obviously doesn’t have a dog in this fight, so when he says Rudd is doomed he must be basing his opinion on reliable sources.” (Yes, I think the likes of Barrie Cassidy and Michelle Grattan are capable of such stupidity.)

    The Age today is a thing to behold. The triumphalism is astounding. It’s as if Australia just inaugurated a new president. Nary a mention of a broken down loser, of a swift, bloody execution.

    Honest to god, until Leunig goes batshit crazy over something or else perpetuated by the terrible reactionary worse-than-Howard new PM don’t expect that paper to get anywhere close to the Fin’s critical take on all of this.

  145. Pavlov's Cat

    Sorry, those first two lines @ #65 are supposed be be in blockquote tags, dammit.

  146. Pavlov's Cat

    Sorry, those first two lines @ #65 are supposed be be in blockquote tags, dammit.

  147. Spana

    Gillard or Rudd is not really yhe issue. The question is do we really want shady faction leaders alongside dodgy union figures such as Paul Howes (who is looking like he want to set himself up for parliament) deciding who runs the country. I used to be in the ALP but quit because of the horrific factional deals. Gillard is muddied with these dirty dealings. Any party that allows itslef to be controlled by these shady figures does not deserve power. Any leader who allows themselves to be put in power by them stands for nothing and should be opposed by anyone of principle.

    Gillard must go. She represents the worst of the ALP.

  148. Spana

    Gillard or Rudd is not really yhe issue. The question is do we really want shady faction leaders alongside dodgy union figures such as Paul Howes (who is looking like he want to set himself up for parliament) deciding who runs the country. I used to be in the ALP but quit because of the horrific factional deals. Gillard is muddied with these dirty dealings. Any party that allows itslef to be controlled by these shady figures does not deserve power. Any leader who allows themselves to be put in power by them stands for nothing and should be opposed by anyone of principle.

    Gillard must go. She represents the worst of the ALP.

  149. zoot

    Ute Man @25: thanks for the link. Message delivered.

  150. zoot

    Ute Man @25: thanks for the link. Message delivered.

  151. Mark

    @75 – fixed, Dr Cat.

    I hadn’t read the whole Cassidy piece – there’s been a lot to read over the past few days.

    Just by the by, I think Jonathan Green has done a really good job in getting so many people to write on so many different angles of these events at The Drum.

    I think my main point on all this talk about people being offended by phone calls, having to wait in the antechamber, getting text messages which weren’t personal enough, or whatever, is that whether or not Kevin Rudd’s personal relationships were what they may have been, adults should understand that the PM doesn’t have the time to attend to their sense of what is due them in some sort of party hierarchy. John Howard successfully managed his party room in large part through using staffers to keep backbenchers sweet. Maybe Rudd should have done that, too. But I think Julia Gillard will find that she simply doesn’t have the time to be PM and to sit around chewing the fat with MPs or whatever.

    Speaking of which, I found the reports of right wing Senators forming a dining club to bitch about how much they hated Kevin Rudd very distasteful.

    Most of these characters will never attain the heights of public service Rudd has contributed to this nation, and never could, whatever the former PM’s failings are.

  152. Mark

    @75 – fixed, Dr Cat.

    I hadn’t read the whole Cassidy piece – there’s been a lot to read over the past few days.

    Just by the by, I think Jonathan Green has done a really good job in getting so many people to write on so many different angles of these events at The Drum.

    I think my main point on all this talk about people being offended by phone calls, having to wait in the antechamber, getting text messages which weren’t personal enough, or whatever, is that whether or not Kevin Rudd’s personal relationships were what they may have been, adults should understand that the PM doesn’t have the time to attend to their sense of what is due them in some sort of party hierarchy. John Howard successfully managed his party room in large part through using staffers to keep backbenchers sweet. Maybe Rudd should have done that, too. But I think Julia Gillard will find that she simply doesn’t have the time to be PM and to sit around chewing the fat with MPs or whatever.

    Speaking of which, I found the reports of right wing Senators forming a dining club to bitch about how much they hated Kevin Rudd very distasteful.

    Most of these characters will never attain the heights of public service Rudd has contributed to this nation, and never could, whatever the former PM’s failings are.

  153. Sam

    “The Age today is a thing to behold. The triumphalism is astounding.”

    Gillard is from Victoria, the natural home of Prime Ministers.

  154. Sam

    “The Age today is a thing to behold. The triumphalism is astounding.”

    Gillard is from Victoria, the natural home of Prime Ministers.

  155. FDB

    “John Howard successfully managed his party room in large part through using staffers to keep backbenchers sweet. Maybe Rudd should have done that, too.”

    Well, what else are they for?

  156. FDB

    “John Howard successfully managed his party room in large part through using staffers to keep backbenchers sweet. Maybe Rudd should have done that, too.”

    Well, what else are they for?

  157. Ken Lovell

    ‘The Age today is a thing to behold. The triumphalism is astounding. It’s as if Australia just inaugurated a new president. Nary a mention of a broken down loser, of a swift, bloody execution.’

    I guess they could just barely cop 12 years of rule from NSW under the Libs but the prospect of an indefinite period under a Queenslander was intolerable.

    Mark and Trenton @ 62/63 I’m convinced you’re right. The grubs saw the opportunity to shaft Rudd slipping away as he returned to more normal poll results, and pulled on the coup. But why caucus acted like a pack of demoralised bystanders remains a mystery.

    The sight of Labor ‘leaders’ wetting their pants, teeth chattering in very fear, because the government has upset some powerful corporations must have old-time party members bringing up their dinners. Malcolm Fraser resigned from the Liberal Party because he could no longer stomach what it stood for; maybe Gough can balance the ledger by resigning from the ALP.

  158. Ken Lovell

    ‘The Age today is a thing to behold. The triumphalism is astounding. It’s as if Australia just inaugurated a new president. Nary a mention of a broken down loser, of a swift, bloody execution.’

    I guess they could just barely cop 12 years of rule from NSW under the Libs but the prospect of an indefinite period under a Queenslander was intolerable.

    Mark and Trenton @ 62/63 I’m convinced you’re right. The grubs saw the opportunity to shaft Rudd slipping away as he returned to more normal poll results, and pulled on the coup. But why caucus acted like a pack of demoralised bystanders remains a mystery.

    The sight of Labor ‘leaders’ wetting their pants, teeth chattering in very fear, because the government has upset some powerful corporations must have old-time party members bringing up their dinners. Malcolm Fraser resigned from the Liberal Party because he could no longer stomach what it stood for; maybe Gough can balance the ledger by resigning from the ALP.

  159. Fran Barlow

    Merc said:

    F**k these backroom cowboys and the horses they rode in on

    Now there’s an unsavoury image … unpleasant all round, and as someone who cares about the well-being of animals … I must object …

    I’d let the cowboys make their own arrangements and the horses ought to be left in peace to graze unmolested some place nice.

  160. Fran Barlow

    Merc said:

    F**k these backroom cowboys and the horses they rode in on

    Now there’s an unsavoury image … unpleasant all round, and as someone who cares about the well-being of animals … I must object …

    I’d let the cowboys make their own arrangements and the horses ought to be left in peace to graze unmolested some place nice.

  161. Pavlov's Cat

    Mark, I think the Cassidy piece is pretty new anyway — I just happened on it while doing the rounds.

    Agree absolutely about the dining club, BTW, though I hadn’t seen that. not just distasteful but rooly rooly stupid, surely.

    Sam, Gillard is actually from South Australia, like Bob Hawke.

  162. Pavlov's Cat

    Mark, I think the Cassidy piece is pretty new anyway — I just happened on it while doing the rounds.

    Agree absolutely about the dining club, BTW, though I hadn’t seen that. not just distasteful but rooly rooly stupid, surely.

    Sam, Gillard is actually from South Australia, like Bob Hawke.

  163. Zorronsky

    Mark your pain and anger is plain and I went to bed on the 23rd feeling exactly the same. As I pointed out the following day tho’ I’m Labor and I wanted to emphasize the importance of putting those feelings aside to acknowledge the state of play and that because, like so many others, I have felt for a long time that Julia Gillard would make a wonderful PM and spokesperson for Labor. I haven’t changed my mind and hope sincerely that we who believe that a LNP Government would be a disaster, can put aside our disappointment and get behind the only alternative for Australia.

  164. Zorronsky

    Mark your pain and anger is plain and I went to bed on the 23rd feeling exactly the same. As I pointed out the following day tho’ I’m Labor and I wanted to emphasize the importance of putting those feelings aside to acknowledge the state of play and that because, like so many others, I have felt for a long time that Julia Gillard would make a wonderful PM and spokesperson for Labor. I haven’t changed my mind and hope sincerely that we who believe that a LNP Government would be a disaster, can put aside our disappointment and get behind the only alternative for Australia.

  165. Nickws

    Sam @ 77, I think they’ve gone beyond the call of duty. As I subscribe to idea that the elite media have not been at all removed from these events there’s only one conclusion I can make.

    Today’s Gillard wraparound-and-more is Mission Accomplished for The Age.

    Don’t know if they would have been as enthusastic for Sir Peter in 2007.

    2003, when Howard was supposed to stand down and the hapless Crean was Opposition leader? Yeah, I can see them barring up over that if it had transpired.

  166. Nickws

    Sam @ 77, I think they’ve gone beyond the call of duty. As I subscribe to idea that the elite media have not been at all removed from these events there’s only one conclusion I can make.

    Today’s Gillard wraparound-and-more is Mission Accomplished for The Age.

    Don’t know if they would have been as enthusastic for Sir Peter in 2007.

    2003, when Howard was supposed to stand down and the hapless Crean was Opposition leader? Yeah, I can see them barring up over that if it had transpired.

  167. CMMC

    Mark, you have to recognise the tidal wave of calumny that was swamping the Government- personified by the person of Rudd.

    I occasionally listen to talkback radio wingnut Alan Jones to get the popular right-wing meme in it’s purest form. And it is total misinformation, every single dollar spent on the BER, Insulation and stimulus bonuses has been wasted. The National Broadband Network and health funding reform? Ditto.

    You can’t tell the same lies twice, however.

  168. CMMC

    Mark, you have to recognise the tidal wave of calumny that was swamping the Government- personified by the person of Rudd.

    I occasionally listen to talkback radio wingnut Alan Jones to get the popular right-wing meme in it’s purest form. And it is total misinformation, every single dollar spent on the BER, Insulation and stimulus bonuses has been wasted. The National Broadband Network and health funding reform? Ditto.

    You can’t tell the same lies twice, however.

  169. tigtog

    @PC #69

    I’m not taking sides here as the whole thing is obviously incredibly complex, but I do think Gillard is getting a raw deal in most accounts of what happened, especially from people who already hated the NSW Right.

    Spot on. I’m not thrilled by the furtive speed of the backroom dealings, but by the same coin I do not think that Gillard is all that badly tarnished by them. She’s no innocent wallflower, but she’s not Machiavelli either – just a talented and ambitious politician who took a chance.

  170. tigtog

    @PC #69

    I’m not taking sides here as the whole thing is obviously incredibly complex, but I do think Gillard is getting a raw deal in most accounts of what happened, especially from people who already hated the NSW Right.

    Spot on. I’m not thrilled by the furtive speed of the backroom dealings, but by the same coin I do not think that Gillard is all that badly tarnished by them. She’s no innocent wallflower, but she’s not Machiavelli either – just a talented and ambitious politician who took a chance.

  171. tigtog

    @Spana

    [snip spin]
    Bring on the election. Go ABBOTT!

    I am shocked, shocked I tell you, to find a widely suspected agenda finally revealed in this establishment!

  172. tigtog

    @Spana

    [snip spin]
    Bring on the election. Go ABBOTT!

    I am shocked, shocked I tell you, to find a widely suspected agenda finally revealed in this establishment!

  173. skibum

    Spana,

    Gillard is the issue. Our new PM may well have been up to her eyeballs in plotting. The serious attempts today to ensure the recorded history of this is kind to her is just too confected.

    The plotters in this know the media too well. Their strategic and effective leaking over the last few months is demonstrable of this. The planning now will be focussed on how many Woman’s Day, Womens Weekly, etc covers they can score before the election (and keep the same media off featuring Abbott’s family). They’ll seek to reach some trouble demographics with targeted (and very kind) free coverage before starting the campaign proper. Working the traditional media cycle takes more advanced planning than social media. There is no way in hell they are just getting this now.

  174. skibum

    Spana,

    Gillard is the issue. Our new PM may well have been up to her eyeballs in plotting. The serious attempts today to ensure the recorded history of this is kind to her is just too confected.

    The plotters in this know the media too well. Their strategic and effective leaking over the last few months is demonstrable of this. The planning now will be focussed on how many Woman’s Day, Womens Weekly, etc covers they can score before the election (and keep the same media off featuring Abbott’s family). They’ll seek to reach some trouble demographics with targeted (and very kind) free coverage before starting the campaign proper. Working the traditional media cycle takes more advanced planning than social media. There is no way in hell they are just getting this now.

  175. Mark

    @81 – I think there might have been two Cassidy pieces, Dr Cat.

    @79 –

    The sight of Labor ‘leaders’ wetting their pants, teeth chattering in very fear, because the government has upset some powerful corporations must have old-time party members bringing up their dinners. Malcolm Fraser resigned from the Liberal Party because he could no longer stomach what it stood for; maybe Gough can balance the ledger by resigning from the ALP.

    Ken – this from Trevor Cook:

    And he deserved to go to the next election as PM. When I was growing up, so long ago now, the ALP was the party of ideas and soul. It lost more than it won – but its failings were endearing. The ALP had soul. It loved its leaders. It was motivated by ideas, as well as the pursuit of power. It was ever-likely to tear itself apart about some principle or policy. It was infuriating, but it was also something that deserved the lifelong loyalty of many Australians through thick and thin. A leader under fire from mining billionaires and the Murdoch media would have become a Labor legend not a pariah. I know those days are gone, but I think we have lost a lot with their passing.

    Rudd was also scapegoated. The narrative is that it is all about Rudd, without him the story goes the ALP will romp in. I’m not convinced. Rudd’s popularity collapse was prompted by policy changes notably the ETS background and the mining tax which were Gillard’s and Swan’s as much as they were Rudd’s. In addition, the ALP’s TPP vote improved in the last of the 4 Newspolls. Some secret polls conducted by the NSW ALP and / or the AWU apparently show a disaster not evident in the published polls.

    So the ALP panicked. The official reason was that the government had lost its way. That’s what happens when you’ve got no soul. It hopes the assassination of Kevin Rudd will boost its chances. I doubt it. They will have to gut the mining tax and toughen the asylum seekers policy. If that doesn’t work – then what? The ALP has handed Tony Abbott a huge win. Opposition leaders don’t often provoke Governments to dump incumbent PMs, because its an obvious sign of weakness and panic. The ALP has mired itself again in factionalism, faceless men and external union influence. Very big negatives with swinging voters.

    @82 – Zorronsky, the above para from Trevor Cook sums up why it’s hard for me to maintain any faith in the Labor party now, not to mention the way Anna Bligh has trashed Labor beliefs and ideology in Queensland. It’s getting very difficult to keep the faith and summon up the mindset to rally around the standard if the only argument is one about the lesser of two evils.

    Having said all that, I’ll wait and see what Gillard actually does.

    But it would be wrong to think that this stuff doesn’t leave wounds among Labor supporters. The cheersquad who want to push the message of “it’s all good, this is the new reality, get behind it” really need to understand that.

  176. Mark

    @81 – I think there might have been two Cassidy pieces, Dr Cat.

    @79 –

    The sight of Labor ‘leaders’ wetting their pants, teeth chattering in very fear, because the government has upset some powerful corporations must have old-time party members bringing up their dinners. Malcolm Fraser resigned from the Liberal Party because he could no longer stomach what it stood for; maybe Gough can balance the ledger by resigning from the ALP.

    Ken – this from Trevor Cook:

    And he deserved to go to the next election as PM. When I was growing up, so long ago now, the ALP was the party of ideas and soul. It lost more than it won – but its failings were endearing. The ALP had soul. It loved its leaders. It was motivated by ideas, as well as the pursuit of power. It was ever-likely to tear itself apart about some principle or policy. It was infuriating, but it was also something that deserved the lifelong loyalty of many Australians through thick and thin. A leader under fire from mining billionaires and the Murdoch media would have become a Labor legend not a pariah. I know those days are gone, but I think we have lost a lot with their passing.

    Rudd was also scapegoated. The narrative is that it is all about Rudd, without him the story goes the ALP will romp in. I’m not convinced. Rudd’s popularity collapse was prompted by policy changes notably the ETS background and the mining tax which were Gillard’s and Swan’s as much as they were Rudd’s. In addition, the ALP’s TPP vote improved in the last of the 4 Newspolls. Some secret polls conducted by the NSW ALP and / or the AWU apparently show a disaster not evident in the published polls.

    So the ALP panicked. The official reason was that the government had lost its way. That’s what happens when you’ve got no soul. It hopes the assassination of Kevin Rudd will boost its chances. I doubt it. They will have to gut the mining tax and toughen the asylum seekers policy. If that doesn’t work – then what? The ALP has handed Tony Abbott a huge win. Opposition leaders don’t often provoke Governments to dump incumbent PMs, because its an obvious sign of weakness and panic. The ALP has mired itself again in factionalism, faceless men and external union influence. Very big negatives with swinging voters.

    @82 – Zorronsky, the above para from Trevor Cook sums up why it’s hard for me to maintain any faith in the Labor party now, not to mention the way Anna Bligh has trashed Labor beliefs and ideology in Queensland. It’s getting very difficult to keep the faith and summon up the mindset to rally around the standard if the only argument is one about the lesser of two evils.

    Having said all that, I’ll wait and see what Gillard actually does.

    But it would be wrong to think that this stuff doesn’t leave wounds among Labor supporters. The cheersquad who want to push the message of “it’s all good, this is the new reality, get behind it” really need to understand that.

  177. Mark

    @84 – CMMC –

    You can’t tell the same lies twice, however.

    Oh, I don’t know that at all. The Libs and the press will ramp it all up again, with the argument that Gillard was central to all the decisions. I expect we’ll be reading even more stuff about the BER as well.

  178. Mark

    @84 – CMMC –

    You can’t tell the same lies twice, however.

    Oh, I don’t know that at all. The Libs and the press will ramp it all up again, with the argument that Gillard was central to all the decisions. I expect we’ll be reading even more stuff about the BER as well.

  179. Aleisha

    Great article, thanks for providing it. Totally agree with everything you have said.

    This is a shameful day for Australian politics – ousting a leader in the way that they did was disgraceful. Julia Gillard, the snake, should never have accepted the leadership given to her in such a manner. She will be forever known as the woman who backstabbed her boss in order to wrest his position from him, with her backstabbing cohorts backing her. She will just be a by-line when history remembers Rudd kindly in this whole fiasco.

    The Drum on the ABC has a good commentary about Rudd and his loss of popularity with some:
    The long, sad, long, long goodbye by Anabel Crabb

    While some television stations are reporting a slightly higher approval rating for Julia and suggesting it is a “huge” upturn, they have only canvassed a small group of people and it means nothing, because other polls on NineMSN, Yahoo! suggest that most people will not vote for Julia Gillard. Her puppet leadership will ensure Labor loses at the next election to the Liberals and therefore the mining tax will never come into effect because the Liberals give big companies various concessions and not higher taxes.

    It’s just a lose-lose situation for the Aussie people.

    I am totally disgusted how this coup was carried out. Brutal, backstabbing, ruthless and treacherous. Very similar to the way Gauis Julius Caesar was toppled in the Senate around 40BC, except in Rudd’s case, he wasnt actually killed like Caesar was, rather his political career as PM now or in the future was effectively killed off.

    Bastards!

  180. Aleisha

    Great article, thanks for providing it. Totally agree with everything you have said.

    This is a shameful day for Australian politics – ousting a leader in the way that they did was disgraceful. Julia Gillard, the snake, should never have accepted the leadership given to her in such a manner. She will be forever known as the woman who backstabbed her boss in order to wrest his position from him, with her backstabbing cohorts backing her. She will just be a by-line when history remembers Rudd kindly in this whole fiasco.

    The Drum on the ABC has a good commentary about Rudd and his loss of popularity with some:
    The long, sad, long, long goodbye by Anabel Crabb

    While some television stations are reporting a slightly higher approval rating for Julia and suggesting it is a “huge” upturn, they have only canvassed a small group of people and it means nothing, because other polls on NineMSN, Yahoo! suggest that most people will not vote for Julia Gillard. Her puppet leadership will ensure Labor loses at the next election to the Liberals and therefore the mining tax will never come into effect because the Liberals give big companies various concessions and not higher taxes.

    It’s just a lose-lose situation for the Aussie people.

    I am totally disgusted how this coup was carried out. Brutal, backstabbing, ruthless and treacherous. Very similar to the way Gauis Julius Caesar was toppled in the Senate around 40BC, except in Rudd’s case, he wasnt actually killed like Caesar was, rather his political career as PM now or in the future was effectively killed off.

    Bastards!

  181. Mark
  182. Mark
  183. skibum

    Sorry that was supposed to be “…just getting to this now.” I didn’t mean to imply a media conspiracy, just Labor taking strategic advantage of media opportunities. Glossy women’s titles in particular.

  184. skibum

    Sorry that was supposed to be “…just getting to this now.” I didn’t mean to imply a media conspiracy, just Labor taking strategic advantage of media opportunities. Glossy women’s titles in particular.

  185. su

    But why then were two backbenchers on TV this morning suggesting it was based on nervous nellies in the Caucus?

    That same perspective was presented in the initial “breaking news” bulletin during the 7.30 Report on Wednesday evening, the reporter saying “the key thing that is emerging is the real sense of nervousness throughout the caucus, but especially amongst those in marginal seats,” and Swan said the same thing this evening. Make of that what you will.

  186. su

    But why then were two backbenchers on TV this morning suggesting it was based on nervous nellies in the Caucus?

    That same perspective was presented in the initial “breaking news” bulletin during the 7.30 Report on Wednesday evening, the reporter saying “the key thing that is emerging is the real sense of nervousness throughout the caucus, but especially amongst those in marginal seats,” and Swan said the same thing this evening. Make of that what you will.

  187. Spana

    Tigtog. No agenda here. Just someone who rid themselves of irrational party loyalty a long time ago. I preferred Rudd to Abbott but Gillard is an opportunist. She supports scab labour, attacks unions and yet pretend to be their friend. Abbott on the other hands is clearly not sucking up to unions. I believe Gillard is a far bigger threat to unions in this country than Abbott. She is a Thatcherite. I would not vote for her simply because she sticks ALP after her name. As a teacher a unionist I have seen the ruthlessness of Gillard and have faced threats of fines for taking on her right wing education agenda. No agenda here Tigtog. I will be voting DLP and preferencing to the Libs to teach opportunists like Gillard a lesson.

  188. Spana

    Tigtog. No agenda here. Just someone who rid themselves of irrational party loyalty a long time ago. I preferred Rudd to Abbott but Gillard is an opportunist. She supports scab labour, attacks unions and yet pretend to be their friend. Abbott on the other hands is clearly not sucking up to unions. I believe Gillard is a far bigger threat to unions in this country than Abbott. She is a Thatcherite. I would not vote for her simply because she sticks ALP after her name. As a teacher a unionist I have seen the ruthlessness of Gillard and have faced threats of fines for taking on her right wing education agenda. No agenda here Tigtog. I will be voting DLP and preferencing to the Libs to teach opportunists like Gillard a lesson.

  189. Mark

    @93 – no doubt those “nervous nellies”, su, were reading the same reports about polls as everyone else. That’s what Bob McMullan was trying to address in caucus on Tuesday when he made some points about the relative position of the government and the opposition and the likelihood that Labor would win. Obviously a lot of MPs lost their nerve, though again, it’s worth pointing to the marginal seat MPs like Jim Turnour who strongly supported Rudd on the RSPT. The question is why they lost their nerve.

  190. Mark

    @93 – no doubt those “nervous nellies”, su, were reading the same reports about polls as everyone else. That’s what Bob McMullan was trying to address in caucus on Tuesday when he made some points about the relative position of the government and the opposition and the likelihood that Labor would win. Obviously a lot of MPs lost their nerve, though again, it’s worth pointing to the marginal seat MPs like Jim Turnour who strongly supported Rudd on the RSPT. The question is why they lost their nerve.

  191. Tyro Rex

    44. Julius Caesar was assassinated in the Theatre of Pompey on the ‘ides’ (i.e. the 15th) of March 44 B.C.

  192. Tyro Rex

    44. Julius Caesar was assassinated in the Theatre of Pompey on the ‘ides’ (i.e. the 15th) of March 44 B.C.

  193. Ute Man

    Nickws wrote:

    (Yes, I think the likes of Barrie Cassidy and Michelle Grattan are capable of such stupidity.)

    That’s an understatement. From what I can stand of reading or watching Cassidy and Grattan, in appears that they are not only capable of an erudite stupidity, they specialise in it.

  194. Ute Man

    Nickws wrote:

    (Yes, I think the likes of Barrie Cassidy and Michelle Grattan are capable of such stupidity.)

    That’s an understatement. From what I can stand of reading or watching Cassidy and Grattan, in appears that they are not only capable of an erudite stupidity, they specialise in it.

  195. Saint Furious

    “the above para from Trevor Cook sums up why it’s hard for me to maintain any faith in the Labor party now, not to mention the way Anna Bligh has trashed Labor beliefs and ideology in Queensland. It’s getting very difficult to keep the faith and summon up the mindset to rally around the standard if the only argument is one about the lesser of two evils.”

    I’ve got no argument with what Trevor Cook says in principle. My problem is that I think Rudd’s ascension demonstrated what Cook is railing against, just as much as Gillard’s does. The ALP lost the plot before this, and this blog has documented that process on many occasions long before the happenings of this week. I find a lot of what is being said here just a lot of revisionist tripe, but regardless, you all will have to hold your nose and preference Labor, along with the rest of us, who have been described as treacherous by so many who are *shock horror* now saying that it’s impossible to vote Labor..it’s just bizarre, Rudd was installed by the same people that Gillard was installed by…and he had a much shallower approach to policy than she, and greater social conservatism, and somehow it’s only now become a impossible for leftists to vote Labor? Personally, I’ll find a Gillard Labor government slightly easier to preference than a Rudd Labor government was, that’s definitely not an endorsement of the hacks behind the scenes, particularly Farrell who I can’t stand, but oh…hang on there Tony on the TV now, I wonder if suddenly he’s became less revolting……*pauses*…….nope.

  196. Saint Furious

    “the above para from Trevor Cook sums up why it’s hard for me to maintain any faith in the Labor party now, not to mention the way Anna Bligh has trashed Labor beliefs and ideology in Queensland. It’s getting very difficult to keep the faith and summon up the mindset to rally around the standard if the only argument is one about the lesser of two evils.”

    I’ve got no argument with what Trevor Cook says in principle. My problem is that I think Rudd’s ascension demonstrated what Cook is railing against, just as much as Gillard’s does. The ALP lost the plot before this, and this blog has documented that process on many occasions long before the happenings of this week. I find a lot of what is being said here just a lot of revisionist tripe, but regardless, you all will have to hold your nose and preference Labor, along with the rest of us, who have been described as treacherous by so many who are *shock horror* now saying that it’s impossible to vote Labor..it’s just bizarre, Rudd was installed by the same people that Gillard was installed by…and he had a much shallower approach to policy than she, and greater social conservatism, and somehow it’s only now become a impossible for leftists to vote Labor? Personally, I’ll find a Gillard Labor government slightly easier to preference than a Rudd Labor government was, that’s definitely not an endorsement of the hacks behind the scenes, particularly Farrell who I can’t stand, but oh…hang on there Tony on the TV now, I wonder if suddenly he’s became less revolting……*pauses*…….nope.

  197. Don Wigan

    “I believe Gillard is a far bigger threat to unions in this country than Abbott. She is a Thatcherite. ”

    Whatever your disillusionment might be, Spana, I cannot reconcile that opinion with her having Nye Bevan as her political hero. She has chosen a more cautious pathway than Nye but he’s still her benchmark.

  198. Don Wigan

    “I believe Gillard is a far bigger threat to unions in this country than Abbott. She is a Thatcherite. ”

    Whatever your disillusionment might be, Spana, I cannot reconcile that opinion with her having Nye Bevan as her political hero. She has chosen a more cautious pathway than Nye but he’s still her benchmark.

  199. Ute Man

    Saint furious wrote:

    My problem is that I think Rudd’s ascension demonstrated what Cook is railing against, just as much as Gillard’s does.

    Not even close.

    We expect (and perhaps even demand) that opposition leaders are scraped off the boot whenever their polling numbers turn bad.

    Not Prime Ministers. Not in their first term and not when their numbers were improving.

  200. Ute Man

    Saint furious wrote:

    My problem is that I think Rudd’s ascension demonstrated what Cook is railing against, just as much as Gillard’s does.

    Not even close.

    We expect (and perhaps even demand) that opposition leaders are scraped off the boot whenever their polling numbers turn bad.

    Not Prime Ministers. Not in their first term and not when their numbers were improving.

  201. patrickg

    Yeah PC, I would contextualise Cassidy’s pieces with the knowledge that he would have got all his information straight from Bitar.

  202. patrickg

    Yeah PC, I would contextualise Cassidy’s pieces with the knowledge that he would have got all his information straight from Bitar.

  203. Spana

    Don Wigan, Julia can idolise whoever she wants. It is one thing to say you look up to lefties but it is another for it to actually mean anything. Julia will do whatever and discard whatever it takes. She supports scab labour. She advocates its use to bust industrial action by unions. This is an undisputed fact. She is a right winger and a capitalist and as the last few days have shown she is a deal maker with shady factional figures.

    Supporting union busting scab labour should automtically disqualify her from any endorsement or vote by any unionist. Next time it may be your union and your members that are being threatened with thousands of dollars in fines if you dare disagree with Ms Gillard. Gillard will crush unions in a flash if needed. The diffeence is that Gillard will co-opt their leadership first. I would prefer Abbott because unions are strong and self respecting when fighting the Liberals. Under the ALP they become weak.

  204. Spana

    Don Wigan, Julia can idolise whoever she wants. It is one thing to say you look up to lefties but it is another for it to actually mean anything. Julia will do whatever and discard whatever it takes. She supports scab labour. She advocates its use to bust industrial action by unions. This is an undisputed fact. She is a right winger and a capitalist and as the last few days have shown she is a deal maker with shady factional figures.

    Supporting union busting scab labour should automtically disqualify her from any endorsement or vote by any unionist. Next time it may be your union and your members that are being threatened with thousands of dollars in fines if you dare disagree with Ms Gillard. Gillard will crush unions in a flash if needed. The diffeence is that Gillard will co-opt their leadership first. I would prefer Abbott because unions are strong and self respecting when fighting the Liberals. Under the ALP they become weak.

  205. anonymous

    Teachersdon’t like her. She threatened to get scab labour in fo rhte NAPLAN tests, and they’re blaming high school teachers for students who can’t read.

  206. anonymous

    Teachersdon’t like her. She threatened to get scab labour in fo rhte NAPLAN tests, and they’re blaming high school teachers for students who can’t read.

  207. Saint Furious

    I wish hey’d scraped Mike Rann off the boot in his first term, I might have had some degree of fondness in my memory of the man, if that’d been the case. Ditto, with interest, for Kevin Foley.

    I suspect they’ve done Rudd a favour, the eulogising about this ‘visionary leader’ tends to confirm that.

    I appreciate what you mean Uteman, but I was referring to this aspect of Cook’s nostalgia for the ALP of days past:

    “the ALP was the party of ideas and soul. It lost more than it won – but its failings were endearing. The ALP had soul. It loved its leaders. It was motivated by ideas, as well as the pursuit of power. It was ever-likely to tear itself apart about some principle or policy.”

    Kevin Rudd…ideas and soul? Loved by the ALP, motivated by ideas?

  208. Saint Furious

    I wish hey’d scraped Mike Rann off the boot in his first term, I might have had some degree of fondness in my memory of the man, if that’d been the case. Ditto, with interest, for Kevin Foley.

    I suspect they’ve done Rudd a favour, the eulogising about this ‘visionary leader’ tends to confirm that.

    I appreciate what you mean Uteman, but I was referring to this aspect of Cook’s nostalgia for the ALP of days past:

    “the ALP was the party of ideas and soul. It lost more than it won – but its failings were endearing. The ALP had soul. It loved its leaders. It was motivated by ideas, as well as the pursuit of power. It was ever-likely to tear itself apart about some principle or policy.”

    Kevin Rudd…ideas and soul? Loved by the ALP, motivated by ideas?

  209. paul of albury

    Interesting comment from another Annabel Crabb article that what’s happened to Gillard is exactly what Peter Costello dreamed of all those years!
    StF, I’m sure Ron still sees those of us who hold our noses to preference Labor as treacherous and not worthy of voting Labor 😉 But we’ll still do so and cop the abuse. At least until the greens break through this supposed ‘grass ceiling’ of 20%.

  210. paul of albury

    Interesting comment from another Annabel Crabb article that what’s happened to Gillard is exactly what Peter Costello dreamed of all those years!
    StF, I’m sure Ron still sees those of us who hold our noses to preference Labor as treacherous and not worthy of voting Labor 😉 But we’ll still do so and cop the abuse. At least until the greens break through this supposed ‘grass ceiling’ of 20%.

  211. JohnL

    Mark at 89: I agree with you about how we will be hearing more about the BER. I have recently finished an analysis of the media’s favourite BER “whistleblower” Queenslander Craig Mayne (he features in The Australian, The Drum, ABC News, The Syndey Morning Herald, 2GB etc) and it contains some interesting facts as well as references to all the sources. If you are interested in having a look at it as a possible guest post, could you advise how I could get it to you.

  212. JohnL

    Mark at 89: I agree with you about how we will be hearing more about the BER. I have recently finished an analysis of the media’s favourite BER “whistleblower” Queenslander Craig Mayne (he features in The Australian, The Drum, ABC News, The Syndey Morning Herald, 2GB etc) and it contains some interesting facts as well as references to all the sources. If you are interested in having a look at it as a possible guest post, could you advise how I could get it to you.

  213. Spana

    Paul of Albury. It is those who still vote for the ALP despite their disgusting sells outs, factional deals, lack of ethics and opportunism that make them what it is. If people who were disgusted with what Gillard has done or disgusted with all the other sell outs the ALP has done turned on them and put them last then in one or two elections they would get the message that they have to stand for something.

    Instead of making the ALP accountable for their shallow opportunism and lack of principle (out of fear of a Liberal government), these people excuse tha ALp and give them the okay to behave like this election after election. We need to be prepared for some short term pain to punish the ALP. If that means a term or two of the Liberals to shock the ALP into actually standing for something so be it.

    Voting for opportunists gives themn success and convinces them opportunism is good.

    Stop being so timid and powerless. Put the ALP last and hold them accountable.

  214. Spana

    Paul of Albury. It is those who still vote for the ALP despite their disgusting sells outs, factional deals, lack of ethics and opportunism that make them what it is. If people who were disgusted with what Gillard has done or disgusted with all the other sell outs the ALP has done turned on them and put them last then in one or two elections they would get the message that they have to stand for something.

    Instead of making the ALP accountable for their shallow opportunism and lack of principle (out of fear of a Liberal government), these people excuse tha ALp and give them the okay to behave like this election after election. We need to be prepared for some short term pain to punish the ALP. If that means a term or two of the Liberals to shock the ALP into actually standing for something so be it.

    Voting for opportunists gives themn success and convinces them opportunism is good.

    Stop being so timid and powerless. Put the ALP last and hold them accountable.

  215. Saint Furious

    Spana, you are an anti-abortionist. I don’t believe a word you say about being a unionist, you’ve been spruiking for the Liberals ever since Abbott became leader. I can’t stand the dishonesty of what you’ve been trying around here. I couldn’t give a shit where people put Labor on their ballots, but be honest about it, you’ll be preferencing the anti-abortionist, not sending a message to the ALP over unions.

  216. Saint Furious

    Spana, you are an anti-abortionist. I don’t believe a word you say about being a unionist, you’ve been spruiking for the Liberals ever since Abbott became leader. I can’t stand the dishonesty of what you’ve been trying around here. I couldn’t give a shit where people put Labor on their ballots, but be honest about it, you’ll be preferencing the anti-abortionist, not sending a message to the ALP over unions.

  217. Aleisha

    So much for a democracy and a fairly elected Prime Minister as leader of his/her party. Just disgusting!

  218. Aleisha

    So much for a democracy and a fairly elected Prime Minister as leader of his/her party. Just disgusting!

  219. Mark

    @106 – JohnL, you can email me at mbahnisch [at] gmail [dot] com

  220. Mark

    @106 – JohnL, you can email me at mbahnisch [at] gmail [dot] com

  221. Spana

    Of Saint Furious. Good to see those old boxed in stereotypes are alive and well on the left. I am in the Queensland Teachers Union. I have served as a union rep for a number of years. I have represented colleagues on a number of industrial issues. I went on strike last year against Bligh and was part of the Myschool work bans. I have also marched against Workchoices, the Iraq war and guess what I oppose abortion too. And guess what. So does Rudd and many other ALP MPS.

    I do not support Abbott. I will preference to him because I believe he will do less harm than Gillard. Gillard is an anti union scab labour advocate. Look at her histry on this issue. Anyway, federally being pro ar anti abortion is of less importance policywise than at a state level. I do not wish to enter into this debate on this thread other than to say your comments are irrelevent.

    The ALp and Libs are one party, two factions.

  222. Spana

    Of Saint Furious. Good to see those old boxed in stereotypes are alive and well on the left. I am in the Queensland Teachers Union. I have served as a union rep for a number of years. I have represented colleagues on a number of industrial issues. I went on strike last year against Bligh and was part of the Myschool work bans. I have also marched against Workchoices, the Iraq war and guess what I oppose abortion too. And guess what. So does Rudd and many other ALP MPS.

    I do not support Abbott. I will preference to him because I believe he will do less harm than Gillard. Gillard is an anti union scab labour advocate. Look at her histry on this issue. Anyway, federally being pro ar anti abortion is of less importance policywise than at a state level. I do not wish to enter into this debate on this thread other than to say your comments are irrelevent.

    The ALp and Libs are one party, two factions.

  223. adrian

    I don’t always agree with Spana, but this time he is right. As someone who has voted Labor all my life I realise that sometimes you have to say enough is enough. This sort of disgusting behaviour just cannot be condoned,which it will be by voting for them.

    Much as I despise Tony Abbott, I honestly hope that he gets elected, because that is the only way that this shell of a party may be revived.

  224. adrian

    I don’t always agree with Spana, but this time he is right. As someone who has voted Labor all my life I realise that sometimes you have to say enough is enough. This sort of disgusting behaviour just cannot be condoned,which it will be by voting for them.

    Much as I despise Tony Abbott, I honestly hope that he gets elected, because that is the only way that this shell of a party may be revived.

  225. Tyro Rex

    Spana, how the hell does voting for the most reactionary elements of Australian politics – the DLP, a bunch of CEC-style crypto-fascists, backed up with preferencing the mortal enemy of the labour movement (the Tories) – send any sort of signal to the ALP that it should move to protect the rights of the working class??? But having seen your relentless concern troll here on LP over the past week or so I doubt you are anything but a sort of sock puppet of one of the sects of La Rouchian fascists.

  226. Tyro Rex

    Spana, how the hell does voting for the most reactionary elements of Australian politics – the DLP, a bunch of CEC-style crypto-fascists, backed up with preferencing the mortal enemy of the labour movement (the Tories) – send any sort of signal to the ALP that it should move to protect the rights of the working class??? But having seen your relentless concern troll here on LP over the past week or so I doubt you are anything but a sort of sock puppet of one of the sects of La Rouchian fascists.

  227. Tyro Rex

    “Your comment is awaiting moderation.” … sigh … must have been the mention of the La Rouchies in reference to Spana?

  228. Tyro Rex

    “Your comment is awaiting moderation.” … sigh … must have been the mention of the La Rouchies in reference to Spana?

  229. Saint Furious

    Spana, actually I think a unionist can be an anti-abortionist, it’s just that I don’t think you’re a unionist based on your comments about Gillard long before the NAPLAN strife, and you’ve been on an anti-Labor rampage ever since Abbott came into the Liberal leadership. Therefore, I think the social conservatism, especially the anti-abortionist stuff trumps all for you..because if Rudd isn’t socially conservative enough for you, then it must really be those issues that Abbott is strong on, because the idea that unions are stronger under the Libs is just plain silly.

  230. Saint Furious

    Spana, actually I think a unionist can be an anti-abortionist, it’s just that I don’t think you’re a unionist based on your comments about Gillard long before the NAPLAN strife, and you’ve been on an anti-Labor rampage ever since Abbott came into the Liberal leadership. Therefore, I think the social conservatism, especially the anti-abortionist stuff trumps all for you..because if Rudd isn’t socially conservative enough for you, then it must really be those issues that Abbott is strong on, because the idea that unions are stronger under the Libs is just plain silly.

  231. Mark

    Please stay on topic. The discussion is not meant to be one between Spana and others about their politics.

  232. Mark

    Please stay on topic. The discussion is not meant to be one between Spana and others about their politics.

  233. Spana

    Believe what you want St Furious. I actually used to be a member of the ALP in the 1990s before resigning in disgust over this same sort of factional rot. It has destroyed the ALP and made it nothing.

    However, to address your point,I thought it would be really fun to pretend to be a unionist. Really. This is what I do in my spare time. I am actually a Liberal party member who has a strangely accurate knowledge of the QTU. I am a Liberal who went on strike last year and was docked pay by Bligh. I am a Liberal who ran a stop work meeting two years ago and was docked an hours pay. I am a Liberal who marches on Labour day just for fun. Wake up mate. Instead of trying to deny I actually am an active unionist in the QTU who has taken on Gillard and Bligh, been threatened with fines and been docked pay, why not make a counter argument. I am what I say. A unionist who is fed up with the ALP sell outs, year after year.

  234. Spana

    Believe what you want St Furious. I actually used to be a member of the ALP in the 1990s before resigning in disgust over this same sort of factional rot. It has destroyed the ALP and made it nothing.

    However, to address your point,I thought it would be really fun to pretend to be a unionist. Really. This is what I do in my spare time. I am actually a Liberal party member who has a strangely accurate knowledge of the QTU. I am a Liberal who went on strike last year and was docked pay by Bligh. I am a Liberal who ran a stop work meeting two years ago and was docked an hours pay. I am a Liberal who marches on Labour day just for fun. Wake up mate. Instead of trying to deny I actually am an active unionist in the QTU who has taken on Gillard and Bligh, been threatened with fines and been docked pay, why not make a counter argument. I am what I say. A unionist who is fed up with the ALP sell outs, year after year.

  235. Ute Man

    Mark wrote:

    But it would be wrong to think that this stuff doesn’t leave wounds among Labor supporters. The cheersquad who want to push the message of “it’s all good, this is the new reality, get behind it” really need to understand that.

    I’ve been reading Andrew Elders blog for a couple of years thinking to myself – if you were small-l liberal there was plenty of room in the Labor camp.

    I can suddenly see why he thought they were no alternative. We in NSW, holding our noses and voting (or preferencing) these cynical, corrupt mongrels caused this to happen. Any party that makes Barry O’Farrell look like a reasonable alternative ought to just disband in shame.

    Now, I suppose the uber-cynical could remark that a Federal Labor party returning to immigrant bashing (as Gillard now threatens to do) and shadow puppetry, is actually respecting an older, broader tradition of the labour movement in Australia – which means that by prodding us dreamers awake, Arbib has ironically done us a great service by performing the last rites.

  236. Ute Man

    Mark wrote:

    But it would be wrong to think that this stuff doesn’t leave wounds among Labor supporters. The cheersquad who want to push the message of “it’s all good, this is the new reality, get behind it” really need to understand that.

    I’ve been reading Andrew Elders blog for a couple of years thinking to myself – if you were small-l liberal there was plenty of room in the Labor camp.

    I can suddenly see why he thought they were no alternative. We in NSW, holding our noses and voting (or preferencing) these cynical, corrupt mongrels caused this to happen. Any party that makes Barry O’Farrell look like a reasonable alternative ought to just disband in shame.

    Now, I suppose the uber-cynical could remark that a Federal Labor party returning to immigrant bashing (as Gillard now threatens to do) and shadow puppetry, is actually respecting an older, broader tradition of the labour movement in Australia – which means that by prodding us dreamers awake, Arbib has ironically done us a great service by performing the last rites.

  237. Mark

    @117 – that goes for you too, Spana. You’ve had your say in response. Now, let’s drop this and get back on topic. Thanks.

  238. Mark

    @117 – that goes for you too, Spana. You’ve had your say in response. Now, let’s drop this and get back on topic. Thanks.

  239. Mark

    @118 – Ute Man, I guess the other reason why there’s no real place for small l Liberals to go is that they’re still liberals – seeing life through the lens of individual liberties rather than collective bonds. It’s a long way from a theoretical equality of opportunity to a radically redistributive stance. The problem with Labor is that it’s been influenced too much by the prevailing liberal culture, and has forgotten that the original purpose of the movement wasn’t some anodyne notion of fairness within a market economy, but a much broader vision.

  240. Mark

    @118 – Ute Man, I guess the other reason why there’s no real place for small l Liberals to go is that they’re still liberals – seeing life through the lens of individual liberties rather than collective bonds. It’s a long way from a theoretical equality of opportunity to a radically redistributive stance. The problem with Labor is that it’s been influenced too much by the prevailing liberal culture, and has forgotten that the original purpose of the movement wasn’t some anodyne notion of fairness within a market economy, but a much broader vision.

  241. Ute Man

    That’s even more depressing Mark – without the facades of representative democracy and the broad principles of liberalism I see little to respect in modern society.

    Bakunin – here I come.

  242. Ute Man

    That’s even more depressing Mark – without the facades of representative democracy and the broad principles of liberalism I see little to respect in modern society.

    Bakunin – here I come.

  243. Eric Sykes

    Paul @ 50. Spot on.

  244. Eric Sykes

    Paul @ 50. Spot on.

  245. Don Wigan

    “Don Wigan, Julia can idolise whoever she wants. It is one thing to say you look up to lefties but it is another for it to actually mean anything. Julia will do whatever and discard whatever it takes.” -102 Spana

    Well, that would surely make her the first Thatcherite in the world to admit to Nye Bevan as a hero. And, whether you like Gillard’s education and teacher union policies or not, I didn’t notice Maggie Thatcher ever doing anything to improve spending on public education. See Mercurius’s post here.

    As for ‘whatever it takes’, she stuck by Jenny Macklin and Mark Latham long after they’d been proven losers. If she is such an opportunist, she’s got lousy political antenna.

    A teacher, eh? Maybe it wouldn’t hurt to adopt Dr Johnson’s attitude to theatre for a little while, i.e. suspend disbelief. You know what you’re going to get with Abbott and it’s not pretty. Gillard always plays her cards close to her chest. We don’t know which way she’ll move on many things, and she’s sensitive to carrying the public with her. Doesn’t mean she can’t achieve anything worthwhile. Many said the same about Hawke and Keating.

  246. Don Wigan

    “Don Wigan, Julia can idolise whoever she wants. It is one thing to say you look up to lefties but it is another for it to actually mean anything. Julia will do whatever and discard whatever it takes.” -102 Spana

    Well, that would surely make her the first Thatcherite in the world to admit to Nye Bevan as a hero. And, whether you like Gillard’s education and teacher union policies or not, I didn’t notice Maggie Thatcher ever doing anything to improve spending on public education. See Mercurius’s post here.

    As for ‘whatever it takes’, she stuck by Jenny Macklin and Mark Latham long after they’d been proven losers. If she is such an opportunist, she’s got lousy political antenna.

    A teacher, eh? Maybe it wouldn’t hurt to adopt Dr Johnson’s attitude to theatre for a little while, i.e. suspend disbelief. You know what you’re going to get with Abbott and it’s not pretty. Gillard always plays her cards close to her chest. We don’t know which way she’ll move on many things, and she’s sensitive to carrying the public with her. Doesn’t mean she can’t achieve anything worthwhile. Many said the same about Hawke and Keating.

  247. Trenton

    The first poll has been released since the leadership change.
    http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/julia-gillard-puts-labor-back-into-election-winning-position-first-poll-finds/story-e6frf7jo-1225884488474

    Gee considering this will probably be the high water mark it is hardly a stunning result.

  248. Trenton

    The first poll has been released since the leadership change.
    http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/julia-gillard-puts-labor-back-into-election-winning-position-first-poll-finds/story-e6frf7jo-1225884488474

    Gee considering this will probably be the high water mark it is hardly a stunning result.

  249. paul of albury

    Mark, I don’t know if this is on topic or ‘talking about our politics’. Do you just want people to vent or to react?
    But the dillemma of how to respond to NSW right machine politics as we’ve just seen played out is very germane to spana’s response to me at 107. In NSW we’ve faced this the last few elections and the govt just keeps getting worse. But machine politics Liberal style make NSW Labor look sweetness and light. There seem to be a lot of people thinking in NSW if we vote in the Libs just this once Labor will have to clean up its act. But there’s no guarantee they will, control of a losing party is better than no control at all. And besides apart from O’farrell the NSW state Libs are less enlightened than Abbott and they’ll probably dump him once they get into power.
    So how much is enough? Do you vote informal, effectively a passive half vote for Liberal, keep encouraging the Labor bastards, or play russian roulette with the Liberals.

  250. paul of albury

    Mark, I don’t know if this is on topic or ‘talking about our politics’. Do you just want people to vent or to react?
    But the dillemma of how to respond to NSW right machine politics as we’ve just seen played out is very germane to spana’s response to me at 107. In NSW we’ve faced this the last few elections and the govt just keeps getting worse. But machine politics Liberal style make NSW Labor look sweetness and light. There seem to be a lot of people thinking in NSW if we vote in the Libs just this once Labor will have to clean up its act. But there’s no guarantee they will, control of a losing party is better than no control at all. And besides apart from O’farrell the NSW state Libs are less enlightened than Abbott and they’ll probably dump him once they get into power.
    So how much is enough? Do you vote informal, effectively a passive half vote for Liberal, keep encouraging the Labor bastards, or play russian roulette with the Liberals.

  251. Aleisha

    Rudd’s Final Morgan Poll was a ‘Good One’ – ALP (53%, up 1.5%) cf. L-NP (47%, down 1.5%)

    In other words, Labor was set to win the next election by almost the same amount as the last election (with the Greens votes supporting them) and had not “lost their way” as Julia Judas Gillard keeps intent on repeating.

    This is just a crock of bullsh*t about the reason why they dumped Rudd – goes to show it was all about the mining tax and how much pressure the mining tax was putting on certain Labor MP’s to get rid of Rudd and put in someone who would do as they say.

    Rudd’s Final Morgan Poll was a ‘Good One’

    When Paul Bongiorno asked Julia Judas Gillard about the Morgan poll on Ten news just now, she gave a very Howard-esque answer, deflecting to her standard lines about Labor “losing their way” and blah blah!

    Every time I think about this coup and how Rudd was rolled so shockingly, I shake my head in disbelief!

    What a democracy we have here in Australia! Totally run by big corporations and not actually by the government, for the people. And I though the Liberal party was bad, but this behaviour by the Labor party is disgracefully apalling!

  252. Aleisha

    Rudd’s Final Morgan Poll was a ‘Good One’ – ALP (53%, up 1.5%) cf. L-NP (47%, down 1.5%)

    In other words, Labor was set to win the next election by almost the same amount as the last election (with the Greens votes supporting them) and had not “lost their way” as Julia Judas Gillard keeps intent on repeating.

    This is just a crock of bullsh*t about the reason why they dumped Rudd – goes to show it was all about the mining tax and how much pressure the mining tax was putting on certain Labor MP’s to get rid of Rudd and put in someone who would do as they say.

    Rudd’s Final Morgan Poll was a ‘Good One’

    When Paul Bongiorno asked Julia Judas Gillard about the Morgan poll on Ten news just now, she gave a very Howard-esque answer, deflecting to her standard lines about Labor “losing their way” and blah blah!

    Every time I think about this coup and how Rudd was rolled so shockingly, I shake my head in disbelief!

    What a democracy we have here in Australia! Totally run by big corporations and not actually by the government, for the people. And I though the Liberal party was bad, but this behaviour by the Labor party is disgracefully apalling!

  253. Saint Furious

    Paul of Albury, I suspect that Mark was referring to my posts and my general frustration with Spana’s comments boiling over into a very off-topic issue regarding his/her anti-abortion stance. I apologise for taking the thread off topic, but I’m just fed up with so many thread-jackings by Spana’s very particular grouping of ‘issues’. I think s/he is having a lend.

    I empathise with all those that don’t know where to put their preferences, I just find it remarkable how many of them were only very recently deriding others for their earlier realisation that Labor has lost the plot. Gotta say though, that I’m a little weary of people finally reaching this conclusion when its a woman [and a lefty] who takes the leadership…what’s going on with that?

  254. Saint Furious

    Paul of Albury, I suspect that Mark was referring to my posts and my general frustration with Spana’s comments boiling over into a very off-topic issue regarding his/her anti-abortion stance. I apologise for taking the thread off topic, but I’m just fed up with so many thread-jackings by Spana’s very particular grouping of ‘issues’. I think s/he is having a lend.

    I empathise with all those that don’t know where to put their preferences, I just find it remarkable how many of them were only very recently deriding others for their earlier realisation that Labor has lost the plot. Gotta say though, that I’m a little weary of people finally reaching this conclusion when its a woman [and a lefty] who takes the leadership…what’s going on with that?

  255. adrian

    Well said Aleisha!

  256. adrian

    Well said Aleisha!

  257. Corin

    Mark, it is possible to think Julia will do a better job than NSW machine politics. You just feel let down on her education policies and think this is a coup. She should push for more decentralisation not less and more power to principals not less. More merit pay not less. More resources but better used. More choice in schooling for the poor and more variety of schools. She has a long way to go but she is closer to excellence on schools than any other Labor Government (including states) have been. I think the Left is resistant to choice in public service delivery not because it can’t be made to work best and for the poor but for outmoded reasons of ideology and union opposition. That is a limited path to a limited future of longer term irrelevance. People expect tailored services and demand them and competition is good practice among schools.

  258. Corin

    Mark, it is possible to think Julia will do a better job than NSW machine politics. You just feel let down on her education policies and think this is a coup. She should push for more decentralisation not less and more power to principals not less. More merit pay not less. More resources but better used. More choice in schooling for the poor and more variety of schools. She has a long way to go but she is closer to excellence on schools than any other Labor Government (including states) have been. I think the Left is resistant to choice in public service delivery not because it can’t be made to work best and for the poor but for outmoded reasons of ideology and union opposition. That is a limited path to a limited future of longer term irrelevance. People expect tailored services and demand them and competition is good practice among schools.

  259. Bingo Bango Boingo

    All very sensible stuff, Corin.

    Gillard will smash Abbott in the election. And she’ll do it by heading or promising to head – essentially if not publicly or overtly – a neoliberal government. Good times.

    BBB

  260. Bingo Bango Boingo

    All very sensible stuff, Corin.

    Gillard will smash Abbott in the election. And she’ll do it by heading or promising to head – essentially if not publicly or overtly – a neoliberal government. Good times.

    BBB

  261. Ken Lovell

    Thanks for that extraordinary grab-bag of baseless assertions Corin @ 129. Rather than point out how lacking in evidentiary support they are, can I just ask if you seriously think Gillard will continue to be the minister for education?

    Talk about ideology masquerading as fact.

  262. Ken Lovell

    Thanks for that extraordinary grab-bag of baseless assertions Corin @ 129. Rather than point out how lacking in evidentiary support they are, can I just ask if you seriously think Gillard will continue to be the minister for education?

    Talk about ideology masquerading as fact.

  263. Ken Lovell

    Oh BTW – ‘The nationwide poll of 800 people also found more people would rather have a beer with her than Mr Abbott’.

    Gosh, she’s right up there with George W Bush as a leader. How does she look in a RAAF flying suit?

    Nothing like some insightful analysis from the corporate media. ‘Voters easily prefer Ms Gillard on who would make a better PM, with 58 per cent compared with 32 per cent for Mr Abbott.’ Wow, she’s where Rudd was in March (although Abbott is doing better now than then). Obviously the coup was a master-stroke.

  264. Ken Lovell

    Oh BTW – ‘The nationwide poll of 800 people also found more people would rather have a beer with her than Mr Abbott’.

    Gosh, she’s right up there with George W Bush as a leader. How does she look in a RAAF flying suit?

    Nothing like some insightful analysis from the corporate media. ‘Voters easily prefer Ms Gillard on who would make a better PM, with 58 per cent compared with 32 per cent for Mr Abbott.’ Wow, she’s where Rudd was in March (although Abbott is doing better now than then). Obviously the coup was a master-stroke.

  265. Corin

    Ken Lovell, here’s an idea for you why pay the Education Tax Refund to schools instead of only for IT purchases. If you get real concerned, may be you limit it to public schools where poorer kids move to a ‘better school’. Why should the Left think poor kids should go to failing schools and force that to happen. I am way off topic but it is fun.

  266. Corin

    Ken Lovell, here’s an idea for you why pay the Education Tax Refund to schools instead of only for IT purchases. If you get real concerned, may be you limit it to public schools where poorer kids move to a ‘better school’. Why should the Left think poor kids should go to failing schools and force that to happen. I am way off topic but it is fun.

  267. Corin

    That should read ‘why not’ pay the ETR …

  268. Corin

    That should read ‘why not’ pay the ETR …

  269. Ken Lovell

    Corin @ 129: Gillard should push for ‘[m]ore resources but better used’. ZOMG WHY DID NOBODY THINK OF THAT BEFORE???? And the true brilliance is that she can use the same formula to solve ALL OUR OTHER PROBLEMS ALSO TOO!!

    I go to bed happy that at last all will be well.

  270. Ken Lovell

    Corin @ 129: Gillard should push for ‘[m]ore resources but better used’. ZOMG WHY DID NOBODY THINK OF THAT BEFORE???? And the true brilliance is that she can use the same formula to solve ALL OUR OTHER PROBLEMS ALSO TOO!!

    I go to bed happy that at last all will be well.

  271. Aleisha

    Mark @120 – Yes, the Labor party now has shown even more clearly how out of focus they are and how little they take stock of any of the values that they should have held dear.

    And while all parties should adapt to the times with changes relevant to their party principles, they have gone too far and now with this very public, ruthless and humiliating ousting of their leader, they will have alienated a large percentage of their constituents. Not smart at all. Way to go to lose the election

    Adrian @128 – thanks. I am just so sickened by this. I feel ashamed to be an Australian at the moment!

    Corin @129 – Julia Judas Gillard is a puppet. She has already said she will reduce the mining tax, but has not made it clear by how much. She fully supported everything Rudd had been proposing before, but now has a complete reversal of policy, all of a sudden? To me, it just proves how much she is lying. Watch her interviews. Her face is gloating. She cannot enjoy being Prime Minister any more than she does when asked about her role as PM, her plans etc.

    If Julia Judas Gillard were voted in fairly by the people, in due course, I would have no issue with it. Hey, I would have voted for her! But like this? No way. What she and the few others in the Labor party have done is a major disgrace.

    When history remembers Kevin Rudd, they will remember him kindly, with all the good things he has done and Julia Gillard will be a by-line and her cohorts wont rate at all.

  272. Aleisha

    Mark @120 – Yes, the Labor party now has shown even more clearly how out of focus they are and how little they take stock of any of the values that they should have held dear.

    And while all parties should adapt to the times with changes relevant to their party principles, they have gone too far and now with this very public, ruthless and humiliating ousting of their leader, they will have alienated a large percentage of their constituents. Not smart at all. Way to go to lose the election

    Adrian @128 – thanks. I am just so sickened by this. I feel ashamed to be an Australian at the moment!

    Corin @129 – Julia Judas Gillard is a puppet. She has already said she will reduce the mining tax, but has not made it clear by how much. She fully supported everything Rudd had been proposing before, but now has a complete reversal of policy, all of a sudden? To me, it just proves how much she is lying. Watch her interviews. Her face is gloating. She cannot enjoy being Prime Minister any more than she does when asked about her role as PM, her plans etc.

    If Julia Judas Gillard were voted in fairly by the people, in due course, I would have no issue with it. Hey, I would have voted for her! But like this? No way. What she and the few others in the Labor party have done is a major disgrace.

    When history remembers Kevin Rudd, they will remember him kindly, with all the good things he has done and Julia Gillard will be a by-line and her cohorts wont rate at all.

  273. Ron

    john
    Jun 25th, 2010 at 5:50 pm

    “You’re a fucking hack, @Ron. You’re the kind we had a split to get rid of.”

    you prob speak for 99% of posters here with that coment , and prob Moderator as well , but my response is on facts

    Mark and some bloggers hav taken a self rightous emotional reaction based solely on false perseption of some “injustice to Rudd” , which has totaly clouded his judgement on evidense

    whereas other bloggers , admitted Greens voters who’ve vilified Rudd HERE on LP , now blog mock indignation when reely its a camoflage excuse to continue there anti Labor Party blogs

    Yes John , I’m a labor member , and entrenched inside it , and we accept naivety of people not expert in politcs

    Julia’s challenge just like many challenges for Labor leedership (Hawke/Hayden , Beasely , Crean Latham and Latham/Rudd …AND including Keatings against SITTING PM Hawke , involve brutal numbers and a denting standing of encumbant

    ….get over it Mark , nothing diferent this time to Hawke’s standing being dented
    when Keating challenged , but Labor MP’s still voted for Hawke , so your whole theory collapses that curent Labor MP’s had no choise but to lie down and support Gillard once it became public

    Factually , Rudd had no aligned support within Caucus , but crucially as a one man band had no ‘affection’ either , so once internal polls showed dire rout (and additonaly Rudd had previously shown no signs to listen to Caucus nor worse to th public concern over CRPS/ RSPT concern) , this dire internal polls as well meant Rudd was always finished

    and fact Rudd did not even contest Ballot despite th nite before saying publicly he would , PROVES Caucus suport was negligible , yes Caucus support …that is most of 115 Labor MP’s showed no support for Rudd at all ….because THEY believed th above listed factual politcal reasons (and not because a power broker told them to do so but because MP’s had told power brokers there views , pollies do talk amongst themselves)

    What some of you naievely wanted was a spill first without a public challenge , yet Keating did not do that , nor did any other challenger Only diferense this time is rudd (unlike Hawke and others chalenged) did not then contest th Ballot , well that simply saved Rudd total embarassment , nothing more

    Some here live in arm chairs thinking politcs is for gentlemen , it has never been so Holding Govt and with it th enormous power to make Reforms does not allow that

    Julia taking over was a correct politcal decision in Labor’s Partys interst and thus our Nations , except for those wishing Abbot

    (As for Kevin07 he will ALWAYS be appreciated for getting rid of Howard within Labor Party (people here do rember what Howard did I suppose) , and for gutting Workchoises , enacting a CC Bill , BER , Hospital Reform etc etc , but he lost his way , was too dictatorial , didn’t listen to either Caucus and nor to Public’s concerns over CPRS & RSPT etc …resulting in dire polls , and politcs at end of day is about “numbers” so that ‘left’ reform polisy can be implamented Its sad for Kevin but he has a proud above legacy When Julia wins as she will , where will mock outrage be then….there will zero from th Public who will re-elect Julia

  274. Ron

    john
    Jun 25th, 2010 at 5:50 pm

    “You’re a fucking hack, @Ron. You’re the kind we had a split to get rid of.”

    you prob speak for 99% of posters here with that coment , and prob Moderator as well , but my response is on facts

    Mark and some bloggers hav taken a self rightous emotional reaction based solely on false perseption of some “injustice to Rudd” , which has totaly clouded his judgement on evidense

    whereas other bloggers , admitted Greens voters who’ve vilified Rudd HERE on LP , now blog mock indignation when reely its a camoflage excuse to continue there anti Labor Party blogs

    Yes John , I’m a labor member , and entrenched inside it , and we accept naivety of people not expert in politcs

    Julia’s challenge just like many challenges for Labor leedership (Hawke/Hayden , Beasely , Crean Latham and Latham/Rudd …AND including Keatings against SITTING PM Hawke , involve brutal numbers and a denting standing of encumbant

    ….get over it Mark , nothing diferent this time to Hawke’s standing being dented
    when Keating challenged , but Labor MP’s still voted for Hawke , so your whole theory collapses that curent Labor MP’s had no choise but to lie down and support Gillard once it became public

    Factually , Rudd had no aligned support within Caucus , but crucially as a one man band had no ‘affection’ either , so once internal polls showed dire rout (and additonaly Rudd had previously shown no signs to listen to Caucus nor worse to th public concern over CRPS/ RSPT concern) , this dire internal polls as well meant Rudd was always finished

    and fact Rudd did not even contest Ballot despite th nite before saying publicly he would , PROVES Caucus suport was negligible , yes Caucus support …that is most of 115 Labor MP’s showed no support for Rudd at all ….because THEY believed th above listed factual politcal reasons (and not because a power broker told them to do so but because MP’s had told power brokers there views , pollies do talk amongst themselves)

    What some of you naievely wanted was a spill first without a public challenge , yet Keating did not do that , nor did any other challenger Only diferense this time is rudd (unlike Hawke and others chalenged) did not then contest th Ballot , well that simply saved Rudd total embarassment , nothing more

    Some here live in arm chairs thinking politcs is for gentlemen , it has never been so Holding Govt and with it th enormous power to make Reforms does not allow that

    Julia taking over was a correct politcal decision in Labor’s Partys interst and thus our Nations , except for those wishing Abbot

    (As for Kevin07 he will ALWAYS be appreciated for getting rid of Howard within Labor Party (people here do rember what Howard did I suppose) , and for gutting Workchoises , enacting a CC Bill , BER , Hospital Reform etc etc , but he lost his way , was too dictatorial , didn’t listen to either Caucus and nor to Public’s concerns over CPRS & RSPT etc …resulting in dire polls , and politcs at end of day is about “numbers” so that ‘left’ reform polisy can be implamented Its sad for Kevin but he has a proud above legacy When Julia wins as she will , where will mock outrage be then….there will zero from th Public who will re-elect Julia

  275. Corin

    Aleisha, go preference Abbott then. Looks from the polls that Green support is being decimated, so are the outer-suburban ‘heartland’ seems to like Rudd going. BTW – blind freddie knows the RSPT is a dog of an election policy (even if it can be good policy). The ETS decision was ane even bigger dog with flees. Rudd couldn’t backflip a backflip so he had to go.

  276. Corin

    Aleisha, go preference Abbott then. Looks from the polls that Green support is being decimated, so are the outer-suburban ‘heartland’ seems to like Rudd going. BTW – blind freddie knows the RSPT is a dog of an election policy (even if it can be good policy). The ETS decision was ane even bigger dog with flees. Rudd couldn’t backflip a backflip so he had to go.

  277. Jack Strocchi

    Ron is right.

  278. Jack Strocchi

    Ron is right.

  279. Trenton

    Ron,If its too anti Labor for you here why don’t you choof off to another blog where you might find the reading a bit more palatable. Your not going to be able to control what other people say or think.

    And seeing as you are making the judgement that ” Mark and some bloggers hav taken a self rightous emotional reaction based solely on false perseption of some “injustice to Rudd” , which has totaly clouded his judgement on evidense”
    Let me make a judgement of my own. I am not going to change my view on what happened in the last couple of days just because some Labor hack posts several paragraphs of incomprehensible drivel.

  280. Trenton

    Ron,If its too anti Labor for you here why don’t you choof off to another blog where you might find the reading a bit more palatable. Your not going to be able to control what other people say or think.

    And seeing as you are making the judgement that ” Mark and some bloggers hav taken a self rightous emotional reaction based solely on false perseption of some “injustice to Rudd” , which has totaly clouded his judgement on evidense”
    Let me make a judgement of my own. I am not going to change my view on what happened in the last couple of days just because some Labor hack posts several paragraphs of incomprehensible drivel.

  281. Corin

    Trenton, why do you like Rudd?? It is inconceivable to me that people have great affection for him or his leadership? I worked next to the man at close quarters and found the whole office disfunctional, poll driven, irretrievably short sighted and worse, planning announcements when steady progress on big stuff was necessary. Strangely, when Rudd did do big things, he couldn’t articulate why, see ETS. On the RSPT, it was actually worth doing, about 18 months ago, not in an election year. hawke never would have had an election year dominated by a measure like that. Besides, why dump ETS to embrace something no-one had really called for until Henry. They should have embraced a less complex tax and frankly taxed mining not quite as heavily. It would still have provided more tax than the current approach more efficiently.

  282. Corin

    Trenton, why do you like Rudd?? It is inconceivable to me that people have great affection for him or his leadership? I worked next to the man at close quarters and found the whole office disfunctional, poll driven, irretrievably short sighted and worse, planning announcements when steady progress on big stuff was necessary. Strangely, when Rudd did do big things, he couldn’t articulate why, see ETS. On the RSPT, it was actually worth doing, about 18 months ago, not in an election year. hawke never would have had an election year dominated by a measure like that. Besides, why dump ETS to embrace something no-one had really called for until Henry. They should have embraced a less complex tax and frankly taxed mining not quite as heavily. It would still have provided more tax than the current approach more efficiently.

  283. Trenton

    Who said I ever liked Rudd? You obviously don’t understand the thrust of the debate so we might end the converstation there.

  284. Trenton

    Who said I ever liked Rudd? You obviously don’t understand the thrust of the debate so we might end the converstation there.

  285. Corin

    Trenton, you’re a class A whinger. He got rolled, so what. I’d like to a more democratic Labor party, but Gillard was a good call. BTW, good piece by Michael Costello saying he didn’t think factions got Rudd, this was widespread. I’d have to say that’s seems right to me. BTW, I think a primary at the moment would see Gillard wipe the floor with Rudd. So, why grip and whinge. Get over yourself. Support the winners next time. It’s more fun.

  286. Corin

    Trenton, you’re a class A whinger. He got rolled, so what. I’d like to a more democratic Labor party, but Gillard was a good call. BTW, good piece by Michael Costello saying he didn’t think factions got Rudd, this was widespread. I’d have to say that’s seems right to me. BTW, I think a primary at the moment would see Gillard wipe the floor with Rudd. So, why grip and whinge. Get over yourself. Support the winners next time. It’s more fun.

  287. Trenton

    I’ll concede one point, if you managed to work at close quarters with him the place must have been dysfunctional lol. Try not to work with Julia will you lol.

  288. Trenton

    I’ll concede one point, if you managed to work at close quarters with him the place must have been dysfunctional lol. Try not to work with Julia will you lol.

  289. Aleisha

    @Corin – I’m not voting for Abbot. I will go for an independent to the left side of politics, who will maybe hold the balance of power, much like Harradine did years ago.

    @Ron – this is not about self-righteousness, it’s about basic human decency. If the whole caucus wanted the one-man-show Rudd out, then it should have been done openly, not in the back-handed, furtive, knife-in-the-back, a-la Brutus way was it was achieved. A lot of people are up in arms about that, because while some people did not vote in Rudd, quite a lot did and the last opinion poll showed that Labor was in a strong position to win the next election. The numbers were not down that much.

    Yes, Rudd liked to do things on his own. Yes, he was not a fan of factions and the unions telling him what to do. Yes he did have a terrible temper at times, which he unleashed on some (and maybe that is something he needs to work on, to mediate somewhat to a more manageable level). But Rudd was one of the more decent politicians who was respected and liked by a whole lot of Australian people, even more so since he gave that very emotional speech on Thursday morning when they removed him as PM.

    I for one, liked Rudd and was so happy he got elected. I was disappointed in some of his decisions, but you know what? Sometimes those election promises, depending on a number of circumstances after the fact, may not be able to be implemented in quite the way that they were originally intended. That I accept. At least Rudd was a more decent man than those who deposed him!

    The thing about this debacle that is insufferable, is the lies and misinformation being spread around.

    The facts are:

    1. Rudd was rolled by a select few in his party, including his deputy, not the whole caucus.
    2. The coup was shamelessly achieved behind closed doors without consultation prior to it being a fait accompli
    3. It is not the fact that Rudd was rolled that people are criticising, rather it is the manner in which it was conducted, which showed how little “democracy” we, the Australia people have
    4. Labor, according to the Roy Morgan poll of 20/21 June, were still in front as preferred party and had in fact gone up 1.5% in preferences, not down as was misleadingly reported
    5. Gillard, Swan et al, were all supporting Rudd’s plans that they are now purporting to be against and vowing to change
    6. Abib and others convinced Rudd to scrap ETS and while it is ultimately the PM’s decision, they provided compelling reasons/evidence/advice (as advisers need to) to scrap it and unfortunately he listened to them
    7. Rudd achieved quite a lot of his election promises and was on his way to achieving more of them before this disgraceful action of a few of the betrayers of his own party
    8. Any “backflips” Rudd may have made (ETS for example), have paled into comparison with those of his Liberal adversary John Howard, whose middle name should have been “backflip”, yet his party never rolled him so disgracefully like Rudd’s party did to him
    9. The last election when Howard was leading the Liberals, the polls showed they had little chance to win, yet did his party get rid of him at that point in preference for someone else? No. And their numbers for party preference was much lower than the polls showed for Rudd, who had the numbers

    Gillard will lose the next election for the Labor party. This election, which should have been a shoe-in for them, an easy second term, will be one they will lose. And all because of an idiotic power play by a few who thought they could decide what happened in the Labor party leadership, on a whim and without a democratic election of any kind.

    The mining companies are banking on it, quite literally, because they know the Liberals will never impose an increase in taxes on them. This debacle that the federal Labor party has instigated will indeed make more people vote Liberal – and the mining companies are banking on that, quite literally too. And I guarantee you that the Liberals will get into power because so many completely disillusioned and dispirited Labor voters will vote them in.

  290. Aleisha

    @Corin – I’m not voting for Abbot. I will go for an independent to the left side of politics, who will maybe hold the balance of power, much like Harradine did years ago.

    @Ron – this is not about self-righteousness, it’s about basic human decency. If the whole caucus wanted the one-man-show Rudd out, then it should have been done openly, not in the back-handed, furtive, knife-in-the-back, a-la Brutus way was it was achieved. A lot of people are up in arms about that, because while some people did not vote in Rudd, quite a lot did and the last opinion poll showed that Labor was in a strong position to win the next election. The numbers were not down that much.

    Yes, Rudd liked to do things on his own. Yes, he was not a fan of factions and the unions telling him what to do. Yes he did have a terrible temper at times, which he unleashed on some (and maybe that is something he needs to work on, to mediate somewhat to a more manageable level). But Rudd was one of the more decent politicians who was respected and liked by a whole lot of Australian people, even more so since he gave that very emotional speech on Thursday morning when they removed him as PM.

    I for one, liked Rudd and was so happy he got elected. I was disappointed in some of his decisions, but you know what? Sometimes those election promises, depending on a number of circumstances after the fact, may not be able to be implemented in quite the way that they were originally intended. That I accept. At least Rudd was a more decent man than those who deposed him!

    The thing about this debacle that is insufferable, is the lies and misinformation being spread around.

    The facts are:

    1. Rudd was rolled by a select few in his party, including his deputy, not the whole caucus.
    2. The coup was shamelessly achieved behind closed doors without consultation prior to it being a fait accompli
    3. It is not the fact that Rudd was rolled that people are criticising, rather it is the manner in which it was conducted, which showed how little “democracy” we, the Australia people have
    4. Labor, according to the Roy Morgan poll of 20/21 June, were still in front as preferred party and had in fact gone up 1.5% in preferences, not down as was misleadingly reported
    5. Gillard, Swan et al, were all supporting Rudd’s plans that they are now purporting to be against and vowing to change
    6. Abib and others convinced Rudd to scrap ETS and while it is ultimately the PM’s decision, they provided compelling reasons/evidence/advice (as advisers need to) to scrap it and unfortunately he listened to them
    7. Rudd achieved quite a lot of his election promises and was on his way to achieving more of them before this disgraceful action of a few of the betrayers of his own party
    8. Any “backflips” Rudd may have made (ETS for example), have paled into comparison with those of his Liberal adversary John Howard, whose middle name should have been “backflip”, yet his party never rolled him so disgracefully like Rudd’s party did to him
    9. The last election when Howard was leading the Liberals, the polls showed they had little chance to win, yet did his party get rid of him at that point in preference for someone else? No. And their numbers for party preference was much lower than the polls showed for Rudd, who had the numbers

    Gillard will lose the next election for the Labor party. This election, which should have been a shoe-in for them, an easy second term, will be one they will lose. And all because of an idiotic power play by a few who thought they could decide what happened in the Labor party leadership, on a whim and without a democratic election of any kind.

    The mining companies are banking on it, quite literally, because they know the Liberals will never impose an increase in taxes on them. This debacle that the federal Labor party has instigated will indeed make more people vote Liberal – and the mining companies are banking on that, quite literally too. And I guarantee you that the Liberals will get into power because so many completely disillusioned and dispirited Labor voters will vote them in.

  291. Dave Bath

    In the post, Andrew implies “Arbib…plotted to take down an elected prime minister.”

    Yep. The Dismissal was played with a straight bat by comparison. At least Mal Fraser was from a different party and Kerr was horribly flawed but not necessarily malicious.

    While Arbib and company should be written in ALP history as more infamous than Kerr’s cur, I doubt any of them will do any good to redeem themselves in the was Fraser did after he left office.

    So… what verbal play can we make in weak echo of “Kerr’s cur”… perhaps a henchman should go down in history as Arbib’s ar**

  292. Dave Bath

    In the post, Andrew implies “Arbib…plotted to take down an elected prime minister.”

    Yep. The Dismissal was played with a straight bat by comparison. At least Mal Fraser was from a different party and Kerr was horribly flawed but not necessarily malicious.

    While Arbib and company should be written in ALP history as more infamous than Kerr’s cur, I doubt any of them will do any good to redeem themselves in the was Fraser did after he left office.

    So… what verbal play can we make in weak echo of “Kerr’s cur”… perhaps a henchman should go down in history as Arbib’s ar**

  293. Aleisha

    @Corin – I liked the RSPT. I think it was a fair tax on mining companies whose CEOs, by their own admision are multi-billionaires. These are mining companies which are mostly foreign owned, put back very little of their earning within Australia and with the number of concessions they get, the amount of tax they pay is abyssmally low right now.

    Basically the mining companies were running a scare campaign, from their television advertisements, to their website, letters/pamphlets to their shareholders and whatever else marketing they were doing to make people think them being taxed properly would hurt Australia. The only ones that would hurt, would be the mining companies! Their profits would go down and they resented that.

    Rio Tinto even sent a letter to their shareholders, telling them that they would be taxed at rate approaching 57%! How that is not misleading?

    The link to the letter that Rio Tinto sent to its shareholder – Rio Tinto Resource Super Profits Tax. This is from Rio Tinto themselves, so it’s factual information.

    For those who dont know how large companies are taxed – for your elucidation:
    All really large companies have super-efficient accountants who know how to squeeze every tax concession from the government and use whatever tools they have at their disposal to pay less than the current company tax rates. If you dont believe this, you are very naive and misinformed. That is the reason why they are so rich – they pay a pitifully low tax rate right now and they resent the idea that they need to pay any more. Yet, even with the RSPT in effect, the amount of tax that the mining companies would ultimately pay would be much less than 40% anyway, because they still would get tax concessions and other factors reducing the overall tax rate to something more along the lines of 10-20%. I am just guessing here, but I know that I wouldnt be too far off.

  294. Aleisha

    @Corin – I liked the RSPT. I think it was a fair tax on mining companies whose CEOs, by their own admision are multi-billionaires. These are mining companies which are mostly foreign owned, put back very little of their earning within Australia and with the number of concessions they get, the amount of tax they pay is abyssmally low right now.

    Basically the mining companies were running a scare campaign, from their television advertisements, to their website, letters/pamphlets to their shareholders and whatever else marketing they were doing to make people think them being taxed properly would hurt Australia. The only ones that would hurt, would be the mining companies! Their profits would go down and they resented that.

    Rio Tinto even sent a letter to their shareholders, telling them that they would be taxed at rate approaching 57%! How that is not misleading?

    The link to the letter that Rio Tinto sent to its shareholder – Rio Tinto Resource Super Profits Tax. This is from Rio Tinto themselves, so it’s factual information.

    For those who dont know how large companies are taxed – for your elucidation:
    All really large companies have super-efficient accountants who know how to squeeze every tax concession from the government and use whatever tools they have at their disposal to pay less than the current company tax rates. If you dont believe this, you are very naive and misinformed. That is the reason why they are so rich – they pay a pitifully low tax rate right now and they resent the idea that they need to pay any more. Yet, even with the RSPT in effect, the amount of tax that the mining companies would ultimately pay would be much less than 40% anyway, because they still would get tax concessions and other factors reducing the overall tax rate to something more along the lines of 10-20%. I am just guessing here, but I know that I wouldnt be too far off.

  295. alexinbogota

    the Australian people did not vote for Kevin Rudd, they voted for the labor party and trusted their representatives to select the PM. the narrative in the post seems to ascribe no agency to labor MPs who could have made it clear they were backing rudd. but they weren;t backing rudd for a variety of reasons some of which are borne out in examples of his terrible leadership skills – in terms of face to face people management.

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/alex-rafalowicz/julia-gillard-australias_b_624735.html

  296. alexinbogota

    the Australian people did not vote for Kevin Rudd, they voted for the labor party and trusted their representatives to select the PM. the narrative in the post seems to ascribe no agency to labor MPs who could have made it clear they were backing rudd. but they weren;t backing rudd for a variety of reasons some of which are borne out in examples of his terrible leadership skills – in terms of face to face people management.

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/alex-rafalowicz/julia-gillard-australias_b_624735.html

  297. adrian

    Anybody who thinks that Labor will win the election should have seen Chris Bowen on Lateline last night do a wonderful impression of a man eating a shit sandwich on national television. Bowen, who used to be on of Labor’s best performers, was a total embarrassment, taken apart by the odious Scott Morrison, because Bowen had no answer to the obvious questions about this coup.

    This is just a taste of what’s to come – a total disaster. If the Libs had any sense (a big ask I know), they’d dumb Abbott for Turnbull and it would be a total rout, which sadly is just about what the ALP deserves.

  298. adrian

    Anybody who thinks that Labor will win the election should have seen Chris Bowen on Lateline last night do a wonderful impression of a man eating a shit sandwich on national television. Bowen, who used to be on of Labor’s best performers, was a total embarrassment, taken apart by the odious Scott Morrison, because Bowen had no answer to the obvious questions about this coup.

    This is just a taste of what’s to come – a total disaster. If the Libs had any sense (a big ask I know), they’d dumb Abbott for Turnbull and it would be a total rout, which sadly is just about what the ALP deserves.

  299. big issue

    Coup? My fat foot. Factions? Bull. The disaster was of Rudd’s own making from end to end. His achievements are many, but his whole method was ultimately destructive to self and Party. I’d rather have a sound Left government led by Gillard than have had Rudd micromanage and bore us to oblivion.

    Ultimately, in over 2 years as PM it became inexorably apparent that he was utterly unable to learn from experience, despite all the loyal and earnest urgings of his colleagues who could see all the dangers that his entrenched prolixity, micromanaging, over-control and repeated cycles of rush-delay-rush created. God knows how many chances they gave him, privately, while giving him loyal encouragement.

    His departure speech was of the same cloth. He turned up late. Abominably late. Again. He wrote it all himself – again. It was too long – far far far too long – again. Too detailed – again. And in the end, too long and too much for his composure, excruciatingly inflicted on a national audience.

    The key question is whether Mr Rudd has sufficient character to realise that the whole of his habitual personal style was his main weakness. Next, and as importantly, whether he can apply that wisdom to fundamentally alter his behaviour both within Cabinet and in dealing with work in his own office.

    If carefully aided by sound advice from experienced senior advisors, he *might* make a good Foreign Minister. But has he got the spine, the perception, to *take* advice, and actually learn from it? Has he got the maturity and the resilience to unpick his disastrous work habits to forge a constructive, sustainable method? Big unknowns.

    Give him a chance as a Minister – but if he sets about it the same way he has with everything else he’s tackled so far, he’ll simply have to go.

  300. big issue

    Coup? My fat foot. Factions? Bull. The disaster was of Rudd’s own making from end to end. His achievements are many, but his whole method was ultimately destructive to self and Party. I’d rather have a sound Left government led by Gillard than have had Rudd micromanage and bore us to oblivion.

    Ultimately, in over 2 years as PM it became inexorably apparent that he was utterly unable to learn from experience, despite all the loyal and earnest urgings of his colleagues who could see all the dangers that his entrenched prolixity, micromanaging, over-control and repeated cycles of rush-delay-rush created. God knows how many chances they gave him, privately, while giving him loyal encouragement.

    His departure speech was of the same cloth. He turned up late. Abominably late. Again. He wrote it all himself – again. It was too long – far far far too long – again. Too detailed – again. And in the end, too long and too much for his composure, excruciatingly inflicted on a national audience.

    The key question is whether Mr Rudd has sufficient character to realise that the whole of his habitual personal style was his main weakness. Next, and as importantly, whether he can apply that wisdom to fundamentally alter his behaviour both within Cabinet and in dealing with work in his own office.

    If carefully aided by sound advice from experienced senior advisors, he *might* make a good Foreign Minister. But has he got the spine, the perception, to *take* advice, and actually learn from it? Has he got the maturity and the resilience to unpick his disastrous work habits to forge a constructive, sustainable method? Big unknowns.

    Give him a chance as a Minister – but if he sets about it the same way he has with everything else he’s tackled so far, he’ll simply have to go.

  301. paul of albury

    So we have ‘mock ndignation because we’ve gone from disappointment in the Rudd government to disquiet in Rudd’s removal while Ron has gone from refusing to hear a word against Rudd to ‘lost his way’, dictatorial, won’t listen to public concerns. We’ve always been at war with Eastasia. Definitely faithful, more innocent than naive.

  302. paul of albury

    So we have ‘mock ndignation because we’ve gone from disappointment in the Rudd government to disquiet in Rudd’s removal while Ron has gone from refusing to hear a word against Rudd to ‘lost his way’, dictatorial, won’t listen to public concerns. We’ve always been at war with Eastasia. Definitely faithful, more innocent than naive.

  303. patrickg

    Ron, stop re-writing history; there were no “dire” polls, except that secret, shithouse ones leaked to Andrew Bolt.

  304. patrickg

    Ron, stop re-writing history; there were no “dire” polls, except that secret, shithouse ones leaked to Andrew Bolt.

  305. Spana

    Interestingly one Gillard’s first tasks was to meet the US ambassador, gush over Obama and reassure the USA that it wil be business as usual in that disgusting war in Afghanistan. I guess this pleased the right wing war mongers in the party.

    So we have a so called leftie committing Australia to another US war in which she will never have to fight in herslef. Australians are dying, Afghanis are being killed but she remains yet another middle class stay at home patriot prepared to wage war while she basks in the glory of power. Disgusting.

    And I bet she continues to appease China while they lock up and torture politcal prisoners. Oh yes, business as usual fot the ALP.

  306. Spana

    Interestingly one Gillard’s first tasks was to meet the US ambassador, gush over Obama and reassure the USA that it wil be business as usual in that disgusting war in Afghanistan. I guess this pleased the right wing war mongers in the party.

    So we have a so called leftie committing Australia to another US war in which she will never have to fight in herslef. Australians are dying, Afghanis are being killed but she remains yet another middle class stay at home patriot prepared to wage war while she basks in the glory of power. Disgusting.

    And I bet she continues to appease China while they lock up and torture politcal prisoners. Oh yes, business as usual fot the ALP.

  307. iorarua

    This article has made the most sense to me so far. A huge contrast to all the self-righteous how-Rudd-did-himself-in commentariat clones on offer over the last few days.

    Haven’t read all the comments here but just want to add that the ABC News last night reported that the last opinion poll before Rudd’s demise showed Labor on 53 – totally winnable. I believe that the electorate was tiring of all the anti-Rudd media hysteria and spoilt-brat behaviour of the magnates and turning back to Rudd.

    Now, we’ll never know. What a waste.

  308. iorarua

    This article has made the most sense to me so far. A huge contrast to all the self-righteous how-Rudd-did-himself-in commentariat clones on offer over the last few days.

    Haven’t read all the comments here but just want to add that the ABC News last night reported that the last opinion poll before Rudd’s demise showed Labor on 53 – totally winnable. I believe that the electorate was tiring of all the anti-Rudd media hysteria and spoilt-brat behaviour of the magnates and turning back to Rudd.

    Now, we’ll never know. What a waste.

  309. Pavlov's Cat

    Spana, if you know any other adjectives apart from ‘disgusting’, now would be the time to wheel them out. I see you’re dropping your little cowpats of outrage on every thread at this blog but could you at least make some sort of gesture, however empty, to thread relevance?

  310. Pavlov's Cat

    Spana, if you know any other adjectives apart from ‘disgusting’, now would be the time to wheel them out. I see you’re dropping your little cowpats of outrage on every thread at this blog but could you at least make some sort of gesture, however empty, to thread relevance?

  311. rbeswick

    I’d like reiterate what MH said way back at comment #4.

    A key element in the speed and effectiveness of all this was that Rudd had no support within the party. None. (Apart from a few of the newer caucus members who felt obliged to walk the corridor with him at the very end). Thus he was completely working without a net. The contrast with Hawke could not be starker

    Which is not say that Bill Shorten, Mark Arbib et al and the Murdoch newhacks aren’t ruthless amoral a**h*les.

  312. rbeswick

    I’d like reiterate what MH said way back at comment #4.

    A key element in the speed and effectiveness of all this was that Rudd had no support within the party. None. (Apart from a few of the newer caucus members who felt obliged to walk the corridor with him at the very end). Thus he was completely working without a net. The contrast with Hawke could not be starker

    Which is not say that Bill Shorten, Mark Arbib et al and the Murdoch newhacks aren’t ruthless amoral a**h*les.

  313. Sam

    I think Rudd will make a fine Foreign Minister. Hopefully Gillard will be smart enough to realise that he still has a lot to offer and that her government will be strengthened by having him as one of the senior team. It would be a good gesture electorally too.

    And you never know, Rudd might even come back as PM one day. Sounds crazy but no crazier than exexcuting a first term PM. It’s not in our recent political tradition but think Menzies, Deakin and others early in the 20th century. And God knows Howard was written off more than once but he came back (albeit like Freddy Krueger kept coming back).

  314. Sam

    I think Rudd will make a fine Foreign Minister. Hopefully Gillard will be smart enough to realise that he still has a lot to offer and that her government will be strengthened by having him as one of the senior team. It would be a good gesture electorally too.

    And you never know, Rudd might even come back as PM one day. Sounds crazy but no crazier than exexcuting a first term PM. It’s not in our recent political tradition but think Menzies, Deakin and others early in the 20th century. And God knows Howard was written off more than once but he came back (albeit like Freddy Krueger kept coming back).

  315. adrian

    Peter Hartcher reveals in the SMH that Gillard argued for a dumping of the ETS unless it was supported by the coalition – a more extreme position than that eventually adopted.

    The same front page has banner headline ‘Gillard Saves Labor’ on the basis of one opinion poll. As far as I am concerned the only thing that will save Labor will be a wholesale purging of the party.

  316. adrian

    Peter Hartcher reveals in the SMH that Gillard argued for a dumping of the ETS unless it was supported by the coalition – a more extreme position than that eventually adopted.

    The same front page has banner headline ‘Gillard Saves Labor’ on the basis of one opinion poll. As far as I am concerned the only thing that will save Labor will be a wholesale purging of the party.

  317. Tyro Rex

    Interestingly one Gillard’s first tasks was to meet the US ambassador, gush over Obama and reassure the USA that it wil be business as usual in that disgusting war in Afghanistan. I guess this pleased the right wing war mongers in the party.

    Like the US alliance isn’t our single most important international relationship. Please. Whatever you may think about the war in Afghanistan, maintaining US engagement in our immediate region is our number 1 foreign policy objective … and that will only get stronger as China’s ability to project military power grows.

    Indonesia is our number two priority and I see Bambam was called immediately too, and I bet their ambassador fully briefed within hours.

    Also, what Pavlov’s Cat said.

  318. Tyro Rex

    Interestingly one Gillard’s first tasks was to meet the US ambassador, gush over Obama and reassure the USA that it wil be business as usual in that disgusting war in Afghanistan. I guess this pleased the right wing war mongers in the party.

    Like the US alliance isn’t our single most important international relationship. Please. Whatever you may think about the war in Afghanistan, maintaining US engagement in our immediate region is our number 1 foreign policy objective … and that will only get stronger as China’s ability to project military power grows.

    Indonesia is our number two priority and I see Bambam was called immediately too, and I bet their ambassador fully briefed within hours.

    Also, what Pavlov’s Cat said.

  319. Ute Man

    adrian write:

    The same front page has banner headline ‘Gillard Saves Labor’ on the basis of one opinion poll. As far as I am concerned the only thing that will save Labor will be a wholesale purging of the party.

    It can’t be saved. There is nothing left worth saving. It must be abandoned and utterly destroyed

  320. Ute Man

    adrian write:

    The same front page has banner headline ‘Gillard Saves Labor’ on the basis of one opinion poll. As far as I am concerned the only thing that will save Labor will be a wholesale purging of the party.

    It can’t be saved. There is nothing left worth saving. It must be abandoned and utterly destroyed

  321. Sam

    Peter Hartcher has been on the Rudd drip for a long, long time. Which isn’t to say that what Hartcher/Rudd say about Gillard and the is necessarily untrue, but you have to remember the source.

  322. Sam

    Peter Hartcher has been on the Rudd drip for a long, long time. Which isn’t to say that what Hartcher/Rudd say about Gillard and the is necessarily untrue, but you have to remember the source.

  323. qier

    hey Mr Bahnisch, i’m going to email you. I’ve got a blueprint for achieving good governance written along policy lines as opposed to platitues that i’ve been writing it in stages throughout the year and i’d like to know what you think of it.

  324. qier

    hey Mr Bahnisch, i’m going to email you. I’ve got a blueprint for achieving good governance written along policy lines as opposed to platitues that i’ve been writing it in stages throughout the year and i’d like to know what you think of it.

  325. Patricia WA

    Mutatis Mutandis

    We held our leader in high regard,
    Watched helpless as he was daily mauled
    By media and an opposition fighting hard
    And dirty, with no holds barred.
    And finally when he lay bleeding,
    Victim of press gallery canard,
    Yes we killed him because we knew
    He was near dead, so battle scarred
    And bruised he could never rise again.
    So much was his reputation marred
    Our cause, also dear to him, looked lost.
    No choice but for the old praetorian guard
    To take control and end a tragic farce.
    This was no assassination.
    It was an end to suffering; a ‘coup de grace’.

  326. Patricia WA

    Mutatis Mutandis

    We held our leader in high regard,
    Watched helpless as he was daily mauled
    By media and an opposition fighting hard
    And dirty, with no holds barred.
    And finally when he lay bleeding,
    Victim of press gallery canard,
    Yes we killed him because we knew
    He was near dead, so battle scarred
    And bruised he could never rise again.
    So much was his reputation marred
    Our cause, also dear to him, looked lost.
    No choice but for the old praetorian guard
    To take control and end a tragic farce.
    This was no assassination.
    It was an end to suffering; a ‘coup de grace’.

  327. Paul Burns

    Patricia WA,
    It was indeed. How one changes the media in this country, not the soulless ALP factions who will always be with us.
    Beautiful poem btw.

  328. Paul Burns

    Patricia WA,
    It was indeed. How one changes the media in this country, not the soulless ALP factions who will always be with us.
    Beautiful poem btw.

  329. Brian

    In the main, I think Mark is right to be concerned about the state of democracy, which is arguably more fragile than ‘free’ market capitalism, which itself is not in good shape, plus the difficulty of policy that goes beyond the poll driven. Howard at this point in the electoral cycle would have been planning to throw buckets of money carefully targeted at the electorates that matter. Rudd is unable to do this because he matched Howard’s tax cuts, which, ironically we are going to benefit from in a week or so, but will be taken for granted as no more than our due. Matching Howard’s tax cuts was his first really big mistake IMO.

    My main differences with what I understand to be Mark’s take is that Big Mining and Newscorp wanted to keep Rudd there as a disabled PM ripe for the picking. Getting Gillard instead is an unintended consequence. They think that Julia being there makes their job harder, which was to install Abbott in The Lodge.

    Journalists unfortunately do what journalists do when there is a leadership spill in the air. I recall Catherine McGrath when she was chief political correspondent for the ABC, just after Beazley had made some big policy announcements, choosing to spend 95% of her report talking about whether the Beazer could “cut through”. Not if she chooses to talk about crap instead of policy, obviously.

    On local radio on Monday after a favourable opinion poll (52/48 2pp) and an announcement on telecommunications which was up there with the Snowy mountains scheme in terms of nation building, Madonna King chose to spend the morning inviting people to ring in giving their views on why people didn’t like Kevin Rudd any more. Which they duly did.

    I don’t want to go on too long, but two factors have perhaps received not enough attention. First, like Ootz and Elise on other threads, I think Rudd was close to burn-out. I feared for his performance during the campaign. People won’t vote for a strong leader who doesn’t look strong.

    Secondly, three out of four of the plotting assassins if I’m not mistaken are senators. In a strange way they answer to the party rather than to the electorate. The party should jettison them, carve them out and destroy them, as the gangrenous infection they are. The problem with these guys is that plotting is what they do, it’s their core business, they are useless for anything else.

    Finally, Julia has to take full responsibility for what happened. What it means for Labor at the ballot box and for the country will be revealed in due course. But most of the callers on local radio, about 25 to one I reckon, were mightily upset. The instincts of the people on this one are a reason for some hope that we will not see the likes of this again.

  330. Brian

    In the main, I think Mark is right to be concerned about the state of democracy, which is arguably more fragile than ‘free’ market capitalism, which itself is not in good shape, plus the difficulty of policy that goes beyond the poll driven. Howard at this point in the electoral cycle would have been planning to throw buckets of money carefully targeted at the electorates that matter. Rudd is unable to do this because he matched Howard’s tax cuts, which, ironically we are going to benefit from in a week or so, but will be taken for granted as no more than our due. Matching Howard’s tax cuts was his first really big mistake IMO.

    My main differences with what I understand to be Mark’s take is that Big Mining and Newscorp wanted to keep Rudd there as a disabled PM ripe for the picking. Getting Gillard instead is an unintended consequence. They think that Julia being there makes their job harder, which was to install Abbott in The Lodge.

    Journalists unfortunately do what journalists do when there is a leadership spill in the air. I recall Catherine McGrath when she was chief political correspondent for the ABC, just after Beazley had made some big policy announcements, choosing to spend 95% of her report talking about whether the Beazer could “cut through”. Not if she chooses to talk about crap instead of policy, obviously.

    On local radio on Monday after a favourable opinion poll (52/48 2pp) and an announcement on telecommunications which was up there with the Snowy mountains scheme in terms of nation building, Madonna King chose to spend the morning inviting people to ring in giving their views on why people didn’t like Kevin Rudd any more. Which they duly did.

    I don’t want to go on too long, but two factors have perhaps received not enough attention. First, like Ootz and Elise on other threads, I think Rudd was close to burn-out. I feared for his performance during the campaign. People won’t vote for a strong leader who doesn’t look strong.

    Secondly, three out of four of the plotting assassins if I’m not mistaken are senators. In a strange way they answer to the party rather than to the electorate. The party should jettison them, carve them out and destroy them, as the gangrenous infection they are. The problem with these guys is that plotting is what they do, it’s their core business, they are useless for anything else.

    Finally, Julia has to take full responsibility for what happened. What it means for Labor at the ballot box and for the country will be revealed in due course. But most of the callers on local radio, about 25 to one I reckon, were mightily upset. The instincts of the people on this one are a reason for some hope that we will not see the likes of this again.

  331. Ute Man

    Brian wrote:

    The instincts of the people on this one are a reason for some hope that we will not see the likes of this again.

    15 years of it in NSW Brian with no sign of stopping. We aren’t talking a gangrenous toe that needs to be lopped – we’re talking a monstrous, shuffling zombie.

    If the miners wanted Rudd left in the job, they wouldn’t have done him over the mining tax. It was just the cherry on top of permanently shelving carbon trading.

  332. Ute Man

    Brian wrote:

    The instincts of the people on this one are a reason for some hope that we will not see the likes of this again.

    15 years of it in NSW Brian with no sign of stopping. We aren’t talking a gangrenous toe that needs to be lopped – we’re talking a monstrous, shuffling zombie.

    If the miners wanted Rudd left in the job, they wouldn’t have done him over the mining tax. It was just the cherry on top of permanently shelving carbon trading.

  333. Brian

    Ute Man @ 166, I don’t follow your logic. Let me try again.

    The Mining capitalists want to keep as much of their profit as possible. Abbott promised them the status quo. No extra tax at all.

    So logically they want Abbott to win the election. Their best chance of this was to disable Rudd, make him look inept and ineffective, but keep him in the job. They were never going to compromise and do a deal with Rudd as became very obvious. See Mark’s post here.

    Julia’s putsch is bad news for them.

  334. Brian

    Ute Man @ 166, I don’t follow your logic. Let me try again.

    The Mining capitalists want to keep as much of their profit as possible. Abbott promised them the status quo. No extra tax at all.

    So logically they want Abbott to win the election. Their best chance of this was to disable Rudd, make him look inept and ineffective, but keep him in the job. They were never going to compromise and do a deal with Rudd as became very obvious. See Mark’s post here.

    Julia’s putsch is bad news for them.

  335. adrian

    ‘Julia’s putsch is bad news for them.’

    You couldn’t be more wrong, as will soon be revealed. Why do you think all the corporate interests are so happy, the newspapers full of positive stories about Labor for a change.
    It’s because they knew that Rudd had a very good chance of winning the election, and then all bets would be off. Hence the concerted, co-ordinated, vicious and successful campaign (You don’t seriously think the resurrected Australian Story on Gillard was a coincidence do you?)

    I can’t believe that otherwise intelligent people are buying this patent bullshit.

  336. adrian

    ‘Julia’s putsch is bad news for them.’

    You couldn’t be more wrong, as will soon be revealed. Why do you think all the corporate interests are so happy, the newspapers full of positive stories about Labor for a change.
    It’s because they knew that Rudd had a very good chance of winning the election, and then all bets would be off. Hence the concerted, co-ordinated, vicious and successful campaign (You don’t seriously think the resurrected Australian Story on Gillard was a coincidence do you?)

    I can’t believe that otherwise intelligent people are buying this patent bullshit.

  337. Ute Man

    The logic goes like this:

    Rudd campaigns on a CPRS by co-opting coalition policy, makes it a core promise.
    Turnbull is elevated in the libs.
    Turnbull and Rudd et. al. finalise the details on a largely ineffective policy aimed at mollifying the resource sector (the major polluters) while appeasing the public.
    At the last minute, the resource sector dumps Turnbull when they realise he is serious, collaterally damaging Rudd.
    Rudd is pissed. He is also forced by the resource unions in his own party to dump the policy. At this point, he seeks payback – after all, that’s what he does best.
    Rudd seeks revenge, finds it by cherry picking the RSPT from the Henry tax review.
    Rudd assesses it as a bit of populist, targeted, bullet proof policy that is an easy sell.
    Resource sector smiles, sharpens knives, starts advertising.
    Rudd is more pissed. Starts government advertising. War escalates.
    Rudd returns to the CPRS by (finally) looking to the broad Greens groups to find a different compromise.
    Last straw. Resource sector pulls the rug via Arbib/AWU.
    Gillard tugs the forelock, promises to review (read: water down or remove) the RSPT, changes policy on the CPRS unilaterally by announcing “public consultation”.

    Within 5 years we get the first SASOL built coal-to-liquids plant. I’ll bet that happens before a single litre of carbon is sequestered by “clean coal”.

  338. Ute Man

    The logic goes like this:

    Rudd campaigns on a CPRS by co-opting coalition policy, makes it a core promise.
    Turnbull is elevated in the libs.
    Turnbull and Rudd et. al. finalise the details on a largely ineffective policy aimed at mollifying the resource sector (the major polluters) while appeasing the public.
    At the last minute, the resource sector dumps Turnbull when they realise he is serious, collaterally damaging Rudd.
    Rudd is pissed. He is also forced by the resource unions in his own party to dump the policy. At this point, he seeks payback – after all, that’s what he does best.
    Rudd seeks revenge, finds it by cherry picking the RSPT from the Henry tax review.
    Rudd assesses it as a bit of populist, targeted, bullet proof policy that is an easy sell.
    Resource sector smiles, sharpens knives, starts advertising.
    Rudd is more pissed. Starts government advertising. War escalates.
    Rudd returns to the CPRS by (finally) looking to the broad Greens groups to find a different compromise.
    Last straw. Resource sector pulls the rug via Arbib/AWU.
    Gillard tugs the forelock, promises to review (read: water down or remove) the RSPT, changes policy on the CPRS unilaterally by announcing “public consultation”.

    Within 5 years we get the first SASOL built coal-to-liquids plant. I’ll bet that happens before a single litre of carbon is sequestered by “clean coal”.

  339. josh

    While I share people’s dismay, I am not sure why people think Labor will lose the election over this. Today’s SMH has a Neilson poll out with the ALP up to 55-45 with the Greens voted HALVED.

  340. josh

    While I share people’s dismay, I am not sure why people think Labor will lose the election over this. Today’s SMH has a Neilson poll out with the ALP up to 55-45 with the Greens voted HALVED.

  341. Rebekka

    Brian wrote:

    “The instincts of the people on this one are a reason for some hope that we will not see the likes of this again.”

    Since those instincts resulted in some polls this morning that look positive for Labor and pretty dire for Abbott (particularly the questions on trust, in touch, etc in Galaxy) I think the “instincts of the people” – they’re not what you think they are.

  342. Rebekka

    Brian wrote:

    “The instincts of the people on this one are a reason for some hope that we will not see the likes of this again.”

    Since those instincts resulted in some polls this morning that look positive for Labor and pretty dire for Abbott (particularly the questions on trust, in touch, etc in Galaxy) I think the “instincts of the people” – they’re not what you think they are.

  343. Pavlov's Cat

    They think that Julia being there makes their job harder, which was to install Abbott in The Lodge.

    Well in that case they are incredibly shortsighted, because although Abbott may not have imposed the Great Big New Tax, he is clearly an utterly loose cannon, and if they though they could control him in other ways they must have, ahem, rocks in their heads.

  344. Pavlov's Cat

    They think that Julia being there makes their job harder, which was to install Abbott in The Lodge.

    Well in that case they are incredibly shortsighted, because although Abbott may not have imposed the Great Big New Tax, he is clearly an utterly loose cannon, and if they though they could control him in other ways they must have, ahem, rocks in their heads.

  345. Alison

    I think what they did is wrong – won’t be voting labor.

  346. Alison

    I think what they did is wrong – won’t be voting labor.

  347. Rebekka

    Oh really, Alison, so who will you be voting for? Tony Abbott, who rolled Malcolm Turnbull (remember him?) in a similar coup, or the Greens Party, in which case where is your preference going – because either way, it’s to someone who did something you consider “wrong”.

  348. Rebekka

    Oh really, Alison, so who will you be voting for? Tony Abbott, who rolled Malcolm Turnbull (remember him?) in a similar coup, or the Greens Party, in which case where is your preference going – because either way, it’s to someone who did something you consider “wrong”.

  349. Don Wigan

    “My main differences with what I understand to be Mark’s take is that Big Mining and Newscorp wanted to keep Rudd there as a disabled PM ripe for the picking. Getting Gillard instead is an unintended consequence.” 165 Brian

    I think you’ve got it Brian. I’m starting to think Rudd and his advisers could not handle adversity all that well. And if 84 caucus members also felt that way, Labor was in trouble (not necessarily irreversable, but trouble). And burnout might have been a factor. I still can’t understand the strategy of letting a seemingly unelectable Abbott set the agenda for so long. All it did was force people to take him seriously.

    But nearly always these coups are painful, drawn-out affairs. This was unprecedented in its speed and ruthlessness and caught everybody, friends and foes, by surprise. I’m sure News Ltd and maybe the ABC and Press Gallery were hoping for the traditional response.

    You’re right that Julia must take some responsibility. Perhaps. But you’ve got to say her method of handling the media that night was brilliant. Just a statement that she’d stand – nothing else, not even a public boast about her credentials. She stayed a reasonable distance, at least publicly, from the plotting. And quite rightly since then, she has not run away from her responsibility for the Government ‘losing its way’.

    The body politic may be damaged by these events, but we can say that a lot of damage was done much earlier, as Ken Lovell has said.

  350. Don Wigan

    “My main differences with what I understand to be Mark’s take is that Big Mining and Newscorp wanted to keep Rudd there as a disabled PM ripe for the picking. Getting Gillard instead is an unintended consequence.” 165 Brian

    I think you’ve got it Brian. I’m starting to think Rudd and his advisers could not handle adversity all that well. And if 84 caucus members also felt that way, Labor was in trouble (not necessarily irreversable, but trouble). And burnout might have been a factor. I still can’t understand the strategy of letting a seemingly unelectable Abbott set the agenda for so long. All it did was force people to take him seriously.

    But nearly always these coups are painful, drawn-out affairs. This was unprecedented in its speed and ruthlessness and caught everybody, friends and foes, by surprise. I’m sure News Ltd and maybe the ABC and Press Gallery were hoping for the traditional response.

    You’re right that Julia must take some responsibility. Perhaps. But you’ve got to say her method of handling the media that night was brilliant. Just a statement that she’d stand – nothing else, not even a public boast about her credentials. She stayed a reasonable distance, at least publicly, from the plotting. And quite rightly since then, she has not run away from her responsibility for the Government ‘losing its way’.

    The body politic may be damaged by these events, but we can say that a lot of damage was done much earlier, as Ken Lovell has said.

  351. Patricia WA

    Brian @ 165 I agree with most of your points, except on the ‘assassins’. People like them are a necessary feature in most effective political parties. Realpolitik may be the underbelly of any party, or even government, but it’s as much a vital organ as the heart and the head. So long as head and heart control it, then health and strength are maintained. Continuing with that metaphor, if the heart rules the head and the idealists take over then the body usually comes to grief. The reverse is true as well, of course, but the malaise takes rather longer to reveal itself.

    Re Julia Gillard (not my favorite politician) needing to take full responsibility for what happened, I do recall her doing that from the very beginning and repeating it since. “I take full responsibility for what happened here.” she said and she added to that words to the effect, “I needed to take control.”

    Further to that I pick up your comment, ‘I think Rudd was close to burn-out.’ I expressed the same opinion on a Cafe Whispers thread as being significant in my assessment of Gillard’s motivation apart from her clear ambition. It was ignored. I still feel that, unconsciously or not, Gillard’s latent maternal instinct must have gone into gear watching the media character assassination of Rudd by a thousand cuts. She, as much as Therese Rein, would have been daily aware of his psychological deterioration. I bet Therese Rein, in her heart, is grateful to Gillard and relieved she can take her husband home to rest for a while before he became seriously ill.

    PS please don’t suggest I’m being sexist or even overly sentimental here re. Gillard’s maternal instinct. It was an ‘insight’ that came suddently to me, surely as sound as any had by David Marr. She has stood back for months, helpless to act or say any of the things she knew needed to be said to help him and the party’s situation. Now they were in crisis, manufactured or real, with all the soundings done on behalf of a near paranoid Rudd, the lobbying of caucus members, the twittering and the media speculation. What chaos! Someone had to take control! Mother stepped in.

  352. Patricia WA

    Brian @ 165 I agree with most of your points, except on the ‘assassins’. People like them are a necessary feature in most effective political parties. Realpolitik may be the underbelly of any party, or even government, but it’s as much a vital organ as the heart and the head. So long as head and heart control it, then health and strength are maintained. Continuing with that metaphor, if the heart rules the head and the idealists take over then the body usually comes to grief. The reverse is true as well, of course, but the malaise takes rather longer to reveal itself.

    Re Julia Gillard (not my favorite politician) needing to take full responsibility for what happened, I do recall her doing that from the very beginning and repeating it since. “I take full responsibility for what happened here.” she said and she added to that words to the effect, “I needed to take control.”

    Further to that I pick up your comment, ‘I think Rudd was close to burn-out.’ I expressed the same opinion on a Cafe Whispers thread as being significant in my assessment of Gillard’s motivation apart from her clear ambition. It was ignored. I still feel that, unconsciously or not, Gillard’s latent maternal instinct must have gone into gear watching the media character assassination of Rudd by a thousand cuts. She, as much as Therese Rein, would have been daily aware of his psychological deterioration. I bet Therese Rein, in her heart, is grateful to Gillard and relieved she can take her husband home to rest for a while before he became seriously ill.

    PS please don’t suggest I’m being sexist or even overly sentimental here re. Gillard’s maternal instinct. It was an ‘insight’ that came suddently to me, surely as sound as any had by David Marr. She has stood back for months, helpless to act or say any of the things she knew needed to be said to help him and the party’s situation. Now they were in crisis, manufactured or real, with all the soundings done on behalf of a near paranoid Rudd, the lobbying of caucus members, the twittering and the media speculation. What chaos! Someone had to take control! Mother stepped in.

  353. adrian

    WTF – Now I’ve heard everything – mummy did it for Kevin’s own good. You’re a fool if you believe that tripe; a shameless lackey if you’re passing it on from AWU headquarters.

  354. adrian

    WTF – Now I’ve heard everything – mummy did it for Kevin’s own good. You’re a fool if you believe that tripe; a shameless lackey if you’re passing it on from AWU headquarters.

  355. adrian

    Apologies Patricia WA, I got a bit carried away there. I know that you are neither of those things.

  356. adrian

    Apologies Patricia WA, I got a bit carried away there. I know that you are neither of those things.

  357. Rebekka

    David Marr is a Walkley-award winning journalist who has worked in political journalism for 30 years. That’s why people take *his* insights seriously.

  358. Rebekka

    David Marr is a Walkley-award winning journalist who has worked in political journalism for 30 years. That’s why people take *his* insights seriously.

  359. Ron

    Don Wigan

    1/ “But nearly always these coups are painful, drawn-out affairs”
    Quite so , and non objective emotional reactions arise.. a la Mark and Brian ,

    RATHER than looking aloofly at WHY politcaly a Leadership change was needed and now , and accepting th reality overwhelmingly Labors 115 MP’s believed it was politcaly required , & hense it is why Rudd did not contest a Ballot to save him from total embarasment (Hawke did because alot of Caucus were still with him)

    Hawke’s was also very painful , a sitting PM ….but public knowledge of th Hawke challenge did NOT stop MP’s voting for Hawke in later Spill , thus destroying Mark’s point

    “I’m starting to think Rudd and his advisers could not handle adversity all that well. And if 84 caucus members ( 115 incl Senate) also felt that way, Labor was in trouble…”

    Agree , micro managing and working 20 hours a day as a one man band , and showing no signs he’d change , a pre-requisite to confidense that dire internal polls (that were prob fatal anyway) could ever be reversed under his leedership style & character

    when your own internal polling on repeat polls shows leaving aside notional adj an actual Abbott Govt with a 20 seat majority , then leadership changes always made It always seem cruel , but that has always been politcs hwere & thru all World

    3/ “But you’ve got to say her method of handling the media that night was brilliant…. since then, she has not run away from her responsibility for the Government ‘losing its way’. ”

    agree with all of these coments , Julia will regain Labor’s Primary vote to 40% or over , which allows Labor to win At existing 35% Primary vote and that includes all Labor safe seats , it was always a likely loss Whereas Marginal Seat internal polling showed an actual loss

    9those that despaired emotion when hawke finaly got rolled , returned to Keating and voted FOR him when objectivity returned , & when core left polisys were at stake being lost to libs in an electon

  360. Ron

    Don Wigan

    1/ “But nearly always these coups are painful, drawn-out affairs”
    Quite so , and non objective emotional reactions arise.. a la Mark and Brian ,

    RATHER than looking aloofly at WHY politcaly a Leadership change was needed and now , and accepting th reality overwhelmingly Labors 115 MP’s believed it was politcaly required , & hense it is why Rudd did not contest a Ballot to save him from total embarasment (Hawke did because alot of Caucus were still with him)

    Hawke’s was also very painful , a sitting PM ….but public knowledge of th Hawke challenge did NOT stop MP’s voting for Hawke in later Spill , thus destroying Mark’s point

    “I’m starting to think Rudd and his advisers could not handle adversity all that well. And if 84 caucus members ( 115 incl Senate) also felt that way, Labor was in trouble…”

    Agree , micro managing and working 20 hours a day as a one man band , and showing no signs he’d change , a pre-requisite to confidense that dire internal polls (that were prob fatal anyway) could ever be reversed under his leedership style & character

    when your own internal polling on repeat polls shows leaving aside notional adj an actual Abbott Govt with a 20 seat majority , then leadership changes always made It always seem cruel , but that has always been politcs hwere & thru all World

    3/ “But you’ve got to say her method of handling the media that night was brilliant…. since then, she has not run away from her responsibility for the Government ‘losing its way’. ”

    agree with all of these coments , Julia will regain Labor’s Primary vote to 40% or over , which allows Labor to win At existing 35% Primary vote and that includes all Labor safe seats , it was always a likely loss Whereas Marginal Seat internal polling showed an actual loss

    9those that despaired emotion when hawke finaly got rolled , returned to Keating and voted FOR him when objectivity returned , & when core left polisys were at stake being lost to libs in an electon

  361. adrian

    All those comparing the ‘rolling’ of others in the past forget that in this case it is a serving Prime Minister. I happen to think that this is a crucial difference.

    There is simply no point in voting Labor because now they are no different for the coalition. The only hope for major reform of the party and removal of these thugs is a massive election defeat. Anything else just encourages them.

  362. adrian

    All those comparing the ‘rolling’ of others in the past forget that in this case it is a serving Prime Minister. I happen to think that this is a crucial difference.

    There is simply no point in voting Labor because now they are no different for the coalition. The only hope for major reform of the party and removal of these thugs is a massive election defeat. Anything else just encourages them.

  363. Rebekka

    Hawke was also a serving Prime Minister.

    So was Gorton. And further back, so was Hughes.

    Basing your entire opinion of a political party on whether they occasionally roll a sitting PM is a pretty narrow and parochial viewpoint. How about looking at an occasional policy before you write them all off as identical. Like maybe, oh, industrial relations? Unfair dismissal laws? That sort of thing?

  364. Rebekka

    Hawke was also a serving Prime Minister.

    So was Gorton. And further back, so was Hughes.

    Basing your entire opinion of a political party on whether they occasionally roll a sitting PM is a pretty narrow and parochial viewpoint. How about looking at an occasional policy before you write them all off as identical. Like maybe, oh, industrial relations? Unfair dismissal laws? That sort of thing?

  365. Rebekka

    Also, everything Ron said.

  366. Rebekka

    Also, everything Ron said.

  367. Patricia WA

    That’s okay, Adrian. Oh, the tears of things. Your first response made me cry, and now I’m really blubbering all overy my desk.

    Odd, isn’t it. After all this rubbish about robot Rudd, how upset he was and how moved we all are in our different ways. We all have such personal perspectives and inevitably different emotional responses. Reading yours I sensed your outrage at what you saw as betrayal. So I haven’t been able to respond to your comments which for once seem different from mine.

    I was so pleased to see John Faulkner walk down with his PM to that Caucus meeting. Solidarity, honour, trustworthiness. All those things. But later I realised it was because I hoped he was being supported by someone he trusted, someone who had given him good advice which he was heeding.

    All very Freudian, I suppose. John Faulkner big daddy!

    Hey, Rebekka! You’re so right. We should ask David Marr what he thinks. His ideas could be seminal here. On second thoughts, perhaps not really productive.

  368. Patricia WA

    That’s okay, Adrian. Oh, the tears of things. Your first response made me cry, and now I’m really blubbering all overy my desk.

    Odd, isn’t it. After all this rubbish about robot Rudd, how upset he was and how moved we all are in our different ways. We all have such personal perspectives and inevitably different emotional responses. Reading yours I sensed your outrage at what you saw as betrayal. So I haven’t been able to respond to your comments which for once seem different from mine.

    I was so pleased to see John Faulkner walk down with his PM to that Caucus meeting. Solidarity, honour, trustworthiness. All those things. But later I realised it was because I hoped he was being supported by someone he trusted, someone who had given him good advice which he was heeding.

    All very Freudian, I suppose. John Faulkner big daddy!

    Hey, Rebekka! You’re so right. We should ask David Marr what he thinks. His ideas could be seminal here. On second thoughts, perhaps not really productive.

  369. Rebekka

    @Patricia, well you did claim “It was an ‘insight’ that came suddently to me, surely as sound as any had by David Marr. ”

    And the claim that your political insights are just as “sound” as any David Marr has? Actually, no. I wasn’t suggesting we ask him, I was just suggesting your claim is actually nonsensical.

  370. Rebekka

    @Patricia, well you did claim “It was an ‘insight’ that came suddently to me, surely as sound as any had by David Marr. ”

    And the claim that your political insights are just as “sound” as any David Marr has? Actually, no. I wasn’t suggesting we ask him, I was just suggesting your claim is actually nonsensical.

  371. adrian

    I’m really sorry Patricia WA. As you have no doubt realised I’m pretty upset about what I see as the destruction of a good man for no reason – in fact for reasons that will be counter productive. Anyway that’s no excuse for upsetting you so.

    If I’m ever in WA I’ll buy you a drink!

  372. adrian

    I’m really sorry Patricia WA. As you have no doubt realised I’m pretty upset about what I see as the destruction of a good man for no reason – in fact for reasons that will be counter productive. Anyway that’s no excuse for upsetting you so.

    If I’m ever in WA I’ll buy you a drink!

  373. Mark

    @182 – Hawke had been elected three times. The process of overthrowing him took 6 months, and there were substantive policy differences between him and Keating.

    Rudd was elected once, and never faced an election as PM. The process of overthrowing him took about 6 hours, and if there are substantive policy differences between him and Gillard, we’re yet to hear what they were.

    Hughes is so far back in time it’s irrelevant, and I would expect the Labor party to act differently from the Liberals in tossing out Gorton.

    I’d also add – with references to Ron’s comments, I have very little time for people who would have recited talking points at the beginning of the week about how wonderful KRudd was and then switch seamlessly to reciting talking points about how terrible he was and how Gillard is teh birilliant a few days later.

  374. Mark

    @182 – Hawke had been elected three times. The process of overthrowing him took 6 months, and there were substantive policy differences between him and Keating.

    Rudd was elected once, and never faced an election as PM. The process of overthrowing him took about 6 hours, and if there are substantive policy differences between him and Gillard, we’re yet to hear what they were.

    Hughes is so far back in time it’s irrelevant, and I would expect the Labor party to act differently from the Liberals in tossing out Gorton.

    I’d also add – with references to Ron’s comments, I have very little time for people who would have recited talking points at the beginning of the week about how wonderful KRudd was and then switch seamlessly to reciting talking points about how terrible he was and how Gillard is teh birilliant a few days later.

  375. Chiller

    Those people above who try to suggest that there is anything real in the “polls” about Julia’s popularity seem to forget one little, but very important thing. What part of the population did they same for these “polls”? If it’s not a real cross-section, then it has no bearing on real opinion. And I dont believe it does.

    Secondly, there has been great public support for Rudd and even more so since this coup happened. Look at Twitter – that had real time information about this. Terms such as “Gillard”, “Rudd”, “spill” were high for a while and if you notice, Gillard’s name was used by many to write posts that had nothing to do with her, just to inflate their tweets to a high level, because she was the #1 trending topic. You wont find as many tweets like that for Rudd.

    Additionally, the page which now has the content for Gillard’s information on the ALP site was inundated with negative comments, so they removed it.

    And these are just the public who had access to a computer or who could be bothered to make a comment. This is a reflection of the rest of Australia’s opinion about this matter.

    All these factors should tell some of you something – Labor will lose at the next election. People are very unhappy about

  376. Chiller

    Those people above who try to suggest that there is anything real in the “polls” about Julia’s popularity seem to forget one little, but very important thing. What part of the population did they same for these “polls”? If it’s not a real cross-section, then it has no bearing on real opinion. And I dont believe it does.

    Secondly, there has been great public support for Rudd and even more so since this coup happened. Look at Twitter – that had real time information about this. Terms such as “Gillard”, “Rudd”, “spill” were high for a while and if you notice, Gillard’s name was used by many to write posts that had nothing to do with her, just to inflate their tweets to a high level, because she was the #1 trending topic. You wont find as many tweets like that for Rudd.

    Additionally, the page which now has the content for Gillard’s information on the ALP site was inundated with negative comments, so they removed it.

    And these are just the public who had access to a computer or who could be bothered to make a comment. This is a reflection of the rest of Australia’s opinion about this matter.

    All these factors should tell some of you something – Labor will lose at the next election. People are very unhappy about

  377. chiller

    That first paragraph should read (I bolded the typo):

    Those people above who try to suggest that there is anything real in the “polls” about Julia’s popularity seem to forget one little, but very important thing. What part of the population did they sample for these “polls”? If it’s not a real cross-section, then it has no bearing on real opinion. And I dont believe it does.

  378. chiller

    That first paragraph should read (I bolded the typo):

    Those people above who try to suggest that there is anything real in the “polls” about Julia’s popularity seem to forget one little, but very important thing. What part of the population did they sample for these “polls”? If it’s not a real cross-section, then it has no bearing on real opinion. And I dont believe it does.

  379. Patricia WA

    Rebekka: I think I read your comment appropriately, though I did try to exploit your emphasis on *his* to lighten things up a bit. I don’t claim any authority on things psychological, or political for that matter, but thoughts come up. I know myself well enough to know that something that makes sense one day looks perfectly ridiculous in another light at another time.

    This is a particularly emotional time. I’ve always been such a Rudd fan, still am. But, like Ron, I’m an old Labour diehard. One thing I did like hearing from Gillard is that she’s a Nye Bevan fan. Interestingly that great Trade Union hero was once responsible for a schism in his party. Let’s hope Julia will be able to avoid emulating her hero in that regard.

    Adrian: It wasn’t your fault so much as my general teariness about all of this. Like you I feel that Rudd has been very badly done by, but we seem this time to differ on where to assign blame.
    I am astonished at how deeply upset I am, and I imagine many people feel the same. Kevin Rennie has provided a lead to his own site and thoughts on this over at Cafe Whispers which I read today and found made sense to me.

  380. Patricia WA

    Rebekka: I think I read your comment appropriately, though I did try to exploit your emphasis on *his* to lighten things up a bit. I don’t claim any authority on things psychological, or political for that matter, but thoughts come up. I know myself well enough to know that something that makes sense one day looks perfectly ridiculous in another light at another time.

    This is a particularly emotional time. I’ve always been such a Rudd fan, still am. But, like Ron, I’m an old Labour diehard. One thing I did like hearing from Gillard is that she’s a Nye Bevan fan. Interestingly that great Trade Union hero was once responsible for a schism in his party. Let’s hope Julia will be able to avoid emulating her hero in that regard.

    Adrian: It wasn’t your fault so much as my general teariness about all of this. Like you I feel that Rudd has been very badly done by, but we seem this time to differ on where to assign blame.
    I am astonished at how deeply upset I am, and I imagine many people feel the same. Kevin Rennie has provided a lead to his own site and thoughts on this over at Cafe Whispers which I read today and found made sense to me.

  381. chiller

    So, if there is real discontent with Julia Gillard and this coup, it has certainly been reflected in people’s opinions on the Internet (including the negative comments to Julia Gillards’ ALP page), which to me suggests that those “polls” are nothing but hot air, aimed to convince the common people that the coup was the best thing for us all. It just goes to show how what we are fed through some of our government officials and the media is so far from reality. It’s complete disconcerting that it happens in a so-called democracy. Just goes to show how little democracy we really have here!

  382. chiller

    So, if there is real discontent with Julia Gillard and this coup, it has certainly been reflected in people’s opinions on the Internet (including the negative comments to Julia Gillards’ ALP page), which to me suggests that those “polls” are nothing but hot air, aimed to convince the common people that the coup was the best thing for us all. It just goes to show how what we are fed through some of our government officials and the media is so far from reality. It’s complete disconcerting that it happens in a so-called democracy. Just goes to show how little democracy we really have here!

  383. Ootz

    Patricia, in a panel discussion postroll, Marr was asked how KR will cope with such a blow. He responded by saying, if anyone will spring back and learn from such an experience it will be Rudd. He has done it in early and throughout his life. Internal fortitude ability to absorb and adapt and such.

    I think too, Marrs choice of ‘anger’ was unfortunate and perhaps more nuanced. My interpretation was more kind of mismanaged passion/emotions, an other brick to my conclusion re burnout. It can happen to the best of us!

    As to the realpolitic of it all, AFAICS there is no stabbing implement stuck in KRs back as with Gaius Julius, so we have progressed somewhat.
    As for Marks concern re ethics and morality of media and party machinations, I just would like to point out that we as spectators are somewhat as complicit for the ‘theater’ we are watching. All these outburst of “I can never vote for labor again .. vote informal etc”. As to the media, hands up who is still buying the australian and watches telly crap. Ditto mining, look around you, where is all this stuff coming from?

  384. Ootz

    Patricia, in a panel discussion postroll, Marr was asked how KR will cope with such a blow. He responded by saying, if anyone will spring back and learn from such an experience it will be Rudd. He has done it in early and throughout his life. Internal fortitude ability to absorb and adapt and such.

    I think too, Marrs choice of ‘anger’ was unfortunate and perhaps more nuanced. My interpretation was more kind of mismanaged passion/emotions, an other brick to my conclusion re burnout. It can happen to the best of us!

    As to the realpolitic of it all, AFAICS there is no stabbing implement stuck in KRs back as with Gaius Julius, so we have progressed somewhat.
    As for Marks concern re ethics and morality of media and party machinations, I just would like to point out that we as spectators are somewhat as complicit for the ‘theater’ we are watching. All these outburst of “I can never vote for labor again .. vote informal etc”. As to the media, hands up who is still buying the australian and watches telly crap. Ditto mining, look around you, where is all this stuff coming from?

  385. Shingle

    I wonder what old Gough Whitlam is thinking.

  386. Shingle

    I wonder what old Gough Whitlam is thinking.

  387. Pavlov's Cat

    And I wonder how many of the people trashing Marr here have actually read the essay.

  388. Pavlov's Cat

    And I wonder how many of the people trashing Marr here have actually read the essay.

  389. Fine

    I think there’s so much hyperbole here about destroying a good man etc. The ALP is ruthless. Yes, it only took about 6 hours. How is that worse than destabilising and leaking against a leader for 6 months as happened with Hawke? Or Hawke rolling Hayden who could have won the 1983 election, just because Hawke could roll him?

    If internal polling was so bad, then Gillard had a duty to stand against Rudd. And when it comes to elections, it’s not just about policy, it’s about personality.

    I’m in Beijing at the moment and I’ve had a few emails from friends ecstatic about this and who are now voting Labor. Before they were voting Green. Also a text from a friend who’s rejoing the ALP after years of absence. This is just going to play out differently for different people.

    Incidentally, this is quite big news in Beijing, where CCTV seems to be portraying Rudd as someone who they thought was their friend, but who betrayed thme. (Rebiyah Kadeer and Rio Tinto). The young female receptionist was very excited; “you have a female PM and she’s single and childless”. I was astonished she knew.

  390. Fine

    I think there’s so much hyperbole here about destroying a good man etc. The ALP is ruthless. Yes, it only took about 6 hours. How is that worse than destabilising and leaking against a leader for 6 months as happened with Hawke? Or Hawke rolling Hayden who could have won the 1983 election, just because Hawke could roll him?

    If internal polling was so bad, then Gillard had a duty to stand against Rudd. And when it comes to elections, it’s not just about policy, it’s about personality.

    I’m in Beijing at the moment and I’ve had a few emails from friends ecstatic about this and who are now voting Labor. Before they were voting Green. Also a text from a friend who’s rejoing the ALP after years of absence. This is just going to play out differently for different people.

    Incidentally, this is quite big news in Beijing, where CCTV seems to be portraying Rudd as someone who they thought was their friend, but who betrayed thme. (Rebiyah Kadeer and Rio Tinto). The young female receptionist was very excited; “you have a female PM and she’s single and childless”. I was astonished she knew.

  391. Mark

    @195 – Fine, it is clear to me that people can reasonably disagree on the merits of this action. However I don’t believe that a statement that “the ALP is ruthless” really goes to the issue of how it was done, an issue I tried to canvas with some thought in the article posted at The Drum and reproduced here. I’ve also tried to explain at some length what I think the differences between this leadership change and previous ones have been, and I think those differences are salient.

  392. Mark

    @195 – Fine, it is clear to me that people can reasonably disagree on the merits of this action. However I don’t believe that a statement that “the ALP is ruthless” really goes to the issue of how it was done, an issue I tried to canvas with some thought in the article posted at The Drum and reproduced here. I’ve also tried to explain at some length what I think the differences between this leadership change and previous ones have been, and I think those differences are salient.

  393. Brian

    Ootz @ 192, I think you heard Phillip Adams interviewing David Marr and Laura Tingle.

    Marr said that he thought Rudd was personally more tough and resilient than any of the other PMs or leaders that had been rolled.

    Adams commented on the distinct lack of anger on Rudd’s part. Marr’s response was curious, saying that he’d need three hours to explain what “anger” meant. In other words, I gather it wasn’t the common language meaning of the term. What he briefly said sounded more like “passion” forged out of personal adversity, a passion that informs his mission in life, a passion to create the opportunities and pathways for others who are dealt roughly by circumstance.

    Don Wigan @ 175, Gillard is certainly willing to take responsibility for what she did. Quite explicitly so, as you say.

    Rebekka @ 171, obviously I didn’t have the advantage of the poll when I wrote my comment. The animus from 612 4QR listeners was overwhelming and quite unmistakable. But the future will tell how all this turns out. I certainly don’t know.

  394. Brian

    Ootz @ 192, I think you heard Phillip Adams interviewing David Marr and Laura Tingle.

    Marr said that he thought Rudd was personally more tough and resilient than any of the other PMs or leaders that had been rolled.

    Adams commented on the distinct lack of anger on Rudd’s part. Marr’s response was curious, saying that he’d need three hours to explain what “anger” meant. In other words, I gather it wasn’t the common language meaning of the term. What he briefly said sounded more like “passion” forged out of personal adversity, a passion that informs his mission in life, a passion to create the opportunities and pathways for others who are dealt roughly by circumstance.

    Don Wigan @ 175, Gillard is certainly willing to take responsibility for what she did. Quite explicitly so, as you say.

    Rebekka @ 171, obviously I didn’t have the advantage of the poll when I wrote my comment. The animus from 612 4QR listeners was overwhelming and quite unmistakable. But the future will tell how all this turns out. I certainly don’t know.

  395. Mark

    @197 – Brian, in the Galaxy poll 48% of respondents thought that the decision to replace Rudd was a bad decision driven by panic and 45% thought it was a good decision.

    http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/2010/06/26/first-gillard-polling/#more-8187

    Whether or not this starts to sink in for those voters (including the substantial minority of Labor voters – 41%) is an unknown at this stage. But it may and I still think that the speed of the change, and what I think are quite unconvincing answers about why it happened, are a problem for Labor.

  396. Mark

    @197 – Brian, in the Galaxy poll 48% of respondents thought that the decision to replace Rudd was a bad decision driven by panic and 45% thought it was a good decision.

    http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/2010/06/26/first-gillard-polling/#more-8187

    Whether or not this starts to sink in for those voters (including the substantial minority of Labor voters – 41%) is an unknown at this stage. But it may and I still think that the speed of the change, and what I think are quite unconvincing answers about why it happened, are a problem for Labor.

  397. Mark
  398. Mark
  399. Lefty E

    Lets not forget Rudd’s final Morgan poll – which showed a substantial (3%) primary swing back to the ALP in the wake of parental leave, NBN etc.

  400. Lefty E

    Lets not forget Rudd’s final Morgan poll – which showed a substantial (3%) primary swing back to the ALP in the wake of parental leave, NBN etc.

  401. Mark

    Update: In today’s Fin, Pamela Williams confirms that the AWU’s Paul Howes and Bill Ludwig were directly phoning MPs on Wednesday night.

  402. Mark

    Update: In today’s Fin, Pamela Williams confirms that the AWU’s Paul Howes and Bill Ludwig were directly phoning MPs on Wednesday night.

  403. Brian

    Mark @ 198, thanks for that. I’ve been out wielding a chainsaw in the wilds of Upper Brookfield and haven’t had time to catch up with everything.

    I’d have to say the ferocity of the reaction of local radio listeners surprised me, but the problem is that you don’t know who was ringing up. Some were undoubtedly rusted on Coalition voters, but there was a fair quota of people who said “I’m a Labor voter but…”

    There was also a vox pop in the seat of Brisbane, sounded like younger people, who were asked whether they would rather Gillard or Rudd. It came out 13/12 in favour of Gillard, but most sounded as though they didn’t much care either way.

  404. Brian

    Mark @ 198, thanks for that. I’ve been out wielding a chainsaw in the wilds of Upper Brookfield and haven’t had time to catch up with everything.

    I’d have to say the ferocity of the reaction of local radio listeners surprised me, but the problem is that you don’t know who was ringing up. Some were undoubtedly rusted on Coalition voters, but there was a fair quota of people who said “I’m a Labor voter but…”

    There was also a vox pop in the seat of Brisbane, sounded like younger people, who were asked whether they would rather Gillard or Rudd. It came out 13/12 in favour of Gillard, but most sounded as though they didn’t much care either way.

  405. Brian

    BTW, I don’t find the intervention of Howes and Bill Ludwig at all acceptable. Stinks.

  406. Brian

    BTW, I don’t find the intervention of Howes and Bill Ludwig at all acceptable. Stinks.

  407. Patricia WA

    Pavlov’s Cat @ 194 – I don’t think anyone was ‘trashing’ David Marr. I mentioned him in passing because quite apart from his prepared questions to Rudd for what became a well rounded, fair and positive essay, he does concede that his more questionable theory about Rudd’s ‘anger’ came up because of an unexpected serve he got from the PM once the interview was done and dusted.

    I like Marr and have always appreciated his forthright expression of opinions I tend to agree with, particularly his compassion for boat people. I wish he had extended that same compassion to the PM in a panel discussion (Q&A?) when he jeered at Rudd’s resolution to ‘work harder’ in response to poor polling.

    Just as Brian suspected it, even then I thought that Rudd was on the edge of burn-out and his ‘I must work harder’ response confirmed it for me. I’m no clinician but over many years of professional life I’ve seen plenty of cases of burn-out in staff. As well I’ve experienced it in my own family where my long-ago husband refused to accept that the problems we were having with alcohol resulted from his overwork. It was many years after our family had broken up before he understood himself at all. Some time later I myself experienced burn-out and fortunately crashed, although it did mean the end of one career and the need after recovery to start another.

    Yes, Brian, I listened to that interview on LNL with Tingle and I thought Marr was much more generous about Rudd and probably right in his estimate that Rudd is resilient. Perhaps the spill will shock him into self-awareness. Whatever, I still think Therese, though sharing his grief and outrage, will be relieved to have him home for a while. I see today that John Faulkner is acting as go-between for Rudd with Gillard. Good man.

  408. Patricia WA

    Pavlov’s Cat @ 194 – I don’t think anyone was ‘trashing’ David Marr. I mentioned him in passing because quite apart from his prepared questions to Rudd for what became a well rounded, fair and positive essay, he does concede that his more questionable theory about Rudd’s ‘anger’ came up because of an unexpected serve he got from the PM once the interview was done and dusted.

    I like Marr and have always appreciated his forthright expression of opinions I tend to agree with, particularly his compassion for boat people. I wish he had extended that same compassion to the PM in a panel discussion (Q&A?) when he jeered at Rudd’s resolution to ‘work harder’ in response to poor polling.

    Just as Brian suspected it, even then I thought that Rudd was on the edge of burn-out and his ‘I must work harder’ response confirmed it for me. I’m no clinician but over many years of professional life I’ve seen plenty of cases of burn-out in staff. As well I’ve experienced it in my own family where my long-ago husband refused to accept that the problems we were having with alcohol resulted from his overwork. It was many years after our family had broken up before he understood himself at all. Some time later I myself experienced burn-out and fortunately crashed, although it did mean the end of one career and the need after recovery to start another.

    Yes, Brian, I listened to that interview on LNL with Tingle and I thought Marr was much more generous about Rudd and probably right in his estimate that Rudd is resilient. Perhaps the spill will shock him into self-awareness. Whatever, I still think Therese, though sharing his grief and outrage, will be relieved to have him home for a while. I see today that John Faulkner is acting as go-between for Rudd with Gillard. Good man.

  409. Aleisha

    About the polls:

    Last weekend, Morgan poll showed: Labour 53% and Liberals 47%

    Just after Judas Julia got in, preliminary polls showed: Labor 52% Liberals 48%

    So basically they show support for her went down a bit and that poll I quoted was from Galaxy research, not the Morgan poll that is usually and officially used. It will be interesting to see what the Morgan poll shows for this weekend and if the numbers go down even more for Judas Julia.

    I predict her support will continue to go down!

    Mark @201

    Update: In today’s Fin, Pamela Williams confirms that the AWU’s Paul Howes and Bill Ludwig were directly phoning MPs on Wednesday night.

    Given the content of Howe’s discussion on Lateline on Wednesday night, that does not suprise me one bit! Shame on him!

    That gloating face of Judas Julia bothers me so much! And the fact that her behaviour reminds me of Howard, that bothers me way more! As that is indicative as to the type of leader she will be – not one that I would ever respect!

    What a way for a woman to get into power? Confirm every stereotype some have about women (especially misogynists) – bitchy, backstabbing and disloyal. Good going Julia!

    And I would feel exactly the same way as I do still about this awful change of PM, irrespective of who it was that did the backstabbing.

    You know all the Liberals would need to do would be to reinstate Turnbull and Gillard would be finished before she even gets her head into the Lodge.

  410. Aleisha

    About the polls:

    Last weekend, Morgan poll showed: Labour 53% and Liberals 47%

    Just after Judas Julia got in, preliminary polls showed: Labor 52% Liberals 48%

    So basically they show support for her went down a bit and that poll I quoted was from Galaxy research, not the Morgan poll that is usually and officially used. It will be interesting to see what the Morgan poll shows for this weekend and if the numbers go down even more for Judas Julia.

    I predict her support will continue to go down!

    Mark @201

    Update: In today’s Fin, Pamela Williams confirms that the AWU’s Paul Howes and Bill Ludwig were directly phoning MPs on Wednesday night.

    Given the content of Howe’s discussion on Lateline on Wednesday night, that does not suprise me one bit! Shame on him!

    That gloating face of Judas Julia bothers me so much! And the fact that her behaviour reminds me of Howard, that bothers me way more! As that is indicative as to the type of leader she will be – not one that I would ever respect!

    What a way for a woman to get into power? Confirm every stereotype some have about women (especially misogynists) – bitchy, backstabbing and disloyal. Good going Julia!

    And I would feel exactly the same way as I do still about this awful change of PM, irrespective of who it was that did the backstabbing.

    You know all the Liberals would need to do would be to reinstate Turnbull and Gillard would be finished before she even gets her head into the Lodge.

  411. Aleisha

    And both these newspapers polling show that Abbott will win, as I predicted (and I take absolutely not joy in that result, whatsoever)!

    I think as someone said above, as time goes on, this coup and the nonsensical way it was conducted will really start to get to people more and more and they will turn away from Labor because of it. As far as I am concerned there was absolutely no reason to get rid of Rudd from his job as PM. None whatsoever. Labor’s current gloating smiles will be wiped from their faces when they lose the next election! An election they should have easily won. Dammit!

    HeraldSun article from 24 June – rather biased commentary
    Majority of public says Kevin Rudd to blame for removal from power
    But, look at the votes people have cast – Abbott is ahead

    News Limited article from 24 June – another article
    Labor switch to Julia Gillard switch fails to win voters – poll

  412. Aleisha

    And both these newspapers polling show that Abbott will win, as I predicted (and I take absolutely not joy in that result, whatsoever)!

    I think as someone said above, as time goes on, this coup and the nonsensical way it was conducted will really start to get to people more and more and they will turn away from Labor because of it. As far as I am concerned there was absolutely no reason to get rid of Rudd from his job as PM. None whatsoever. Labor’s current gloating smiles will be wiped from their faces when they lose the next election! An election they should have easily won. Dammit!

    HeraldSun article from 24 June – rather biased commentary
    Majority of public says Kevin Rudd to blame for removal from power
    But, look at the votes people have cast – Abbott is ahead

    News Limited article from 24 June – another article
    Labor switch to Julia Gillard switch fails to win voters – poll

  413. Pavlov's Cat

    The view from Abu Dhabi.

  414. Pavlov's Cat

    The view from Abu Dhabi.

  415. Eric Sykes

    Well I see the melodramatic soap opera of a Ruddster love fest continues at Lavartus. Very weird, previously you’ve seemed far more worldly wise than this. Katz, Paul Burns, sg and Pavlovs Cat have all put sane and reasonable arguements and, hey, mostly have been shouted down by a kind of shocked hysteria IMHO. Everyone’s also quoting the same press that Mr Demore has so eloquently shown to be vacuous and you have all agreed to be so….like, they’ve all suddenly become reliable sources have they? Again for good measure: nobody in my world is disapointed or angry, people are really pleased, many saying they’ll vote ALP again after many years, or for the first time, this includes previous green voters. So are you sure this is not about your own ego and the fact you didn’t predict it? Are you sure? Really? Cause I am at loss to understand how such an intelligent blog, which I love visiting and occasionally sniping in from the sidelines, has turned into a complete basket case overnite 😉

  416. Eric Sykes

    Well I see the melodramatic soap opera of a Ruddster love fest continues at Lavartus. Very weird, previously you’ve seemed far more worldly wise than this. Katz, Paul Burns, sg and Pavlovs Cat have all put sane and reasonable arguements and, hey, mostly have been shouted down by a kind of shocked hysteria IMHO. Everyone’s also quoting the same press that Mr Demore has so eloquently shown to be vacuous and you have all agreed to be so….like, they’ve all suddenly become reliable sources have they? Again for good measure: nobody in my world is disapointed or angry, people are really pleased, many saying they’ll vote ALP again after many years, or for the first time, this includes previous green voters. So are you sure this is not about your own ego and the fact you didn’t predict it? Are you sure? Really? Cause I am at loss to understand how such an intelligent blog, which I love visiting and occasionally sniping in from the sidelines, has turned into a complete basket case overnite 😉

  417. Pavlov's Cat

    Katz, Paul Burns, sg and Pavlovs Cat have all put sane and reasonable arguements and, hey, mostly have been shouted down by a kind of shocked hysteria IMHO.

    And Rebekka.

    Actually I’m going to take a little holiday from reading LP before I say something that might get me into trouble, and come back when the bizarre playground bullshit like ‘Judas Julia’ has died down a bit.

  418. Pavlov's Cat

    Katz, Paul Burns, sg and Pavlovs Cat have all put sane and reasonable arguements and, hey, mostly have been shouted down by a kind of shocked hysteria IMHO.

    And Rebekka.

    Actually I’m going to take a little holiday from reading LP before I say something that might get me into trouble, and come back when the bizarre playground bullshit like ‘Judas Julia’ has died down a bit.

  419. josh

    Aleisha – Morgan always has a higher ALP vote than the other polls. Always. So you can’t compare it to the Galaxy Poll.

    Comparing like for like, Neilson had the ALP up 8% from its previous poll. We can assume some of that was to fix an outlier (no way was the ALP at 47TPP) but it’s a big bounce nonetheless.

    I repeat: I am angry about how it happened too – but don’t assume that everyone else is equally angry, especially since Gillard will get a (sustained) bounce for being the first woman PM – a lot of women (and some men) who swing their vote and don’t pay much attention to the policy details will probably not want her to go down in flames.

  420. josh

    Aleisha – Morgan always has a higher ALP vote than the other polls. Always. So you can’t compare it to the Galaxy Poll.

    Comparing like for like, Neilson had the ALP up 8% from its previous poll. We can assume some of that was to fix an outlier (no way was the ALP at 47TPP) but it’s a big bounce nonetheless.

    I repeat: I am angry about how it happened too – but don’t assume that everyone else is equally angry, especially since Gillard will get a (sustained) bounce for being the first woman PM – a lot of women (and some men) who swing their vote and don’t pay much attention to the policy details will probably not want her to go down in flames.

  421. Eric Sykes

    yes indeed..and Rebekka.

  422. Eric Sykes

    yes indeed..and Rebekka.

  423. tigtog

    Eric Sykes, I too am bemused by the vehemence of the outrage. Coup, putsch etc? That’s revoltingly egregious hyperbole.

    I grok why some people think that leaders should only be deposed on substantive policy differences, but I’m not sure that should be a gold standard. What happened this week was essentially a Vote of No Confidence, and I don’t see why that isn’t a valid reason to depose a leader, I just don’t.

    I did have some concern about how the voters are going to read it, and I still do, but I’m not as concerned about that as I was a few days ago.

  424. tigtog

    Eric Sykes, I too am bemused by the vehemence of the outrage. Coup, putsch etc? That’s revoltingly egregious hyperbole.

    I grok why some people think that leaders should only be deposed on substantive policy differences, but I’m not sure that should be a gold standard. What happened this week was essentially a Vote of No Confidence, and I don’t see why that isn’t a valid reason to depose a leader, I just don’t.

    I did have some concern about how the voters are going to read it, and I still do, but I’m not as concerned about that as I was a few days ago.

  425. Brian

    Eric, on the press, I’d say thank God for Fairfax, especially the Fin Review, and there especially Laura Tingle. So if you go back and look at who has been quoted I think you will find that the press has been quoted very selectively and not the mob who were running a shameless campaign against the Labor Government with a particular focus on its leader.

    PC, Mark’s overriding concern as I understand it is for the functioning of democracy and the diminished possibility in the future of adopting policies that make a difference, as against pandering to the right in order to claim the middle with poll-driven policies.

    The NSW Right practice seems to be if the polls are crook, change the leader and move to the right. Rudd’s took aim at this development in his speech to caucus, apparently, which was spot on.

    For myself, I wasn’t as sanguine as some others about Rudd’s ability to win the campaign. Rudd had Turnbull’s measure but he didn’t have the Coalition’s under Abbott. Tingle says Rudd was not even winning the daily battle in parliament.

    Also I’m not in a position to assess how dysfunctional Rudd’s administrative style was. The view from Tingle and others I’d take notice of seems to be “very” and his alienation of everyone from Gillard down virtually complete.

    There is a different view from Patrick Weller who spent four weeks embedded in Rudd’s office. The interview was a bit squishy, however, and I don’t know how subjective Weller’s views may have been.

    When all is said and done, though, I suspect the Rudd Government’s achievements will be seen as significant and much more then a footnote in history.

    The notion of the AWU’s Bill Ludwig being able to deliver a block of caucus votes from Qld is scary beyond measure and in itself is reason enough to change the way Labor leaders are elected. I understand Mark is planning to outline the British system and that if we adopted something similar a putsch such as we’ve seen would not be possible.

  426. Brian

    Eric, on the press, I’d say thank God for Fairfax, especially the Fin Review, and there especially Laura Tingle. So if you go back and look at who has been quoted I think you will find that the press has been quoted very selectively and not the mob who were running a shameless campaign against the Labor Government with a particular focus on its leader.

    PC, Mark’s overriding concern as I understand it is for the functioning of democracy and the diminished possibility in the future of adopting policies that make a difference, as against pandering to the right in order to claim the middle with poll-driven policies.

    The NSW Right practice seems to be if the polls are crook, change the leader and move to the right. Rudd’s took aim at this development in his speech to caucus, apparently, which was spot on.

    For myself, I wasn’t as sanguine as some others about Rudd’s ability to win the campaign. Rudd had Turnbull’s measure but he didn’t have the Coalition’s under Abbott. Tingle says Rudd was not even winning the daily battle in parliament.

    Also I’m not in a position to assess how dysfunctional Rudd’s administrative style was. The view from Tingle and others I’d take notice of seems to be “very” and his alienation of everyone from Gillard down virtually complete.

    There is a different view from Patrick Weller who spent four weeks embedded in Rudd’s office. The interview was a bit squishy, however, and I don’t know how subjective Weller’s views may have been.

    When all is said and done, though, I suspect the Rudd Government’s achievements will be seen as significant and much more then a footnote in history.

    The notion of the AWU’s Bill Ludwig being able to deliver a block of caucus votes from Qld is scary beyond measure and in itself is reason enough to change the way Labor leaders are elected. I understand Mark is planning to outline the British system and that if we adopted something similar a putsch such as we’ve seen would not be possible.

  427. Su

    Yes, I’m of the same mind, and I think you may be right about one source of the outrage Eric Sykes, though for mine this also smacks of a double standard ie the expectation of far higher standards of behaviour from women cf men.

  428. Su

    Yes, I’m of the same mind, and I think you may be right about one source of the outrage Eric Sykes, though for mine this also smacks of a double standard ie the expectation of far higher standards of behaviour from women cf men.

  429. Mark

    @209 – Dr Cat, from the link you posted at your blog:

    actually caucus voted on it, and whether you like it or not that is the way Australian politics works

    http://stilllifewithcat.blogspot.com/2010/06/coup-schmoup.html

    The problem is that caucus wasn’t given a real choice between Gillard and Rudd, and no vote was taken. That’s why I’ve characterised it as a coup and a putsch. And I’ve gone to some length, with arguments, to explain exactly why I think it differs from past leadership challenges, and why I think the manner in which it was executed is disturbing.

    And I also don’t think we have to accept it as “the way Australian politics works” as if that’s just to present us with a given that ought not to be analysed and critiqued.

    As to the claims about hyperbole and melodrama, surely this was an extraordinary event. The removal of a first term PM has never before occurred in our history.

    I don’t see it as surprising, or as reason for censure, that some people have got emotional about these events. I think it’s understandable, and I think I’d prefer people to have strong feelings about politics.

    I’m not referring to anyone on this thread, but it’s the attitude of “get over it, it had to be done, hardheads made the right choice” which has been evident in a lot of quarters which I find distasteful in the extreme.

    @214 – su, I can only speak for myself, but I haven’t any animus towards Gillard. I like her, and always have. I don’t accuse her of overweening ambition or anything, and I’m happy to take pretty much at face value in her statement that she did what she thought was right.

    But I am still disappointed that she ascended to the top job via some very grubby backroom machinations by a bunch of self-serving right wing machine boys, many of whom seem largely to have been motivated by pique and bruised egos.

  430. Mark

    @209 – Dr Cat, from the link you posted at your blog:

    actually caucus voted on it, and whether you like it or not that is the way Australian politics works

    http://stilllifewithcat.blogspot.com/2010/06/coup-schmoup.html

    The problem is that caucus wasn’t given a real choice between Gillard and Rudd, and no vote was taken. That’s why I’ve characterised it as a coup and a putsch. And I’ve gone to some length, with arguments, to explain exactly why I think it differs from past leadership challenges, and why I think the manner in which it was executed is disturbing.

    And I also don’t think we have to accept it as “the way Australian politics works” as if that’s just to present us with a given that ought not to be analysed and critiqued.

    As to the claims about hyperbole and melodrama, surely this was an extraordinary event. The removal of a first term PM has never before occurred in our history.

    I don’t see it as surprising, or as reason for censure, that some people have got emotional about these events. I think it’s understandable, and I think I’d prefer people to have strong feelings about politics.

    I’m not referring to anyone on this thread, but it’s the attitude of “get over it, it had to be done, hardheads made the right choice” which has been evident in a lot of quarters which I find distasteful in the extreme.

    @214 – su, I can only speak for myself, but I haven’t any animus towards Gillard. I like her, and always have. I don’t accuse her of overweening ambition or anything, and I’m happy to take pretty much at face value in her statement that she did what she thought was right.

    But I am still disappointed that she ascended to the top job via some very grubby backroom machinations by a bunch of self-serving right wing machine boys, many of whom seem largely to have been motivated by pique and bruised egos.

  431. Eric Sykes

    Brian yes, take your point about the Tingler, but honestly it just seems to me to be such, as tigtog says, hypebole. It is the Labor party after all, ugly bastards, just like, yes, News Corp, but for goodness sake they’ve always been ugly, they just got uglier. So what?

    And yes Rudd did some good things but he was also a rabidly right wing christian moralist and had lost all cred. As Katz has repeatedly pointed out – the entire caucus, the whole bloody lot, not a sinlge vote to be had. Now honestly, is it smart to go into a really vital fight against the Monk, who would be the worst thing to happen to Australia since invasion day (imho) with a party that cynical about it’s own leader? I think not.

    And the “Abbott is a fool nobody will vote for him” romantics are it seems to me, not only deeply wrong, but kinda the same people who are now so offended. The fact that Abbott is a fool is why people will vote for him (again imho) and now they’ll have someone sitting opposite him, with the full support of her party, tackling him head on. Thank goodnes, I truely believe our chances of winning have just gone up.

  432. Eric Sykes

    Brian yes, take your point about the Tingler, but honestly it just seems to me to be such, as tigtog says, hypebole. It is the Labor party after all, ugly bastards, just like, yes, News Corp, but for goodness sake they’ve always been ugly, they just got uglier. So what?

    And yes Rudd did some good things but he was also a rabidly right wing christian moralist and had lost all cred. As Katz has repeatedly pointed out – the entire caucus, the whole bloody lot, not a sinlge vote to be had. Now honestly, is it smart to go into a really vital fight against the Monk, who would be the worst thing to happen to Australia since invasion day (imho) with a party that cynical about it’s own leader? I think not.

    And the “Abbott is a fool nobody will vote for him” romantics are it seems to me, not only deeply wrong, but kinda the same people who are now so offended. The fact that Abbott is a fool is why people will vote for him (again imho) and now they’ll have someone sitting opposite him, with the full support of her party, tackling him head on. Thank goodnes, I truely believe our chances of winning have just gone up.

  433. Mark

    @208 – A friend of mine, who’s a big Labor party activist, commented on Facebook that no one who wasn’t a News Limited journo or a rightwing Senator could have seen this coming. She’s right. I’m no Jack Strocchi and my ego doesn’t rest on whether I can ‘predict’ political events – indeed, as I’ve said a number of times, often in argument with Strocchi, I regard that as a meaningless thing.

    I’d also note that I think a lot of people are upset because of the clear footprints the press gallery and corporate interests have left all over the place.

    I’d question the claim that Rudd is being canonised. Reflecting on all this over the past few days, it does seem to me right to say that he was too ambitious in what he tried to do, badly organised, and possibly close to burnout. However, I’d present as an alternative to overthrowing him what I suggested on another thread:

    http://larvatusprodeo.net/2010/06/26/assessing-julia-gillard-as-pm/#comment-894355

    I think I also feel for the guy because he’s had to cop so much crap about being a robot only concerned with personal ambition. One of the pleasing things, for me, is that it should now be clear that – despite all his failings, and we all have them – he’s a decent person who genuinely wanted to do his best by his country.

  434. Mark

    @208 – A friend of mine, who’s a big Labor party activist, commented on Facebook that no one who wasn’t a News Limited journo or a rightwing Senator could have seen this coming. She’s right. I’m no Jack Strocchi and my ego doesn’t rest on whether I can ‘predict’ political events – indeed, as I’ve said a number of times, often in argument with Strocchi, I regard that as a meaningless thing.

    I’d also note that I think a lot of people are upset because of the clear footprints the press gallery and corporate interests have left all over the place.

    I’d question the claim that Rudd is being canonised. Reflecting on all this over the past few days, it does seem to me right to say that he was too ambitious in what he tried to do, badly organised, and possibly close to burnout. However, I’d present as an alternative to overthrowing him what I suggested on another thread:

    http://larvatusprodeo.net/2010/06/26/assessing-julia-gillard-as-pm/#comment-894355

    I think I also feel for the guy because he’s had to cop so much crap about being a robot only concerned with personal ambition. One of the pleasing things, for me, is that it should now be clear that – despite all his failings, and we all have them – he’s a decent person who genuinely wanted to do his best by his country.

  435. Su

    It was also Laura Tingle who told Marr that cabinet processes had totally broken down, that proposals were no longer circulated 2 weeks before cabinet that instead they arrived at cabinet meetings to find a folder of decisions taken by the big 4, a folder they were not even allowed to take away with them after the meeting. There is no way to sweep that under the carpet and it is quite clearly and obviously the main explanation that Rudd did not have had the numbers against Gillard. A severe breakdown in democratic process within the government, not some weird conspiracy in which Arbib and Shorten managed to bamboozle caucus into voting out an otherwise satisfactory leader.

  436. Su

    It was also Laura Tingle who told Marr that cabinet processes had totally broken down, that proposals were no longer circulated 2 weeks before cabinet that instead they arrived at cabinet meetings to find a folder of decisions taken by the big 4, a folder they were not even allowed to take away with them after the meeting. There is no way to sweep that under the carpet and it is quite clearly and obviously the main explanation that Rudd did not have had the numbers against Gillard. A severe breakdown in democratic process within the government, not some weird conspiracy in which Arbib and Shorten managed to bamboozle caucus into voting out an otherwise satisfactory leader.

  437. Fine

    Yes, su I’m fascinated about the weeping and wailing about Rudd. Last week LP was full of people who weren’t voting Labor because he’d stuffed up that much. Yes, it’s grubby and unsavoury and the whole thing has been pushed along by the MSM aided by Labor people leaking to them. But, I don’t see what’s new about this. Caucus chooses who leads the party. If Rudd had thought he could have won a spill, he would have stood. They plainly can’t stand him and there’s evidence why that’s so. I think it’s unfair. I like Rudd and I think he’s a good man. But I’m also excited that we have a PM who’s a single, childless aetheist woman. I don’t think we should pay any attention to the polls either right now. And we won’t know whether it’s a good decision until election day.

    Mark, I remember it wasn’t long ago that you recommended that Rudd stand down after the next election in favour of Gillard. Well, it all happened just a bit faster.

  438. Fine

    Yes, su I’m fascinated about the weeping and wailing about Rudd. Last week LP was full of people who weren’t voting Labor because he’d stuffed up that much. Yes, it’s grubby and unsavoury and the whole thing has been pushed along by the MSM aided by Labor people leaking to them. But, I don’t see what’s new about this. Caucus chooses who leads the party. If Rudd had thought he could have won a spill, he would have stood. They plainly can’t stand him and there’s evidence why that’s so. I think it’s unfair. I like Rudd and I think he’s a good man. But I’m also excited that we have a PM who’s a single, childless aetheist woman. I don’t think we should pay any attention to the polls either right now. And we won’t know whether it’s a good decision until election day.

    Mark, I remember it wasn’t long ago that you recommended that Rudd stand down after the next election in favour of Gillard. Well, it all happened just a bit faster.

  439. Pavlov's Cat

    Mark, it’s not you I’m worried about. I think you’re a special case for a number of reasons, not least because you’re a Queenslander and a sociologist and have therefore been observing Rudd for a very long time, have complex feelings about him, and probably know more about him that anyone else. I take what you’re saying very seriously, even if I don’t agree with some of it. And you make your case in a sober way despite the fact that you are obviously very upset. It’s the pileup of hysterical, aggressive, self-righteous one-liners from name-callers anxious to establish their ideological cred that’s starting to get very wearing. That and things like Silkworm’s paranoia about Zionists and so on.

    About the vote thing, well, Tracy is in Abu Dhabi and was getting much of her info from a friend, so a not totally accurate picture is inevitable, but still, in the sense that the numbers were counted and action taken on the basis of the numbers, they did sort of vote in a way. I think Tracy’s real and very important point is that by international standards (and especially those of Abu Dhabi), the events of last week weren’t as terrible as some people are painting them. And Tracy is a pro-refugee Amnesty activist, so it’s not as if she’s basing her response on knee-jerk political positions, as are many here. Again, I don’t mean you, and I’m reasonably sure that one of the things that’s eating at you is what a shame it is that you can’t celebrate the first female PM as you might have liked to.

  440. Pavlov's Cat

    Mark, it’s not you I’m worried about. I think you’re a special case for a number of reasons, not least because you’re a Queenslander and a sociologist and have therefore been observing Rudd for a very long time, have complex feelings about him, and probably know more about him that anyone else. I take what you’re saying very seriously, even if I don’t agree with some of it. And you make your case in a sober way despite the fact that you are obviously very upset. It’s the pileup of hysterical, aggressive, self-righteous one-liners from name-callers anxious to establish their ideological cred that’s starting to get very wearing. That and things like Silkworm’s paranoia about Zionists and so on.

    About the vote thing, well, Tracy is in Abu Dhabi and was getting much of her info from a friend, so a not totally accurate picture is inevitable, but still, in the sense that the numbers were counted and action taken on the basis of the numbers, they did sort of vote in a way. I think Tracy’s real and very important point is that by international standards (and especially those of Abu Dhabi), the events of last week weren’t as terrible as some people are painting them. And Tracy is a pro-refugee Amnesty activist, so it’s not as if she’s basing her response on knee-jerk political positions, as are many here. Again, I don’t mean you, and I’m reasonably sure that one of the things that’s eating at you is what a shame it is that you can’t celebrate the first female PM as you might have liked to.

  441. Liam

    what a shame it is that you can’t celebrate the first female PM as you might have liked to

    That’s my position precisely, PC, I wish I’d been able to articulate it myself.

  442. Liam

    what a shame it is that you can’t celebrate the first female PM as you might have liked to

    That’s my position precisely, PC, I wish I’d been able to articulate it myself.

  443. Katz

    One of the pleasing things, for me, is that it should now be clear that – despite all his failings, and we all have them – he’s a decent person who genuinely wanted to do his best by his country.

    Leadership: the game where competence trumps sincerity.

  444. Katz

    One of the pleasing things, for me, is that it should now be clear that – despite all his failings, and we all have them – he’s a decent person who genuinely wanted to do his best by his country.

    Leadership: the game where competence trumps sincerity.

  445. Mark

    @220 – thanks, Dr Cat. Yes, one of the things that is galling me is that I’d like to be rapturously happy about the first female PM, and the fact that it is Julia Gillard!

    And, Fine, yes that’s true. I’m not sure that it was all that considered a remark, but what I had in mind was a managed transition somewhat different from what has occurred! But I think I was getting very frustrated about the way the government was travelling, and in particular, the apparent backdown on climate change, which I think was a tragedy of the highest order.

    To return to Dr Cat’s comment, I think I have become more aware of the fact that my feelings about Rudd are complex. In terms of the Queensland thing, I also think anything that Bill Ludwig is involved in is worrying – I could tell a lot of stories about the way he and other AWU boys spread some really vicious rumours about Anna Bligh’s personal life and sexual orientation in order to try to forestall her becoming Premier, and about the deals made to ensure their acquiescence, which are actually at the root of a lot of what has gone very wrong since.

    There are a lot of people in Labor circles in Queensland, including some MPs and Senators I know well (and one left woman in caucus who was supporting Rudd), who really are deeply disillusioned with the state of the party, and if people had ever had the misfortune to observe some of these rightwing “powerbrokers” up close, then I think they’d understand.

    I take your point about Tracy. I do think it’s important to distinguish between a choice between a crippled leader and a talented Deputy and a more normal situation where people would have had the chance to consider options over a period of a few days. I don’t think being rushed to a decision in the middle of the night in a febrile atmosphere is optimal.

    I should add that I find silkworm’s comments risible – particularly since Gillard’s purported Christian Zionism seems to exist only in his imagination.

  446. Mark

    @220 – thanks, Dr Cat. Yes, one of the things that is galling me is that I’d like to be rapturously happy about the first female PM, and the fact that it is Julia Gillard!

    And, Fine, yes that’s true. I’m not sure that it was all that considered a remark, but what I had in mind was a managed transition somewhat different from what has occurred! But I think I was getting very frustrated about the way the government was travelling, and in particular, the apparent backdown on climate change, which I think was a tragedy of the highest order.

    To return to Dr Cat’s comment, I think I have become more aware of the fact that my feelings about Rudd are complex. In terms of the Queensland thing, I also think anything that Bill Ludwig is involved in is worrying – I could tell a lot of stories about the way he and other AWU boys spread some really vicious rumours about Anna Bligh’s personal life and sexual orientation in order to try to forestall her becoming Premier, and about the deals made to ensure their acquiescence, which are actually at the root of a lot of what has gone very wrong since.

    There are a lot of people in Labor circles in Queensland, including some MPs and Senators I know well (and one left woman in caucus who was supporting Rudd), who really are deeply disillusioned with the state of the party, and if people had ever had the misfortune to observe some of these rightwing “powerbrokers” up close, then I think they’d understand.

    I take your point about Tracy. I do think it’s important to distinguish between a choice between a crippled leader and a talented Deputy and a more normal situation where people would have had the chance to consider options over a period of a few days. I don’t think being rushed to a decision in the middle of the night in a febrile atmosphere is optimal.

    I should add that I find silkworm’s comments risible – particularly since Gillard’s purported Christian Zionism seems to exist only in his imagination.

  447. Paul Burns

    I know I’ve been an advocate of ‘;realpolitick’ about this from when I finally got my head around what had happened. Initially, I was sort of shocked into silence at the enormity of it all. And I still am an advocate of accepting what has happened with as little rancour as possible and concentrating on going forward with our new flaming haired knight in tarnished armour and defeating the Great Imp Abbott, just as our Knight in Shining Armour, Kevin ’07 vanquished the Dragon Howard (for which we should all be eternally grateful.)
    But at least I can read these threads now without my heart breaking. I couldn’t at first.

  448. Paul Burns

    I know I’ve been an advocate of ‘;realpolitick’ about this from when I finally got my head around what had happened. Initially, I was sort of shocked into silence at the enormity of it all. And I still am an advocate of accepting what has happened with as little rancour as possible and concentrating on going forward with our new flaming haired knight in tarnished armour and defeating the Great Imp Abbott, just as our Knight in Shining Armour, Kevin ’07 vanquished the Dragon Howard (for which we should all be eternally grateful.)
    But at least I can read these threads now without my heart breaking. I couldn’t at first.

  449. Trenton

    Eric Sykes, presenting Abbott the scalp of a first term PM is an interesting way of ” taking him on”.

    I was certainly by no means a fan of Rudds but what happened this week inmo sets a dangerous precedent for the party and will invevitably lead to the leadership merry go round as being seen in NSW. The message from this mob really is ” if in doubt throw it out”. How a party will get anything done in the future under these circumstances is beyond me.

    Secondly I don’t believe what happened this week will lead to a successful outcome at the federal election. I think Labor will most likely lose the upcoming poll. I don’t think they would have under Rudd. Ultimately throwing out a first term PM will be seen as an act of political cowardice and more damagingly an act of political panic.

  450. Trenton

    Eric Sykes, presenting Abbott the scalp of a first term PM is an interesting way of ” taking him on”.

    I was certainly by no means a fan of Rudds but what happened this week inmo sets a dangerous precedent for the party and will invevitably lead to the leadership merry go round as being seen in NSW. The message from this mob really is ” if in doubt throw it out”. How a party will get anything done in the future under these circumstances is beyond me.

    Secondly I don’t believe what happened this week will lead to a successful outcome at the federal election. I think Labor will most likely lose the upcoming poll. I don’t think they would have under Rudd. Ultimately throwing out a first term PM will be seen as an act of political cowardice and more damagingly an act of political panic.

  451. adrian

    Ok, if ‘realpolitick’ is just another word for the ends justify the means, what exactly in this case are the ends?

    To get Labor re-elected? They were well on the track to re-election with Rudd.
    The only other end that makes any kind of sense is that the plotters wanted to install someone who was more compliant than Rudd.

    To all those cheering the Gillard leadership and telling the rest of us to basically get over it, I have one question.

    How far to the right does Gillard have to take the party before you question the wisdom of this little exercise in parliamentary democracy?

  452. adrian

    Ok, if ‘realpolitick’ is just another word for the ends justify the means, what exactly in this case are the ends?

    To get Labor re-elected? They were well on the track to re-election with Rudd.
    The only other end that makes any kind of sense is that the plotters wanted to install someone who was more compliant than Rudd.

    To all those cheering the Gillard leadership and telling the rest of us to basically get over it, I have one question.

    How far to the right does Gillard have to take the party before you question the wisdom of this little exercise in parliamentary democracy?

  453. Katz

    How far to the right does Gillard have to take the party before you question the wisdom of this little exercise in parliamentary democracy?

    That’s an interesting question. Referring to my reminiscence about my small role in federal intervention in the Victorian Branch of the ALP in 1970, I recall that I thought that foreign policy, specifically Australian interference in Vietnam, trumped all. I recognised that the ALP would never win a federal election while the Victorian Branch was so much on the nose electorally. Therefore, I supported intervention at the time, even though my ideological home at the time was in the Socialist Left.

    Looking back, I’m not so sure I made the right choice, though the Socialist Left were dead meat with or without my support.

    Later I became reconciled to the new direction taken by Whitlam. However, as I suggested, the cost of intervention on the morale and membership of the ALP was long lasting and erosive of democracy.

    So the short answer to Adrian’s interesting question: it’s hard to say.

  454. Katz

    How far to the right does Gillard have to take the party before you question the wisdom of this little exercise in parliamentary democracy?

    That’s an interesting question. Referring to my reminiscence about my small role in federal intervention in the Victorian Branch of the ALP in 1970, I recall that I thought that foreign policy, specifically Australian interference in Vietnam, trumped all. I recognised that the ALP would never win a federal election while the Victorian Branch was so much on the nose electorally. Therefore, I supported intervention at the time, even though my ideological home at the time was in the Socialist Left.

    Looking back, I’m not so sure I made the right choice, though the Socialist Left were dead meat with or without my support.

    Later I became reconciled to the new direction taken by Whitlam. However, as I suggested, the cost of intervention on the morale and membership of the ALP was long lasting and erosive of democracy.

    So the short answer to Adrian’s interesting question: it’s hard to say.

  455. andyc

    Trenton @ 225: “I was certainly by no means a fan of Rudds but what happened this week inmo sets a dangerous precedent for the party and will invevitably lead to the leadership merry go round as being seen in NSW. The message from this mob really is ” if in doubt throw it out”. How a party will get anything done in the future under these circumstances is beyond me.”

    Which is why the instigators of this coup must themselves be ejected and replaced soon, as a message that repeat performances of this idiocy cannot be tolerated at Federal level.

  456. andyc

    Trenton @ 225: “I was certainly by no means a fan of Rudds but what happened this week inmo sets a dangerous precedent for the party and will invevitably lead to the leadership merry go round as being seen in NSW. The message from this mob really is ” if in doubt throw it out”. How a party will get anything done in the future under these circumstances is beyond me.”

    Which is why the instigators of this coup must themselves be ejected and replaced soon, as a message that repeat performances of this idiocy cannot be tolerated at Federal level.

  457. Sam

    “yes indeed..and Rebekka”

    What about me? It isn’t fair!, etc.

    “I also think anything that Bill Ludwig is involved in is worrying”

    Well, yes, of course. Ludwig is the embodiment of the reason not to vote Labor, ever, if you are looking for one. But when was ever not involved in these kinds of machinations? And there is no doubt, no doubt that all, that the “right wing power brokers” lack even a scintilla of humanity. But this is not news. It was ever thus in the ALP.

    It’s not just the canonisation of Rudd that is absurd. It’s the demonisation of Gillard. On this blog in the past few days, she’s been called Thatcher lite, a patsy for the mining industry, a suck up to Israel, and much else besides. She was even pilloried for talking to Obama – a crime against the people, apparently.

    What Gillard is, is a politician who took her opportunity to become Prime Minister.

    What do you think Peter Costello is thinking at the moment? The agony he must be feeling is exquisite.

    The history of the Labor Party from the get-go is filled with acts of blood chilling bastardry. What happened to Rudd wasn’t the first and it won’t be last.

  458. Sam

    “yes indeed..and Rebekka”

    What about me? It isn’t fair!, etc.

    “I also think anything that Bill Ludwig is involved in is worrying”

    Well, yes, of course. Ludwig is the embodiment of the reason not to vote Labor, ever, if you are looking for one. But when was ever not involved in these kinds of machinations? And there is no doubt, no doubt that all, that the “right wing power brokers” lack even a scintilla of humanity. But this is not news. It was ever thus in the ALP.

    It’s not just the canonisation of Rudd that is absurd. It’s the demonisation of Gillard. On this blog in the past few days, she’s been called Thatcher lite, a patsy for the mining industry, a suck up to Israel, and much else besides. She was even pilloried for talking to Obama – a crime against the people, apparently.

    What Gillard is, is a politician who took her opportunity to become Prime Minister.

    What do you think Peter Costello is thinking at the moment? The agony he must be feeling is exquisite.

    The history of the Labor Party from the get-go is filled with acts of blood chilling bastardry. What happened to Rudd wasn’t the first and it won’t be last.

  459. Trenton

    Haven’t seen to much canonisation of Rudd really. What I have seen is a continual stream of he “got what he deserved” type arguments mostly from people who last Monday would have defended to the hilt. Poltical expediency, the electorate will always sniff that out.

  460. Trenton

    Haven’t seen to much canonisation of Rudd really. What I have seen is a continual stream of he “got what he deserved” type arguments mostly from people who last Monday would have defended to the hilt. Poltical expediency, the electorate will always sniff that out.

  461. Su

    I’d like someone to explain to me how you change leadership without the involvement of the NSW and Victorian right? It was Arbib’s support for Rudd and the package deal with Gillard that got him over the line against Beazley. In the process the parliamentary right split (as I understand – please correct me if I have this wrong). They have now reunited to eject Rudd. I find the suggestions that noone in Caucus knew what was happening until Rudd’s press conference impossible to believe – they were talking about Shorten juggling two phones in some Canberra restaurant well before then, and even Hartcher (who seems to have been briefed by Rudd’s office on previous occasions) says that the numbers began to be counted while Rudd was in Gillard’s office Wednesday evening.

  462. Su

    I’d like someone to explain to me how you change leadership without the involvement of the NSW and Victorian right? It was Arbib’s support for Rudd and the package deal with Gillard that got him over the line against Beazley. In the process the parliamentary right split (as I understand – please correct me if I have this wrong). They have now reunited to eject Rudd. I find the suggestions that noone in Caucus knew what was happening until Rudd’s press conference impossible to believe – they were talking about Shorten juggling two phones in some Canberra restaurant well before then, and even Hartcher (who seems to have been briefed by Rudd’s office on previous occasions) says that the numbers began to be counted while Rudd was in Gillard’s office Wednesday evening.

  463. Paul Burns

    All politics combines around 3 different motivations for action: self-interest, principle and passion. Clearly the Labour Parliamentary Party made a calculation probably based on all three of these. Rudd’s absolutism and government by cabal went against long-grained Party tradition. From all accounts, despite mouthing Labor rhetoric in public, behind the scenes he was behaving like a bastard of a capitalist boss, without the wisdom to delegate responsibility in the decision making process, something which is part of the internal Libor process as I understand it, even in the process of selecting who will be a Minister. So, finally, it got too much for even the psuedo-socialists of the ALP.

  464. Paul Burns

    All politics combines around 3 different motivations for action: self-interest, principle and passion. Clearly the Labour Parliamentary Party made a calculation probably based on all three of these. Rudd’s absolutism and government by cabal went against long-grained Party tradition. From all accounts, despite mouthing Labor rhetoric in public, behind the scenes he was behaving like a bastard of a capitalist boss, without the wisdom to delegate responsibility in the decision making process, something which is part of the internal Libor process as I understand it, even in the process of selecting who will be a Minister. So, finally, it got too much for even the psuedo-socialists of the ALP.

  465. Trenton

    Gee, and there I was thinking it was the disaterous “internal polling” that led to his downfall.

  466. Trenton

    Gee, and there I was thinking it was the disaterous “internal polling” that led to his downfall.

  467. Paul Burns

    ‘internal polling’ that was disastrous comes under self-interest, Trenton. Of course it was one influence, but I think the whole thing was much more nuanced considerations. Unless politicians are acting out of sheer hate or rage, their actions usually are.

  468. Paul Burns

    ‘internal polling’ that was disastrous comes under self-interest, Trenton. Of course it was one influence, but I think the whole thing was much more nuanced considerations. Unless politicians are acting out of sheer hate or rage, their actions usually are.

  469. Cybele

    “She was even pilloried for talking to Obama – a crime against the people, apparently.”

    Not a crime. But did this newly non-elected PM consult with anyone else in the parliamentary ALP let alone more broadly about affirming the commitment of Australian troops to the war in Afghanistan. And if not why not?

    After all Gillard had just told the nation she would be more democratically inclusive and consultative before policy pronouncements by the PM unlike the dreadful autocratic Rudd.

    Australian participation in this war is increasingly popularly opposed by the majority of the population, according to opinion polls, reflecting similar popular sentiment in Europe and America itself.

  470. Cybele

    “She was even pilloried for talking to Obama – a crime against the people, apparently.”

    Not a crime. But did this newly non-elected PM consult with anyone else in the parliamentary ALP let alone more broadly about affirming the commitment of Australian troops to the war in Afghanistan. And if not why not?

    After all Gillard had just told the nation she would be more democratically inclusive and consultative before policy pronouncements by the PM unlike the dreadful autocratic Rudd.

    Australian participation in this war is increasingly popularly opposed by the majority of the population, according to opinion polls, reflecting similar popular sentiment in Europe and America itself.

  471. Cybele

    In my view the presence of women in top positions in politics, the bureaucracy, judiciary, etc is to be welcomed as far as such nominal formal equality goes. But it is hard to get excited about the achievement of a Julia Rudd in all the given circumstances when on most other counts such an individual woman’s success at reaching the top of the totem pole is gained at the expense of a far more fundamental and negative undermining of broader democracy which I think has taken place in tandem with her political elevation.

  472. Cybele

    In my view the presence of women in top positions in politics, the bureaucracy, judiciary, etc is to be welcomed as far as such nominal formal equality goes. But it is hard to get excited about the achievement of a Julia Rudd in all the given circumstances when on most other counts such an individual woman’s success at reaching the top of the totem pole is gained at the expense of a far more fundamental and negative undermining of broader democracy which I think has taken place in tandem with her political elevation.

  473. Cybele

    Love my Freudian. But shd’ve been Julia *Gillard*.

  474. Cybele

    Love my Freudian. But shd’ve been Julia *Gillard*.

  475. tracy

    @Mark @223, yes, well, my ‘whether you like it or not’ is a bit clumsy and you are right to call me on it…I meant that you might not like the specifics but that it was done within a broad democratic context. Of course it should be analysed and critiqued. For myself, I don’t like the specifics, not at all. It’s one of the deep issues I have with the ALP.

  476. tracy

    @Mark @223, yes, well, my ‘whether you like it or not’ is a bit clumsy and you are right to call me on it…I meant that you might not like the specifics but that it was done within a broad democratic context. Of course it should be analysed and critiqued. For myself, I don’t like the specifics, not at all. It’s one of the deep issues I have with the ALP.

  477. Mark

    @238 – no probs, tracy, I don’t think we’re too far apart, then. Obviously there are formal processes within the ALP caucus for electing, removing and changing a leader, but it’s my experience that their manipulation, as in this instance, can be quite egregious.

    @231 –

    They have now reunited to eject Rudd. I find the suggestions that noone in Caucus knew what was happening until Rudd’s press conference impossible to believe

    Two points, su:

    (a) The Victorian right re-united to eject Rudd. As I mentioned in the post, some in the NSW right and the Queensland right continued to support him.

    (b) But that’s not the suggestion. It’s clearly on the record that some MPs and Ministers really didn’t know what was happening until Rudd’s press conference. My understanding is that the previous phone calls (including some from non-causus members Howes and Ludwig) were to shore up the right wing vote, and in particular the votes of those members and Senators aligned to the AWU and SDA.

    The modus operandi of Shorten et al (who I note in today’s papers are being described as “Labor heroes” by Graham Richardson and described themselves as “the public safety committee”) was to assure Gillard they could deliver the votes of the right, or rather, sufficient votes. The secrecy involved meant that they weren’t canvassing people outside the immediate circles within which the plot originated until, at the earliest, late on Wednesday afternoon.

    It appears clear that those members in the left, and many non-aligned members, were in the dark, and that few Cabinet ministers knew what was going on.

  478. Mark

    @238 – no probs, tracy, I don’t think we’re too far apart, then. Obviously there are formal processes within the ALP caucus for electing, removing and changing a leader, but it’s my experience that their manipulation, as in this instance, can be quite egregious.

    @231 –

    They have now reunited to eject Rudd. I find the suggestions that noone in Caucus knew what was happening until Rudd’s press conference impossible to believe

    Two points, su:

    (a) The Victorian right re-united to eject Rudd. As I mentioned in the post, some in the NSW right and the Queensland right continued to support him.

    (b) But that’s not the suggestion. It’s clearly on the record that some MPs and Ministers really didn’t know what was happening until Rudd’s press conference. My understanding is that the previous phone calls (including some from non-causus members Howes and Ludwig) were to shore up the right wing vote, and in particular the votes of those members and Senators aligned to the AWU and SDA.

    The modus operandi of Shorten et al (who I note in today’s papers are being described as “Labor heroes” by Graham Richardson and described themselves as “the public safety committee”) was to assure Gillard they could deliver the votes of the right, or rather, sufficient votes. The secrecy involved meant that they weren’t canvassing people outside the immediate circles within which the plot originated until, at the earliest, late on Wednesday afternoon.

    It appears clear that those members in the left, and many non-aligned members, were in the dark, and that few Cabinet ministers knew what was going on.

  479. Lefty E

    what a shame it is that you can’t celebrate the first female PM as you might have liked to

    Thats a very precise formulation of how I’m feeling too, Pav.

    I’m moving to the view that – of course – whats done is done. But three points remain for me:

    1. Its all about the policies. Let’s not pretend this has solved ‘the problem’. As others have noted, Gillard has to fall one way or the other on RSPT, Climate and asylum seekers, and each decision will cause a poll hit in some constituency or other.

    2. Let us not forget Rudd was turning it around with Parental leave and NBN wins – last morgan poll made that very clear. No poorly evidenced “internal polling” myths over this knifing. Even if such polling is there, it was already dated by the time Rudd was taken down.

    3. I agree Rudd’s actions at the end put the lie to one aspect of the Marr thesis. Here was a man not driven by rage, but motivated by deeply felt outrage over certain issues – homelessness and health – from his own life experience. as I may have mentioned, I know another DFAT veteran who worked cloesly with Rudd in china. Her take is that Rudd spend a lot of time agonising over whether he is lviing up to his own (quaint) version of Christian socialist ethical principles around fariness and human dignity.

    Im sure he was a bad manager of internal ALP politics – and probably a lousy manager of people. But they needed him in 2007 – the machine was not actually working before that. I trust people dont forget that.

  480. Lefty E

    what a shame it is that you can’t celebrate the first female PM as you might have liked to

    Thats a very precise formulation of how I’m feeling too, Pav.

    I’m moving to the view that – of course – whats done is done. But three points remain for me:

    1. Its all about the policies. Let’s not pretend this has solved ‘the problem’. As others have noted, Gillard has to fall one way or the other on RSPT, Climate and asylum seekers, and each decision will cause a poll hit in some constituency or other.

    2. Let us not forget Rudd was turning it around with Parental leave and NBN wins – last morgan poll made that very clear. No poorly evidenced “internal polling” myths over this knifing. Even if such polling is there, it was already dated by the time Rudd was taken down.

    3. I agree Rudd’s actions at the end put the lie to one aspect of the Marr thesis. Here was a man not driven by rage, but motivated by deeply felt outrage over certain issues – homelessness and health – from his own life experience. as I may have mentioned, I know another DFAT veteran who worked cloesly with Rudd in china. Her take is that Rudd spend a lot of time agonising over whether he is lviing up to his own (quaint) version of Christian socialist ethical principles around fariness and human dignity.

    Im sure he was a bad manager of internal ALP politics – and probably a lousy manager of people. But they needed him in 2007 – the machine was not actually working before that. I trust people dont forget that.

  481. Paul Burns

    I love the ‘public safety committee’. WTF did they think they were? Revolutionaries? Not bloody likely in the ALP.
    I’ve spent most of my academic life studying aspects of revolution and its products in one way or another – our quasi-revolutions/Australian socialism/ French and, not in depth, Chinese, as well as the right wing revolutions of Nazism and Fascism (Not much Russian Revolution) and now the American Revolution. In the French and American Revolutions Public Safety Committees were very bloody handed organisations. Not a description politicians should adopt with pride (so much so, one gets the impression sometimes the Americans sometimes play down their roles in their revolutionary history.
    Go Robespierre and Sam Adams! 🙂

  482. Paul Burns

    I love the ‘public safety committee’. WTF did they think they were? Revolutionaries? Not bloody likely in the ALP.
    I’ve spent most of my academic life studying aspects of revolution and its products in one way or another – our quasi-revolutions/Australian socialism/ French and, not in depth, Chinese, as well as the right wing revolutions of Nazism and Fascism (Not much Russian Revolution) and now the American Revolution. In the French and American Revolutions Public Safety Committees were very bloody handed organisations. Not a description politicians should adopt with pride (so much so, one gets the impression sometimes the Americans sometimes play down their roles in their revolutionary history.
    Go Robespierre and Sam Adams! 🙂

  483. Jack Strocchi

    Mark @ #217 said:

    Reflecting on all this over the past few days, it does seem to me right to say that Rudd was too ambitious in what he tried to do, badly organised, and possibly close to burnout.

    I was a bit shocked by the suddenness of the coup. But on reflection it appears to have been the right thing to do.

    True the machine operators have done an end run around democracy, apparently prioritizing political style over policy substance. But at some stage Rudd’s political tin-ear and policy wonkery actually inhibits the process of good governance. And it was giving the L/NP a sniff of victory when they need at least one more term in Opposition before they get their act together.

    Its not just cynical opportunism, although Gillard will no doubt do better than Rudd would have done at the polls. See here for my optimistic post-Gillard, pre-first poll prediction.

    Rudd, despite trying his heart out, just didn’t have it in him to lead a major party. Had some bad luck with Minchin’s Martyrdom Operation. (But then, Napolean always asked of generals in line for promotion: how lucky are they?)

    I have been saying since 2008 that Rudd is more a manager than a leader. A leader takes a given policy and both sells it to the polity and makes it work in the bureaucracy. Most importantly a leader inspires the troops to battle.

    Rudd kept on putting up grand policies which wound up getting bogged down in petty details, at both the level of both policy implementation and political salesmanship. His failure to make the RSPT stick was only going to make things worse. He had to go.

    The public gave him a fair chance to grow into the job and try his hand at leadership. But he kept on failing to deliver. Thats bad for democracy.

  484. Jack Strocchi

    Mark @ #217 said:

    Reflecting on all this over the past few days, it does seem to me right to say that Rudd was too ambitious in what he tried to do, badly organised, and possibly close to burnout.

    I was a bit shocked by the suddenness of the coup. But on reflection it appears to have been the right thing to do.

    True the machine operators have done an end run around democracy, apparently prioritizing political style over policy substance. But at some stage Rudd’s political tin-ear and policy wonkery actually inhibits the process of good governance. And it was giving the L/NP a sniff of victory when they need at least one more term in Opposition before they get their act together.

    Its not just cynical opportunism, although Gillard will no doubt do better than Rudd would have done at the polls. See here for my optimistic post-Gillard, pre-first poll prediction.

    Rudd, despite trying his heart out, just didn’t have it in him to lead a major party. Had some bad luck with Minchin’s Martyrdom Operation. (But then, Napolean always asked of generals in line for promotion: how lucky are they?)

    I have been saying since 2008 that Rudd is more a manager than a leader. A leader takes a given policy and both sells it to the polity and makes it work in the bureaucracy. Most importantly a leader inspires the troops to battle.

    Rudd kept on putting up grand policies which wound up getting bogged down in petty details, at both the level of both policy implementation and political salesmanship. His failure to make the RSPT stick was only going to make things worse. He had to go.

    The public gave him a fair chance to grow into the job and try his hand at leadership. But he kept on failing to deliver. Thats bad for democracy.

  485. Paul Burns

    OTOH, the Left might really have taken over the ALP, and the Right just don’t know it yet. Now that is what I call a master coup. 🙂

  486. Paul Burns

    OTOH, the Left might really have taken over the ALP, and the Right just don’t know it yet. Now that is what I call a master coup. 🙂

  487. Cybele

    Paul, OH&S has long been the last refuge of management acceptable grassroots trade union activity.

    How fitting then that relevancy deprived underemployed ambitious back benchers like Bill Shorten instinctively donned the industrial mantle of national public health and safety to justify their shenanigans.

  488. Cybele

    Paul, OH&S has long been the last refuge of management acceptable grassroots trade union activity.

    How fitting then that relevancy deprived underemployed ambitious back benchers like Bill Shorten instinctively donned the industrial mantle of national public health and safety to justify their shenanigans.

  489. Su

    Thankyou for the correct information on the Vic Right Mark. I am still confused however, as I presume that Shorten’s role was to contact people from his faction to swing behind Gillard because it would have been assumed that Gillard’s close factional supporters would already be on board with the change? Unless they locked Rudd and his staff in a room and confiscated their phones, what is sinister about there being some Ministers and caucus members who found out later than others? Rudd’s people could have been phoning them, that they did not is hardly Gillard or Shorten’s fault.

  490. Su

    Thankyou for the correct information on the Vic Right Mark. I am still confused however, as I presume that Shorten’s role was to contact people from his faction to swing behind Gillard because it would have been assumed that Gillard’s close factional supporters would already be on board with the change? Unless they locked Rudd and his staff in a room and confiscated their phones, what is sinister about there being some Ministers and caucus members who found out later than others? Rudd’s people could have been phoning them, that they did not is hardly Gillard or Shorten’s fault.

  491. Aleisha

    There are plenty of CEO’s who may not be popular with their board, yet they are not as summarily dismissed as Rudd was last week. That is hardly a good reason for deposing a leader. Even the Labor party senators, when on Lateline, cant give a legitimate reason why.

    I like the term Judas Julia, I find it exceedingly fitting and I will continue to use it without censure or censorship from anyone. As far as I was aware, people in this country were still allowed free speech, or did that suddenly change with the events of late?

    The cannonisation is only in some people’s minds here. No-one is doing that. People are just apalled at the way this savagery occured, not because of displaced loyalty or principles, but rather that they feel outraged that this would occur in this manner. Put it this way – how would YOU feel if you were Rudd and this occured to you. That is the crux of the matter. And that is why people feel he was terribly shafted, for no real or justifiable reason at all.

    And while there may be some who were completely Rudd supporters and would hear no word against him, I highly doubt that people on here are of that opinion. As far as I have read, those who are emotional about the events of last week feel betrayed and have a great dislike for the way things occured because there was absolutely no reason for the outcome.

    People who have any analytical skills can understand that Rudd was certainly not perfect, had his issues, but he seemed just a little more genuine and had just a tiny bit more integrity than the average politician. And even 1% more, say, is better than none at all. As I have stated above, I liked Rudd, I liked him when he used to be Labor spokesman against Hockey on Sunrise, where he built a great pofile. He was always salient in his responses and I enjoyed listening to the debates. But I certainly am under no delusions that he wasnt a solo operator, that he had issues with his anger and there wasnt enough consultation.

    But again, I repeat, those were not valid reasons to oust him and certainly not in this manner. I will never accept that, irrespective of what I know about politics and the general backstabbing that goes on within. This just took it a step way too far.

    And no, we should not just accept it. No. We should criticise this if it makes us upset and make our opinions known without censure or censorship.

    Women of course want a strong female in power, but the way this occured will certainly outrage many women who will not vote for Gillard.

    Josh @210 – I wasnt actually comparing it (even though it looked like I was). I was just showing the Galaxy poll results which have been released thus far and the recent Morgan Poll ones, but let’s see what the Morgan polls of this weekend reveal.

  492. Aleisha

    There are plenty of CEO’s who may not be popular with their board, yet they are not as summarily dismissed as Rudd was last week. That is hardly a good reason for deposing a leader. Even the Labor party senators, when on Lateline, cant give a legitimate reason why.

    I like the term Judas Julia, I find it exceedingly fitting and I will continue to use it without censure or censorship from anyone. As far as I was aware, people in this country were still allowed free speech, or did that suddenly change with the events of late?

    The cannonisation is only in some people’s minds here. No-one is doing that. People are just apalled at the way this savagery occured, not because of displaced loyalty or principles, but rather that they feel outraged that this would occur in this manner. Put it this way – how would YOU feel if you were Rudd and this occured to you. That is the crux of the matter. And that is why people feel he was terribly shafted, for no real or justifiable reason at all.

    And while there may be some who were completely Rudd supporters and would hear no word against him, I highly doubt that people on here are of that opinion. As far as I have read, those who are emotional about the events of last week feel betrayed and have a great dislike for the way things occured because there was absolutely no reason for the outcome.

    People who have any analytical skills can understand that Rudd was certainly not perfect, had his issues, but he seemed just a little more genuine and had just a tiny bit more integrity than the average politician. And even 1% more, say, is better than none at all. As I have stated above, I liked Rudd, I liked him when he used to be Labor spokesman against Hockey on Sunrise, where he built a great pofile. He was always salient in his responses and I enjoyed listening to the debates. But I certainly am under no delusions that he wasnt a solo operator, that he had issues with his anger and there wasnt enough consultation.

    But again, I repeat, those were not valid reasons to oust him and certainly not in this manner. I will never accept that, irrespective of what I know about politics and the general backstabbing that goes on within. This just took it a step way too far.

    And no, we should not just accept it. No. We should criticise this if it makes us upset and make our opinions known without censure or censorship.

    Women of course want a strong female in power, but the way this occured will certainly outrage many women who will not vote for Gillard.

    Josh @210 – I wasnt actually comparing it (even though it looked like I was). I was just showing the Galaxy poll results which have been released thus far and the recent Morgan Poll ones, but let’s see what the Morgan polls of this weekend reveal.

  493. Mercurius

    @240 Further to your comments Lefty E,

    If the Liberals had’ve acted in accordance with the rationale that the ALP espoused for getting rid of Rudd, then Howard would’ve been rolled a few months before the 1998, 2001 and 2004 polls.

    In 1998, Howard was campaigning hard on a poorly-understood and widely-feared Great Big New Tax, having “backflipped” on a pre-1996 promise that he would “never ever” introduce it. In pre-Tampa 2001, with petrol at the outrageous price of more than $1 a litre, Howard was seen as “mean and tricky” by an electorate who had grown sick of his “style”. And for most of 2004 Howard was looking out-witted and out-flanked by a wily new opposition leader who had a knack for stealing the media limelight.

    On all three occasions, the Libs even had a viable and declared alternative leadership contender waiting in the wings.

    Each time, the Liberals held their nerve. Each time, they prevailed “against the odds” from poll positions far more dire than anything Rudd ever faced.

    Who are the gutless wonders running the ALP these days?

    The sole material difference, as the gloaters keep reminding us, is that “Rudd had no support” in the party, whereas Howard maintained a masterful control over his party, and they never ran out of gratitude for the election wins he delivered. So much so, that the Libs only lost 2007 because they were paralysed into not replacing Howard when they really needed to — by the twin myths of his invincibility, and his “high level of support” within the party.

  494. Mercurius

    @240 Further to your comments Lefty E,

    If the Liberals had’ve acted in accordance with the rationale that the ALP espoused for getting rid of Rudd, then Howard would’ve been rolled a few months before the 1998, 2001 and 2004 polls.

    In 1998, Howard was campaigning hard on a poorly-understood and widely-feared Great Big New Tax, having “backflipped” on a pre-1996 promise that he would “never ever” introduce it. In pre-Tampa 2001, with petrol at the outrageous price of more than $1 a litre, Howard was seen as “mean and tricky” by an electorate who had grown sick of his “style”. And for most of 2004 Howard was looking out-witted and out-flanked by a wily new opposition leader who had a knack for stealing the media limelight.

    On all three occasions, the Libs even had a viable and declared alternative leadership contender waiting in the wings.

    Each time, the Liberals held their nerve. Each time, they prevailed “against the odds” from poll positions far more dire than anything Rudd ever faced.

    Who are the gutless wonders running the ALP these days?

    The sole material difference, as the gloaters keep reminding us, is that “Rudd had no support” in the party, whereas Howard maintained a masterful control over his party, and they never ran out of gratitude for the election wins he delivered. So much so, that the Libs only lost 2007 because they were paralysed into not replacing Howard when they really needed to — by the twin myths of his invincibility, and his “high level of support” within the party.

  495. Aleisha

    And Judas Julia’s recently revealed that she wants to stop the people growth of Australia.

    Here is the article about her new policy and she has outright lied (again, Howard-esque) that the “people of Sydney are happy about this policy”. On what planet does this woman live?

    Gillard rejects ‘big Australia’

    How about that little gem for pandering to the right factions who so bluntly put her into power? It makes me sick!

    We will see more of this which is aimed to appease the Right (in the party and the part of the Australian population that is xenophobic and who agrees with this – has she been talking to Pauline Hanson for policy advice?). Just what you would expect from a Leftist politician, right? Sure!

    People who voted in Rudd (and yes I know we never technically voted him in per se, but it was him, as the leader of the Labor party and his policies we voted in) did not vote for Gillard and her policies. Ugh. I am as disgusted as I was when Howard got into power.

  496. Aleisha

    And Judas Julia’s recently revealed that she wants to stop the people growth of Australia.

    Here is the article about her new policy and she has outright lied (again, Howard-esque) that the “people of Sydney are happy about this policy”. On what planet does this woman live?

    Gillard rejects ‘big Australia’

    How about that little gem for pandering to the right factions who so bluntly put her into power? It makes me sick!

    We will see more of this which is aimed to appease the Right (in the party and the part of the Australian population that is xenophobic and who agrees with this – has she been talking to Pauline Hanson for policy advice?). Just what you would expect from a Leftist politician, right? Sure!

    People who voted in Rudd (and yes I know we never technically voted him in per se, but it was him, as the leader of the Labor party and his policies we voted in) did not vote for Gillard and her policies. Ugh. I am as disgusted as I was when Howard got into power.

  497. Cybele

    Bill Shorten’s a bold and impatient lad, that’s evident from a number of angles. And he’s notoriously for a long time been indiscreetly complaining long and loud about how “boring”, inept and foolish was the Rudd government and how truly insupportably “dull” being a parliamentary member of it had proved to be for Herr Shorten.

    And try and imagine the ignominy of being outshone for several years now by his younger whipper snipper AWU replacement, the much higher profile but uneducated former street-kid Paul Howes.

    Oh the humiliation.

  498. Cybele

    Bill Shorten’s a bold and impatient lad, that’s evident from a number of angles. And he’s notoriously for a long time been indiscreetly complaining long and loud about how “boring”, inept and foolish was the Rudd government and how truly insupportably “dull” being a parliamentary member of it had proved to be for Herr Shorten.

    And try and imagine the ignominy of being outshone for several years now by his younger whipper snipper AWU replacement, the much higher profile but uneducated former street-kid Paul Howes.

    Oh the humiliation.

  499. Aleisha

    My comment in 247 above should read (I bolded the missing and very important word I missed above):

    Here is the article about her new policy and she has outright lied (again, Howard-esque) that the “people of Western Sydney are happy about this policy”. On what planet does this woman live?

    Mercurius @246

    The sole material difference, as the gloaters keep reminding us, is that “Rudd had no support” in the party, whereas Howard maintained a masterful control over his party, and they never ran out of gratitude for the election wins he delivered. So much so, that the Libs only lost 2007 because they were paralysed into not replacing Howard when they really needed to — by the twin myths of his invincibility, and his “high level of support” within the party.

    Exactly!!

  500. Aleisha

    My comment in 247 above should read (I bolded the missing and very important word I missed above):

    Here is the article about her new policy and she has outright lied (again, Howard-esque) that the “people of Western Sydney are happy about this policy”. On what planet does this woman live?

    Mercurius @246

    The sole material difference, as the gloaters keep reminding us, is that “Rudd had no support” in the party, whereas Howard maintained a masterful control over his party, and they never ran out of gratitude for the election wins he delivered. So much so, that the Libs only lost 2007 because they were paralysed into not replacing Howard when they really needed to — by the twin myths of his invincibility, and his “high level of support” within the party.

    Exactly!!

  501. Su

    I am going to bump my question up the queue because it is a serious one and I fear it will be lost in the tidal wave of partisan ranting:

    In what way is it sinister that Shorten was canvassing for supporters from his own faction and why is it his responsibility or Gillard’s that other caucus members were not informed until later?

  502. Su

    I am going to bump my question up the queue because it is a serious one and I fear it will be lost in the tidal wave of partisan ranting:

    In what way is it sinister that Shorten was canvassing for supporters from his own faction and why is it his responsibility or Gillard’s that other caucus members were not informed until later?

  503. Trenton

    Partisan rantings? People are just expressing a point of view aren’t they.

  504. Trenton

    Partisan rantings? People are just expressing a point of view aren’t they.

  505. Cybele

    We will see more of this which is aimed to appease the Right (in the party and the part of the Australian population that is xenophobic and who agrees with this – has she been talking to Pauline Hanson for policy advice?). Just what you would expect from a Leftist politician, right? Sure!

    Aleisha, it is tempting but ultimately self defeating and delusional to see things in such singular, fixed ideological black-and-white terms.

    You may be right that this is a sop to the self-absorbed prone to xenophobic “right”, but it could equally be seen as Empress Julia throwing bait to the constituency of the mad-dog Malthusian-Bolshevik Greens.

  506. Cybele

    We will see more of this which is aimed to appease the Right (in the party and the part of the Australian population that is xenophobic and who agrees with this – has she been talking to Pauline Hanson for policy advice?). Just what you would expect from a Leftist politician, right? Sure!

    Aleisha, it is tempting but ultimately self defeating and delusional to see things in such singular, fixed ideological black-and-white terms.

    You may be right that this is a sop to the self-absorbed prone to xenophobic “right”, but it could equally be seen as Empress Julia throwing bait to the constituency of the mad-dog Malthusian-Bolshevik Greens.

  507. William Bowe

    Last weekend, Morgan poll showed: Labour 53% and Liberals 47%

    Just after Judas Julia got in, preliminary polls showed: Labor 52% Liberals 48%

    So basically they show support for her went down a bit and that poll I quoted was from Galaxy research, not the Morgan poll that is usually and officially used. It will be interesting to see what the Morgan poll shows for this weekend and if the numbers go down even more for Judas Julia.

    Morgan has shown time and time again that it has a house bias to Labor of at least 3 per cent. It is utterly dishonest to pick out the best poll available for Rudd and the worst poll available to Gillard to claim support for Labor has gone down under Gillard, which any fool can see is wrong.

  508. William Bowe

    Last weekend, Morgan poll showed: Labour 53% and Liberals 47%

    Just after Judas Julia got in, preliminary polls showed: Labor 52% Liberals 48%

    So basically they show support for her went down a bit and that poll I quoted was from Galaxy research, not the Morgan poll that is usually and officially used. It will be interesting to see what the Morgan poll shows for this weekend and if the numbers go down even more for Judas Julia.

    Morgan has shown time and time again that it has a house bias to Labor of at least 3 per cent. It is utterly dishonest to pick out the best poll available for Rudd and the worst poll available to Gillard to claim support for Labor has gone down under Gillard, which any fool can see is wrong.

  509. Trenton

    Equally it would be foolish for anybody to hang their hat on Nielsen’s eight point rise in primary vote for Labor under Gillard when clearly their previous 53/47 for the Libs was of a rogusih nature.

    I reckon the Galaxy 52/48 with a four point rise in primary might be closer to the mark.

  510. Trenton

    Equally it would be foolish for anybody to hang their hat on Nielsen’s eight point rise in primary vote for Labor under Gillard when clearly their previous 53/47 for the Libs was of a rogusih nature.

    I reckon the Galaxy 52/48 with a four point rise in primary might be closer to the mark.

  511. Lefty E

    “Who are the gutless wonders running the ALP these days?”

    Yep, once all the excitement dies down, this question will certainly remain. Halfway through 2nd term would have been the minimum for decency.

    William’s correct that people shouldn’t be cherry picking polls. But the obverse is also true: the case that Rudd was irremediably tanking with the electorate is far from clear cut, and indeed, even reaching such a conclusion at this point of an electoral cycle is an historically questionable act, as Mercurius demonstrates.

  512. Lefty E

    “Who are the gutless wonders running the ALP these days?”

    Yep, once all the excitement dies down, this question will certainly remain. Halfway through 2nd term would have been the minimum for decency.

    William’s correct that people shouldn’t be cherry picking polls. But the obverse is also true: the case that Rudd was irremediably tanking with the electorate is far from clear cut, and indeed, even reaching such a conclusion at this point of an electoral cycle is an historically questionable act, as Mercurius demonstrates.

  513. Sam

    The 2PP vote in the polls is neither here nor there, since it is based on a guess about preferences, especially from the Greens.

    What Gillard has to do is raise Labor’s primary vote. It was sitting at sub 35. That was a recipe for disaster.

    As for calling Gillard Judas Julia, it appears then that Rudd has been turned not into a saint but Christ himself. Wow.

    Some history is might bring some perspective on the betrayal theme. Whitlam was challenged by Hayden, Hayden by Hawke, Hawke by Keating, Crean by Beazley, Beazley by Rudd, and now Rudd by Gillard.

    Does anyone detect a theme?

  514. Sam

    The 2PP vote in the polls is neither here nor there, since it is based on a guess about preferences, especially from the Greens.

    What Gillard has to do is raise Labor’s primary vote. It was sitting at sub 35. That was a recipe for disaster.

    As for calling Gillard Judas Julia, it appears then that Rudd has been turned not into a saint but Christ himself. Wow.

    Some history is might bring some perspective on the betrayal theme. Whitlam was challenged by Hayden, Hayden by Hawke, Hawke by Keating, Crean by Beazley, Beazley by Rudd, and now Rudd by Gillard.

    Does anyone detect a theme?

  515. Sam

    And Whitlam challenged Calwell.

  516. Sam

    And Whitlam challenged Calwell.

  517. Patrickb

    The classical Roman parallels continue. In 88BC Sulla used his legions to unseat Marius. According to Wikipedia:
    “This was a momentous event, and was unforeseen by Marius, as no Roman army had ever marched upon Rome—it was forbidden by law and ancient tradition.”
    I feel at this point in the history of the ALP I feel some resonance with ancient Rome.

  518. Patrickb

    The classical Roman parallels continue. In 88BC Sulla used his legions to unseat Marius. According to Wikipedia:
    “This was a momentous event, and was unforeseen by Marius, as no Roman army had ever marched upon Rome—it was forbidden by law and ancient tradition.”
    I feel at this point in the history of the ALP I feel some resonance with ancient Rome.

  519. Sam

    “I feel some resonance with ancient Rome.”

    If this Roman analogy is to be any guide, then Labor will be in power for the next 500 years.

  520. Sam

    “I feel some resonance with ancient Rome.”

    If this Roman analogy is to be any guide, then Labor will be in power for the next 500 years.

  521. Mark

    @245 and 251 – su, my understanding of the situation is that what Shorten et al were seeking to achieve was a perception that it would be fruitless to vote for Rudd, because a situation where he didn’t survive or only narrowly survived would result in a leader whose position would be utterly destroyed only a few months before an election. The media would have talked of nothing else, whether Rudd won or lost – disunity being the common theme in either case.

    I think that the purpose of the long meeting in Rudd’s office was to try to see whether either he or Gillard would back off, and Faulkner was supposed to be using his good offices to ensure that.

    The goal of the plotters was to round up 50 or 60 votes for Gillard before a challenge was brought on to avoid a vote being taken.

    That’s why it’s significant to me that the views of the rest of caucus (outside those in the right) were not sought before the challenge was actually triggered.

    In previous instances, it has been normal for the challenger (Keating, Rudd, whoever) to go to the leader and inform them of their desire for a contest, and then for there to be several days for each side to lobby caucus members. The speed of this was significant, and significant I think in shaping an outcome where the rest of caucus were presented with what effectively was a fait accompli – support for Rudd and a contested vote would wreck the government so the only option was to go with Gillard. It’s evident that this is what shifted the minds of quite a substantial number of Ministers and others in caucus.

  522. Mark

    @245 and 251 – su, my understanding of the situation is that what Shorten et al were seeking to achieve was a perception that it would be fruitless to vote for Rudd, because a situation where he didn’t survive or only narrowly survived would result in a leader whose position would be utterly destroyed only a few months before an election. The media would have talked of nothing else, whether Rudd won or lost – disunity being the common theme in either case.

    I think that the purpose of the long meeting in Rudd’s office was to try to see whether either he or Gillard would back off, and Faulkner was supposed to be using his good offices to ensure that.

    The goal of the plotters was to round up 50 or 60 votes for Gillard before a challenge was brought on to avoid a vote being taken.

    That’s why it’s significant to me that the views of the rest of caucus (outside those in the right) were not sought before the challenge was actually triggered.

    In previous instances, it has been normal for the challenger (Keating, Rudd, whoever) to go to the leader and inform them of their desire for a contest, and then for there to be several days for each side to lobby caucus members. The speed of this was significant, and significant I think in shaping an outcome where the rest of caucus were presented with what effectively was a fait accompli – support for Rudd and a contested vote would wreck the government so the only option was to go with Gillard. It’s evident that this is what shifted the minds of quite a substantial number of Ministers and others in caucus.

  523. tigtog

    @Aleisha, @Cybele – re Gillard saying no to a “big” Australia – she was very clear on saying that she wanted skilled immigration to continue, but that she didn’t want our population to be unsustainable by outstripping our carrying capacity both ecologically (clean water, clean air, food supply etc) and infrastructure-wise (power generation, public transport, roads etc).

    I see it as pitching much more to the tree-huggers than to the xenophobes, but with a fair amount of middle-of-the-road economic pragmatism thrown in for the centre. Pretty perfectly pitched, actually.

  524. tigtog

    @Aleisha, @Cybele – re Gillard saying no to a “big” Australia – she was very clear on saying that she wanted skilled immigration to continue, but that she didn’t want our population to be unsustainable by outstripping our carrying capacity both ecologically (clean water, clean air, food supply etc) and infrastructure-wise (power generation, public transport, roads etc).

    I see it as pitching much more to the tree-huggers than to the xenophobes, but with a fair amount of middle-of-the-road economic pragmatism thrown in for the centre. Pretty perfectly pitched, actually.

  525. Su

    I don’t know Mark, unless you are saying that it is against normal protocol for people to begin to guage possible support before a challenge is officially mounted then I continue to be perplexed as to why Shorten’s behaviour is seen as so unusual. Rudd had already taken his own soundings the previous day as we know. The same facts seem open to a less sinister interpretation IMO. If you are going to take the unprecedented and high risk step of removing a PM a few months short of an election you had better do it as quickly and cleanly as possible. I don’t know this reporter but there is another timetable of the day’s events here. According to that report Howes wasn’t infomed until 6pm although I agree that his appearance on television seems like meddling. It also says that that it was Albanese who convinced Rudd not to stand when the numbers looked overwhelming.

  526. Su

    I don’t know Mark, unless you are saying that it is against normal protocol for people to begin to guage possible support before a challenge is officially mounted then I continue to be perplexed as to why Shorten’s behaviour is seen as so unusual. Rudd had already taken his own soundings the previous day as we know. The same facts seem open to a less sinister interpretation IMO. If you are going to take the unprecedented and high risk step of removing a PM a few months short of an election you had better do it as quickly and cleanly as possible. I don’t know this reporter but there is another timetable of the day’s events here. According to that report Howes wasn’t infomed until 6pm although I agree that his appearance on television seems like meddling. It also says that that it was Albanese who convinced Rudd not to stand when the numbers looked overwhelming.

  527. Mercurius

    @259 I feel at this point in the history of the ALP I feel some resonance with ancient Rome.

    Indeed — Plutarch wrote that, upon Sulla’s death, his body was riddled with lice and worms! 😀

  528. Mercurius

    @259 I feel at this point in the history of the ALP I feel some resonance with ancient Rome.

    Indeed — Plutarch wrote that, upon Sulla’s death, his body was riddled with lice and worms! 😀

  529. Katz

    But there was a prior link in this chain of causation.

    Rudd sent his numbers men around to enquire as to the loyalty of the caucus. For those in the ministry who held portfolios at Rudd’s pleasure may well have looked like a Night of the Long Knives.

    It was the appearance of Rudd’s numbers men that, according to Gillard, caused her to seek safety in numbers.

    Gillard wouldn’t be lying about this, would she?

  530. Katz

    But there was a prior link in this chain of causation.

    Rudd sent his numbers men around to enquire as to the loyalty of the caucus. For those in the ministry who held portfolios at Rudd’s pleasure may well have looked like a Night of the Long Knives.

    It was the appearance of Rudd’s numbers men that, according to Gillard, caused her to seek safety in numbers.

    Gillard wouldn’t be lying about this, would she?

  531. Sam

    Tigtog 262, that’s what I thought. Rudd’s Big Australia thought bubble earlier in the year was stupid as both policy and politically.

    Mark 261, obviously there wasn’t time before the election to have a protracted challenge. What Rudd could have done was say that he wasn’t going cliently and if that brought death and destruction upon the Labor Party, so be it. If the plotters thought he was serious, they might have backed off, unless they thought death and destruction was coming away. But he would never have convinced them that he was serious. No Labor leader since Evatt has purposely blown up the party and Rudd is no Evatt.

  532. Sam

    Tigtog 262, that’s what I thought. Rudd’s Big Australia thought bubble earlier in the year was stupid as both policy and politically.

    Mark 261, obviously there wasn’t time before the election to have a protracted challenge. What Rudd could have done was say that he wasn’t going cliently and if that brought death and destruction upon the Labor Party, so be it. If the plotters thought he was serious, they might have backed off, unless they thought death and destruction was coming away. But he would never have convinced them that he was serious. No Labor leader since Evatt has purposely blown up the party and Rudd is no Evatt.

  533. Sam

    cliently = quietly

  534. Sam

    cliently = quietly

  535. Mark

    @263 – Su, perhaps we’re just going to have to agree to interpret the events differently. I tried to set out my reasons in the post and in subsequent comments, and I’m not sure I’ve got much more to add.

    If you are going to take the unprecedented and high risk step of removing a PM a few months short of an election you had better do it as quickly and cleanly as possible.

    That’s at the heart of my problems with this, I guess.

    If we accept, for the sake of argument, that there were valid reasons for removing Rudd, I’m still left somewhat puzzled as to why it had to be done by last Thursday, aside from the fact that he was to leave for the G20 on Friday, and caucus wouldn’t normally meet during the winter parliamentary recess.

    All the people who had it in mind to remove him presumably sat mute in the normal caucus meeting on Tuesday, which everyone who was pushing the leadership challenge line correctly assumed would have been the appropriate time to bring on a spill, which could then have been decided later in the week.

    It strikes me that the actual timing was calculated to achieve the sort of dynamic I’ve talked about, depriving people of a chance to reflect and consider alternatives. We also have to remember that Peter Garrett and two other members of caucus were absent, and it was impossible to have their vote count.

  536. Mark

    @263 – Su, perhaps we’re just going to have to agree to interpret the events differently. I tried to set out my reasons in the post and in subsequent comments, and I’m not sure I’ve got much more to add.

    If you are going to take the unprecedented and high risk step of removing a PM a few months short of an election you had better do it as quickly and cleanly as possible.

    That’s at the heart of my problems with this, I guess.

    If we accept, for the sake of argument, that there were valid reasons for removing Rudd, I’m still left somewhat puzzled as to why it had to be done by last Thursday, aside from the fact that he was to leave for the G20 on Friday, and caucus wouldn’t normally meet during the winter parliamentary recess.

    All the people who had it in mind to remove him presumably sat mute in the normal caucus meeting on Tuesday, which everyone who was pushing the leadership challenge line correctly assumed would have been the appropriate time to bring on a spill, which could then have been decided later in the week.

    It strikes me that the actual timing was calculated to achieve the sort of dynamic I’ve talked about, depriving people of a chance to reflect and consider alternatives. We also have to remember that Peter Garrett and two other members of caucus were absent, and it was impossible to have their vote count.

  537. Mark

    I should add that I think the story about Alister Jordan phoning around cannot have really been the pretext. Again it’s pretty clear that Shorten had been working on this for some weeks. And I’ve noted that it’s not unusual, or a hanging offence I’d have thought, for staffers to be involved in taking soundings within caucus.

  538. Mark

    I should add that I think the story about Alister Jordan phoning around cannot have really been the pretext. Again it’s pretty clear that Shorten had been working on this for some weeks. And I’ve noted that it’s not unusual, or a hanging offence I’d have thought, for staffers to be involved in taking soundings within caucus.

  539. Mark

    @266 – sorry, Sam, didn’t see that comment before.

    I’ll just reiterate that I don’t think it would have been unreasonable to indicate a desire to have a challenge, or to have moved a spill motion, at Tuesday’s caucus, and have it decided by Thursday or Friday. If the ALP couldn’t survive three or four days of debate and discussion on the leadership, then it must be a more fragile beast than many are assuming.

  540. Mark

    @266 – sorry, Sam, didn’t see that comment before.

    I’ll just reiterate that I don’t think it would have been unreasonable to indicate a desire to have a challenge, or to have moved a spill motion, at Tuesday’s caucus, and have it decided by Thursday or Friday. If the ALP couldn’t survive three or four days of debate and discussion on the leadership, then it must be a more fragile beast than many are assuming.

  541. Cybele

    “I see it as pitching much more to the tree-huggers than to the xenophobes, but with a fair amount of middle-of-the-road economic pragmatism thrown in for the centre. Pretty perfectly pitched, actually.

    Depends on your perspective, doesn’t it.

    And while I’ve been known to hug trees, and much else, such a lazy and insulting use of this right-wing stereotype in this context says more about your consciousness than much else.

  542. Cybele

    “I see it as pitching much more to the tree-huggers than to the xenophobes, but with a fair amount of middle-of-the-road economic pragmatism thrown in for the centre. Pretty perfectly pitched, actually.

    Depends on your perspective, doesn’t it.

    And while I’ve been known to hug trees, and much else, such a lazy and insulting use of this right-wing stereotype in this context says more about your consciousness than much else.

  543. josh

    Since we’re now talking seriously about the timing question, I’ll add a few comments:

    1. I really think it was Thursday or never – you can’t realistically recall caucus during the winter recess. Even if you did, that’s a week of “Labor Spill” front page stories with leaks and sh*t flying everywhere until the deed is done. Doing that no more than 3 months before an election would surely be suicidal.

    2. It’s possible that Mark is right, that Shorten et al were cunning enough to leave it to the last second and use the ‘disunity is death’ as an ironic weapon against Rudd. After all, ALP machine men do this sort of thing quite well (sadly). This would suggest they are even smarter than we thought, at least within this specialist line of work.

    3. The other possibility, suggested by those in the MSM on the Shorten/Arbib news drip, is that on Tuesday there was no momentum for them to leverage. They needed a trigger, and were able to use Jordan’s canvassing as their pretext to go for it. I don’t think this can be ruled out (given nothing happened on Tuesday, not even a murmur in caucus). Maybe Gillard really was cheesed off for some reason. I doubt we will ever really know!

  544. josh

    Since we’re now talking seriously about the timing question, I’ll add a few comments:

    1. I really think it was Thursday or never – you can’t realistically recall caucus during the winter recess. Even if you did, that’s a week of “Labor Spill” front page stories with leaks and sh*t flying everywhere until the deed is done. Doing that no more than 3 months before an election would surely be suicidal.

    2. It’s possible that Mark is right, that Shorten et al were cunning enough to leave it to the last second and use the ‘disunity is death’ as an ironic weapon against Rudd. After all, ALP machine men do this sort of thing quite well (sadly). This would suggest they are even smarter than we thought, at least within this specialist line of work.

    3. The other possibility, suggested by those in the MSM on the Shorten/Arbib news drip, is that on Tuesday there was no momentum for them to leverage. They needed a trigger, and were able to use Jordan’s canvassing as their pretext to go for it. I don’t think this can be ruled out (given nothing happened on Tuesday, not even a murmur in caucus). Maybe Gillard really was cheesed off for some reason. I doubt we will ever really know!

  545. Mark

    josh, I think 3 is plausible. I don’t know if the reports that Gillard was angered by it are true, but I think we do know that she met Rudd before QT and then a meeting was scheduled for the evening.

    I think the real significance is that the story was by Hartcher, and he’s been Rudd’s leak of choice in the media. That suggests to me that Rudd must have seen it coming in some way or other, and tried to quash it through that story. Or someone in his office, more likely.

    But it’s also pretty clear that it all didn’t suddenly erupt out of nowhere just because that story was published, or because Jordan had been making phone calls. So it might have been the trigger, but it seems well established that the plotters had been looking for an opportunity for some time.

    The really interesting question is why Gillard agreed to pull the trigger. I suspect we won’t know the answer to that for a long time, if ever.

  546. Mark

    josh, I think 3 is plausible. I don’t know if the reports that Gillard was angered by it are true, but I think we do know that she met Rudd before QT and then a meeting was scheduled for the evening.

    I think the real significance is that the story was by Hartcher, and he’s been Rudd’s leak of choice in the media. That suggests to me that Rudd must have seen it coming in some way or other, and tried to quash it through that story. Or someone in his office, more likely.

    But it’s also pretty clear that it all didn’t suddenly erupt out of nowhere just because that story was published, or because Jordan had been making phone calls. So it might have been the trigger, but it seems well established that the plotters had been looking for an opportunity for some time.

    The really interesting question is why Gillard agreed to pull the trigger. I suspect we won’t know the answer to that for a long time, if ever.

  547. Katz

    If Gillard had not consented to stand against Rudd, would this challenge have happened at all?

    If no, then the final piece did not fall into place until very late in the story.

    If yes, then who was/were Gillard’s alternate(s)?

  548. Katz

    If Gillard had not consented to stand against Rudd, would this challenge have happened at all?

    If no, then the final piece did not fall into place until very late in the story.

    If yes, then who was/were Gillard’s alternate(s)?

  549. Mark

    I hasten to add that I think it would have been more honourable for the plotters to canvass their concerns openly in caucus on Tuesday.

    One of the things that stinks for me is that the argument employed against Rudd that he was not consultative (which appears to be true) was used by people who went to great lengths to disguise what they were doing and their intentions from their colleagues until the right moment. That’s also one of the reasons why I think planting the stories in the press, and creating the atmosphere of crisis, was a very underhand mode of operating.

    I suppose one would not expect anything else, but to see Graham Richardson lauding them as “Labor heroes” in today’s papers is pretty repulsive. He’d do the ALP a very big favour if he shut the frakk up for a very long time.

  550. Mark

    I hasten to add that I think it would have been more honourable for the plotters to canvass their concerns openly in caucus on Tuesday.

    One of the things that stinks for me is that the argument employed against Rudd that he was not consultative (which appears to be true) was used by people who went to great lengths to disguise what they were doing and their intentions from their colleagues until the right moment. That’s also one of the reasons why I think planting the stories in the press, and creating the atmosphere of crisis, was a very underhand mode of operating.

    I suppose one would not expect anything else, but to see Graham Richardson lauding them as “Labor heroes” in today’s papers is pretty repulsive. He’d do the ALP a very big favour if he shut the frakk up for a very long time.

  551. Mark

    @274 – I don’t believe it would have, Katz.

    The only other name canvassed has been Swan’s. And that was by Mark Latham, of whom one could say charitably that he is probably completely out of touch with the mood of caucus, since I suspect none of them have talked to him for a long while.

    I don’t believe anyone would see Swan as a plausible leader at this time.

    Tanner might have led the party, but he’s very much not on the same team as the plotters, and presumably was never approached, as we know he had signalled his intention to leave politics privately some time ago.

    The only other option would be a ‘Kevin Andrews’ stalking horse style of candidate, I guess.

  552. Mark

    @274 – I don’t believe it would have, Katz.

    The only other name canvassed has been Swan’s. And that was by Mark Latham, of whom one could say charitably that he is probably completely out of touch with the mood of caucus, since I suspect none of them have talked to him for a long while.

    I don’t believe anyone would see Swan as a plausible leader at this time.

    Tanner might have led the party, but he’s very much not on the same team as the plotters, and presumably was never approached, as we know he had signalled his intention to leave politics privately some time ago.

    The only other option would be a ‘Kevin Andrews’ stalking horse style of candidate, I guess.

  553. Mark

    To clarify, yes, I think Gillard’s consent was necessary for it to occur.

    Reflecting on it for a while, running someone unlikely to win would create a much more fluid situation. One can think of Heseltine being favoured to replace Thatcher, and Major coming out of the other end. Or Abbott becoming leader instead of Hockey when Turnbull was challenged.

    My other point is that at least some members of the Ministry seem to have been saying that if they’d been effectively consulted, they would have put an argument that a challenge should not take place, and that the risk was too great.

  554. Mark

    To clarify, yes, I think Gillard’s consent was necessary for it to occur.

    Reflecting on it for a while, running someone unlikely to win would create a much more fluid situation. One can think of Heseltine being favoured to replace Thatcher, and Major coming out of the other end. Or Abbott becoming leader instead of Hockey when Turnbull was challenged.

    My other point is that at least some members of the Ministry seem to have been saying that if they’d been effectively consulted, they would have put an argument that a challenge should not take place, and that the risk was too great.

  555. Aleisha

    Mark @277

    One of the things that stinks for me is that the argument employed against Rudd that he was not consultative (which appears to be true) was used by people who went to great lengths to disguise what they were doing and their intentions from their colleagues until the right moment. That’s also one of the reasons why I think planting the stories in the press, and creating the atmosphere of crisis, was a very underhand mode of operating.

    This point should be highlighted for everyone to really understand, especially the detractors here. The implications of the actions of those few men who did this as indeed not consultative, exactly that which had been one of the criticisms of Rudd (yet his non-consultation was out in the open as far as I am aware) and in fact, they had been done so furtively without good measure, shows such hypocrisy, that it makes you wonder what were the real reasons behind the coup. Was it sour grapes? Vindictiveness? Payback? Or all of that and more? Politics is a dirty business at the best of times, but this went far beyond that.

    Mark @277

    My other point is that at least some members of the Ministry seem to have been saying that if they’d been effectively consulted, they would have put an argument that a challenge should not take place, and that the risk was too great.

    Yes exactly.

    Tigtog, Cybele – yes, while I understand the ramifications and implicit reasons for the reversal on the ‘big australia’ policy, I find offence when it is being touted as one of the Labor policies aimed at the Labor heartland, to bring back their voters into the fold. Umm, as far as I knew, most Labor supporters tended to be blue collar workers and immigrants (althought I dont have the exact figures at hand, historically, these have been more inclined to be Labor supporters). So that statement released just re-writes the truth and is very much what Howard used to do when he was PM when he wanted to justify the many backflips he made during pre-election, when he promised so much and yet delivered so litte and in fact delivered policies which he said he would “never, ever” bring about.

    Yes, Gillard was on board with that policy and every other one of Rudds, so you can argue that she is now indeed being a liar, pretending to approve and support them before but now she is showing that she did not. Or you can argue that while Gillard did support those Rudd policies of before, she may have expressed her reservations in private and publicly supported them, but now that she has the opportunity to do differently, she does. I tend to think it was more of a case of the former rather than the latter, given the way she got into power.

  556. Aleisha

    Mark @277

    One of the things that stinks for me is that the argument employed against Rudd that he was not consultative (which appears to be true) was used by people who went to great lengths to disguise what they were doing and their intentions from their colleagues until the right moment. That’s also one of the reasons why I think planting the stories in the press, and creating the atmosphere of crisis, was a very underhand mode of operating.

    This point should be highlighted for everyone to really understand, especially the detractors here. The implications of the actions of those few men who did this as indeed not consultative, exactly that which had been one of the criticisms of Rudd (yet his non-consultation was out in the open as far as I am aware) and in fact, they had been done so furtively without good measure, shows such hypocrisy, that it makes you wonder what were the real reasons behind the coup. Was it sour grapes? Vindictiveness? Payback? Or all of that and more? Politics is a dirty business at the best of times, but this went far beyond that.

    Mark @277

    My other point is that at least some members of the Ministry seem to have been saying that if they’d been effectively consulted, they would have put an argument that a challenge should not take place, and that the risk was too great.

    Yes exactly.

    Tigtog, Cybele – yes, while I understand the ramifications and implicit reasons for the reversal on the ‘big australia’ policy, I find offence when it is being touted as one of the Labor policies aimed at the Labor heartland, to bring back their voters into the fold. Umm, as far as I knew, most Labor supporters tended to be blue collar workers and immigrants (althought I dont have the exact figures at hand, historically, these have been more inclined to be Labor supporters). So that statement released just re-writes the truth and is very much what Howard used to do when he was PM when he wanted to justify the many backflips he made during pre-election, when he promised so much and yet delivered so litte and in fact delivered policies which he said he would “never, ever” bring about.

    Yes, Gillard was on board with that policy and every other one of Rudds, so you can argue that she is now indeed being a liar, pretending to approve and support them before but now she is showing that she did not. Or you can argue that while Gillard did support those Rudd policies of before, she may have expressed her reservations in private and publicly supported them, but now that she has the opportunity to do differently, she does. I tend to think it was more of a case of the former rather than the latter, given the way she got into power.

  557. Aleisha

    The first quote came from Mark @275 – I copied and pasted and forgot to amend!

  558. Aleisha

    The first quote came from Mark @275 – I copied and pasted and forgot to amend!

  559. Aleisha

    I also think this sudden and very overt reversal on the ‘Big Australia’ policy is aimed to encourage debate, put it on the front page of the newspapers and deflect away from how Gillard ascended to the top spot, because obviously the policy makers know that this coup business was distasteful and they need to distance Gillard away from it all, so that she stands a chance of election as the next PM. So what do they do? Discuss a policy that has very emotional undertones, which many people are very passionate about, especially since it is well known that there are a few racists here in Australia (see Pauline Hanson’s party). Just scare-mongering really. Very strategic. But awful when you can see straight through the reasons why it was released now.

  560. Aleisha

    I also think this sudden and very overt reversal on the ‘Big Australia’ policy is aimed to encourage debate, put it on the front page of the newspapers and deflect away from how Gillard ascended to the top spot, because obviously the policy makers know that this coup business was distasteful and they need to distance Gillard away from it all, so that she stands a chance of election as the next PM. So what do they do? Discuss a policy that has very emotional undertones, which many people are very passionate about, especially since it is well known that there are a few racists here in Australia (see Pauline Hanson’s party). Just scare-mongering really. Very strategic. But awful when you can see straight through the reasons why it was released now.

  561. Katz

    Mark:

    To clarify, yes, I think Gillard’s consent was necessary for it to occur.

    So you believe that Gillard did not tell the truth about when she became aware of a challenge to Rudd?

  562. Katz

    Mark:

    To clarify, yes, I think Gillard’s consent was necessary for it to occur.

    So you believe that Gillard did not tell the truth about when she became aware of a challenge to Rudd?

  563. adrian

    One of the best explanations of the reasons behind this coup is from The Piping Shrike:

    Twelve months ago, the government had two excellent weapons against the Liberal party; Kevin Rudd and Julia Gillard. In the last few weeks the ALP has helped destroy one and damage the other. The Liberals must be laughing.

    As I have said before this is all about certain factional leaders re-asserting their power, not about winning elections.

  564. adrian

    One of the best explanations of the reasons behind this coup is from The Piping Shrike:

    Twelve months ago, the government had two excellent weapons against the Liberal party; Kevin Rudd and Julia Gillard. In the last few weeks the ALP has helped destroy one and damage the other. The Liberals must be laughing.

    As I have said before this is all about certain factional leaders re-asserting their power, not about winning elections.

  565. Mark

    @281 – Katz, I haven’t been over her remarks with a fine toothed comb.

    You might care to let me know what you understand by what she’s saying, and I’d appreciate a link.

    It all depends on how you define “challenge”.

    It’s clear to me that Shorten had met with Gillard before last week to urge her to challenge, and had made claims about numbers he could deliver.

    We know that Gillard requested a contest during her meeting on Wednesday night, because Rudd told us so on Wednesday night. Had she not so requested, and in the absence of a request from anyone else, Rudd’s options under the caucus rules were to call a meeting himself and declare the leadership vacant or to call a meeting and see if anyone was prepared to move a spill motion. In effect, the first course is what he took, but only because Gillard had requested him to.

    It goes back to what I’ve been saying. What occured differs from the usual pattern of a Labor leadership challenge.

  566. Mark

    @281 – Katz, I haven’t been over her remarks with a fine toothed comb.

    You might care to let me know what you understand by what she’s saying, and I’d appreciate a link.

    It all depends on how you define “challenge”.

    It’s clear to me that Shorten had met with Gillard before last week to urge her to challenge, and had made claims about numbers he could deliver.

    We know that Gillard requested a contest during her meeting on Wednesday night, because Rudd told us so on Wednesday night. Had she not so requested, and in the absence of a request from anyone else, Rudd’s options under the caucus rules were to call a meeting himself and declare the leadership vacant or to call a meeting and see if anyone was prepared to move a spill motion. In effect, the first course is what he took, but only because Gillard had requested him to.

    It goes back to what I’ve been saying. What occured differs from the usual pattern of a Labor leadership challenge.

  567. Lefty E

    “As I have said before this is all about certain factional leaders re-asserting their power, not about winning elections.”

    Yep – all looks rosy now, but if the coming negotiations with mining co’s turn into the same old stoush (likely, in the asbsence of a complete backflip by Gillard) the right noises about climate change are not made – then all we’ll have left is Gillards (very real) charm, and a very damaging episode in the recent past to bandage.

    Fortunately, Tony’s unelectability remains the true constant – which to me, highlights the internal nature of all this – and perhaps, the unnecessary nature of it.

    Whcih reminds me – Tones, the only scalp in your kit is Turnbull’s. Rudd’s is in Sussex St mate.

  568. Lefty E

    “As I have said before this is all about certain factional leaders re-asserting their power, not about winning elections.”

    Yep – all looks rosy now, but if the coming negotiations with mining co’s turn into the same old stoush (likely, in the asbsence of a complete backflip by Gillard) the right noises about climate change are not made – then all we’ll have left is Gillards (very real) charm, and a very damaging episode in the recent past to bandage.

    Fortunately, Tony’s unelectability remains the true constant – which to me, highlights the internal nature of all this – and perhaps, the unnecessary nature of it.

    Whcih reminds me – Tones, the only scalp in your kit is Turnbull’s. Rudd’s is in Sussex St mate.

  569. Aleisha

    Lefty E @284 – Abbott couldnt make up his mind about who took Rudd’s scalp in his speech to his faithful yesterday. He first said he and they helped to get it, then he suggested it was Julia Gillard who took Rudd’s scalp (and that I think, was closer to him being honest about it).

    Adrian @282 – thanks for providing the link to that article. Interesting read!

  570. Aleisha

    Lefty E @284 – Abbott couldnt make up his mind about who took Rudd’s scalp in his speech to his faithful yesterday. He first said he and they helped to get it, then he suggested it was Julia Gillard who took Rudd’s scalp (and that I think, was closer to him being honest about it).

    Adrian @282 – thanks for providing the link to that article. Interesting read!

  571. tigtog

    @ Cybele

    And while I’ve been known to hug trees, and much else, such a lazy and insulting use of this right-wing stereotype in this context says more about your consciousness than much else.

    You mistake me. I strongly identify as a tree-hugger myself.

  572. tigtog

    @ Cybele

    And while I’ve been known to hug trees, and much else, such a lazy and insulting use of this right-wing stereotype in this context says more about your consciousness than much else.

    You mistake me. I strongly identify as a tree-hugger myself.

  573. Ken Lovell

    Fine @ 219: ‘ But I’m also excited that we have a PM who’s a single, childless aetheist woman.’

    The fact that anyone regards such irrelevant characteristics as ‘exciting’ is a telling commentary on the mentality of some Gillard supporters. As are the observations about Rudd’s personal qualities in other comments.

    For many people – even Serious Thinkers such as Fine and others who comment here regularly – politics has obviously become an extension of Facebook and Big Brother; a medium of entertainment where you support the person who is sexy or quirky or exciting. Gillard won a debate on TV with Kerry O