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158 responses to “Rudd v. Gillard: Gillard's communication problem”

  1. Corin

    Mark, play the issues not the Australian! You’re just bitter because you think this is a Murdoch coupt. Rudd would be leader for as long as polls are good. Rudd is finished. He’s got no credibility post ETS. It doesn’t matter than Gillard agreed. The PM carries responsibility and only change at the top can see them sort out policy problems. BTW – the green preference flows are not as they were in 2007 and so the Labor ‘lead’ in some polls is illusory. This is not about polling though. It’s about the next 5 to 10 years. Labor needs vision. It has a postage stamp vision at the moment. Don’t you see – Rudd is a values free zone.

  2. Corin

    Mark, play the issues not the Australian! You’re just bitter because you think this is a Murdoch coupt. Rudd would be leader for as long as polls are good. Rudd is finished. He’s got no credibility post ETS. It doesn’t matter than Gillard agreed. The PM carries responsibility and only change at the top can see them sort out policy problems. BTW – the green preference flows are not as they were in 2007 and so the Labor ‘lead’ in some polls is illusory. This is not about polling though. It’s about the next 5 to 10 years. Labor needs vision. It has a postage stamp vision at the moment. Don’t you see – Rudd is a values free zone.

  3. tssk

    The media won’t give Gillard a break beyond her press conference. By 7pm the news will start with comment from the Honrable opp leader talking about how Kevin Rudd was a good man betrayed by the NSW right wing factions and then it will be all on.

    It was sad to see Rudd crucified. Sadder still to see Julia face the same fate.

    Who’d be a pollie eh?

  4. tssk

    The media won’t give Gillard a break beyond her press conference. By 7pm the news will start with comment from the Honrable opp leader talking about how Kevin Rudd was a good man betrayed by the NSW right wing factions and then it will be all on.

    It was sad to see Rudd crucified. Sadder still to see Julia face the same fate.

    Who’d be a pollie eh?

  5. Mark

    @1 – So, do please explain to me, Corin, how Gillard and the ALP are supposed to explain the challenge to voters, not to those like you and me who follow the ins and outs closely?

  6. Mark

    @1 – So, do please explain to me, Corin, how Gillard and the ALP are supposed to explain the challenge to voters, not to those like you and me who follow the ins and outs closely?

  7. Corin

    VISION. Also “She” will be something in itself! Not quite Obama but pretty good for Oz.

    The Govt is just visionless. Name some values they’ve articulated recently. Aussies want vision.

  8. Corin

    VISION. Also “She” will be something in itself! Not quite Obama but pretty good for Oz.

    The Govt is just visionless. Name some values they’ve articulated recently. Aussies want vision.

  9. Lefty E

    That might all be true Corin – but Mark’s point remains. This will have to be accounted for.

    So far theyve got a story that *literally no one* will find anything but byzantine and repulsive (viz ‘some boring factional shit with negative popular care factor’). As for values, please tell us how you expect the “vision” to alter now the NSW right has launched a palace coup?

    I hope you’re right. But lets be frank: aside from Julia herself, it isnt a promising crew.

  10. Lefty E

    That might all be true Corin – but Mark’s point remains. This will have to be accounted for.

    So far theyve got a story that *literally no one* will find anything but byzantine and repulsive (viz ‘some boring factional shit with negative popular care factor’). As for values, please tell us how you expect the “vision” to alter now the NSW right has launched a palace coup?

    I hope you’re right. But lets be frank: aside from Julia herself, it isnt a promising crew.

  11. Corin

    You watch … Gillard will get a run. She’s also seen as tough, so the idea of knifing Rudd is an act that people will respect and fear. Keating was never hated for knifing Hawke, he was hated for other reasons. People respected him for getting his hands bloody!

  12. Corin

    You watch … Gillard will get a run. She’s also seen as tough, so the idea of knifing Rudd is an act that people will respect and fear. Keating was never hated for knifing Hawke, he was hated for other reasons. People respected him for getting his hands bloody!

  13. Mark

    @6 – Keating made no secret of the fact that he had genuine policy differences with Hawke. He won from the backbench. Hawke had been PM for 3 terms.

  14. Mark

    @6 – Keating made no secret of the fact that he had genuine policy differences with Hawke. He won from the backbench. Hawke had been PM for 3 terms.

  15. Corin

    Mark, you’re just annoyed that the Oz got Rudd! Even though Rudd got Rudd. Accept it, he’s been a terrible disappointment for almost everyone, GFC aside.

  16. Corin

    Mark, you’re just annoyed that the Oz got Rudd! Even though Rudd got Rudd. Accept it, he’s been a terrible disappointment for almost everyone, GFC aside.

  17. Lefty E

    He didnt do it a few months before the 1984 election though, Corin.

    I would remind folks of Martin B’s observation: polls had Rudd on track for one of the largest 2nd term victories in the last 50 years. Way ahead of Howard’s miserable effort in 1998.

    But sure – knife away. What could go wrong? After all, the PM is all about who the parliamentary party is happy with. They have no personal mandate.

    And cabinet is accountable to the legislature.
    And the senate is a states’ house.

  18. Lefty E

    He didnt do it a few months before the 1984 election though, Corin.

    I would remind folks of Martin B’s observation: polls had Rudd on track for one of the largest 2nd term victories in the last 50 years. Way ahead of Howard’s miserable effort in 1998.

    But sure – knife away. What could go wrong? After all, the PM is all about who the parliamentary party is happy with. They have no personal mandate.

    And cabinet is accountable to the legislature.
    And the senate is a states’ house.

  19. Corin

    Lefty E, Rudd has Labor on 35%! Preference flows from Greens looking problematic.

  20. Corin

    Lefty E, Rudd has Labor on 35%! Preference flows from Greens looking problematic.

  21. Mark

    @10 – as I said in the post, beware of a “static assessment of the political situation.”

  22. Mark

    @10 – as I said in the post, beware of a “static assessment of the political situation.”

  23. skibum

    I like Julia but (and it’s a big but) has she ever come out in force and ‘communicated’ her personal support for the RSPT or going back further the ETS? I sincerely cannot remember her doing so. Would her lack of strong, visible support for these intiatives suggest that the movements of the last 24hrs come as no surprise? If she is of the tactical calibre that is often suggested, then it’s unlikely that she was dragged into this unwillingly.

  24. skibum

    I like Julia but (and it’s a big but) has she ever come out in force and ‘communicated’ her personal support for the RSPT or going back further the ETS? I sincerely cannot remember her doing so. Would her lack of strong, visible support for these intiatives suggest that the movements of the last 24hrs come as no surprise? If she is of the tactical calibre that is often suggested, then it’s unlikely that she was dragged into this unwillingly.

  25. Lefty E

    They’ll remain problematic too Corin, unless a major enviro policy is restored.

    Any danger of that being part of the new “vision”? I’m hopeful – but doubtful.

    I wish her well. But I doubt the Green voters will be back any time soon. Noises about asylum seekers dont promise much either.

    Rudd at least abolished TPVs – Gillard was backflipping with Beazer in ’01.

    Im far from convinced the transition from Rudd to Gillard will affect the Green vote.

  26. Lefty E

    They’ll remain problematic too Corin, unless a major enviro policy is restored.

    Any danger of that being part of the new “vision”? I’m hopeful – but doubtful.

    I wish her well. But I doubt the Green voters will be back any time soon. Noises about asylum seekers dont promise much either.

    Rudd at least abolished TPVs – Gillard was backflipping with Beazer in ’01.

    Im far from convinced the transition from Rudd to Gillard will affect the Green vote.

  27. Mark

    @12 – the last thing we need is another round of ‘clearing the decks’. Dump the RSPT, or water it down to meaninglessness, back away from anything on climate change – to give the ‘message clear air’. I really hope that’s not what’s in the offing, but given some of those supporting Gillard, I’m afraid that it might be.

  28. Mark

    @12 – the last thing we need is another round of ‘clearing the decks’. Dump the RSPT, or water it down to meaninglessness, back away from anything on climate change – to give the ‘message clear air’. I really hope that’s not what’s in the offing, but given some of those supporting Gillard, I’m afraid that it might be.

  29. Jacques de Molay

    “If she is of the tactical calibre that is often suggested, then it’s unlikely that she was dragged into this unwillingly.”

    Supposedly she was. She didn’t knife Rudd the Vic Right & SA Right did.

  30. Jacques de Molay

    “If she is of the tactical calibre that is often suggested, then it’s unlikely that she was dragged into this unwillingly.”

    Supposedly she was. She didn’t knife Rudd the Vic Right & SA Right did.

  31. Corin

    It is easier for Gillard to backflip on ETS than Rudd. I also think she’ll neghotiate a settlement with miners but with a rent tax at the core. They need ETS politics not RSPT as it is.

  32. Corin

    It is easier for Gillard to backflip on ETS than Rudd. I also think she’ll neghotiate a settlement with miners but with a rent tax at the core. They need ETS politics not RSPT as it is.

  33. skibum

    Corin, I agree she will do both ASAP. Given her absence from both debates, I think that’s been the plan hatched for a while now. Julia’s a trained lawyer – it’s important to look at at not just what she has said, but what she hasn’t said up til now on these issues. Not so innocent me thinks…

  34. skibum

    Corin, I agree she will do both ASAP. Given her absence from both debates, I think that’s been the plan hatched for a while now. Julia’s a trained lawyer – it’s important to look at at not just what she has said, but what she hasn’t said up til now on these issues. Not so innocent me thinks…

  35. tigtog

    Here’s one line that is obviously going to be floated, courtesy of the Oz:

    Her talents made people take notice. Senior public servants in Canberra found life easier when she was running the country.

    After two years battling to get answers out of the Prime Minister’s office, some departmental chiefs took to holding on to government briefs until Kevin Rudd was on holiday.

    They were dismayed when criticism of the Prime Minister’s overseas travel drove him to cut back on trips.

    So, Julia’s capable and Kevin wasn’t. She’ll get things done where he was either waffling or being too much of a control freak. etc etc

    I’m not entirely convinced that this line will work on the voters as an explanation, no matter how much of it might be true.

  36. tigtog

    Here’s one line that is obviously going to be floated, courtesy of the Oz:

    Her talents made people take notice. Senior public servants in Canberra found life easier when she was running the country.

    After two years battling to get answers out of the Prime Minister’s office, some departmental chiefs took to holding on to government briefs until Kevin Rudd was on holiday.

    They were dismayed when criticism of the Prime Minister’s overseas travel drove him to cut back on trips.

    So, Julia’s capable and Kevin wasn’t. She’ll get things done where he was either waffling or being too much of a control freak. etc etc

    I’m not entirely convinced that this line will work on the voters as an explanation, no matter how much of it might be true.

  37. Corin

    Why are you all playing Kevin the victim? Julia’s the rampaging lion?

    Rudd’s support has ebbed away through incompetence and values-free conduct. No one can hold the trust of public when they don’t communicate their values into the living rooms and talk back stations. Julia can do this.

    BTW- she is far more competent in meeting, a great chair.

  38. Corin

    Why are you all playing Kevin the victim? Julia’s the rampaging lion?

    Rudd’s support has ebbed away through incompetence and values-free conduct. No one can hold the trust of public when they don’t communicate their values into the living rooms and talk back stations. Julia can do this.

    BTW- she is far more competent in meeting, a great chair.

  39. Jacques de Molay

    I wouldn’t be surprised if Rudd even resigns before the leadership ballot tomorrow.

  40. Jacques de Molay

    I wouldn’t be surprised if Rudd even resigns before the leadership ballot tomorrow.

  41. tigtog

    Corin, don’t mistake concern for how this looks to non-wonks as our own personal views of either person.

    Nobody here (other than our resident poke-the-lefties jokers) wants Tony Abbott to win. Some of us think that unless the message is handled very carefully indeed about this leadership spill then a whole slew of anti-Labor arguments are likely to be handed to the LibNat spin machine on a platter, and that concerns us.

    So how about you actually look at that instead of being upset with people for being pragmatic here?

  42. tigtog

    Corin, don’t mistake concern for how this looks to non-wonks as our own personal views of either person.

    Nobody here (other than our resident poke-the-lefties jokers) wants Tony Abbott to win. Some of us think that unless the message is handled very carefully indeed about this leadership spill then a whole slew of anti-Labor arguments are likely to be handed to the LibNat spin machine on a platter, and that concerns us.

    So how about you actually look at that instead of being upset with people for being pragmatic here?

  43. James Wakefield

    I think the fact that the spill has come from the right, makes Ms. Gillard immune to the accusations of ruthlessness. If Kevin’s own faction doesn’t want him, then she is obliged to take the job. The general population already believe that Kevin Rudd is a micro-managing control freak, with an explosive temper. This isn’t back room deals for one faction to take on another, it is the right throwing out their man and handing power to the left, which really is quite extraordinary. This may well be the only opportunity Gillard gets, she should have our support.

  44. James Wakefield

    I think the fact that the spill has come from the right, makes Ms. Gillard immune to the accusations of ruthlessness. If Kevin’s own faction doesn’t want him, then she is obliged to take the job. The general population already believe that Kevin Rudd is a micro-managing control freak, with an explosive temper. This isn’t back room deals for one faction to take on another, it is the right throwing out their man and handing power to the left, which really is quite extraordinary. This may well be the only opportunity Gillard gets, she should have our support.

  45. hannah's dad

    Some numbers.

    http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/2010/06/21/essentia-report-leaders-leaders-leaders-edition/#more-8126

    Figures from the last ER poll. [Summary]

    “Do you think Kevin Rudd is the best person to lead the Labor Party to the next election or would the Labor Party have a better chance of winning the next election if they changed leaders?”

    KR best………..37
    Change leaders….40
    Dunno………….24

    Not good for KR.

    Results for the same question [Re LNP]for Abbott?

    TA best ……….29
    Change leaders….47
    Dunno………….24

    Oops, those results are worse.

    Better PM?

    Gillard ……50
    Abbott……..32
    Dunno………18

    Oops thats worse for Abbott.

    How about KR vs Gillard [JG]?

    KR ……36 [ALP voters 56]
    JG ……33 [ ” 30]
    Dunno …31 [ ” 14]

    Bit ambivalent.

    Better PM?
    KR ……46
    Abbott…39
    [From Newspoll.]

    ALP 2PP last 4 Newspolls.
    49
    50
    51
    52

  46. hannah's dad

    Some numbers.

    http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/2010/06/21/essentia-report-leaders-leaders-leaders-edition/#more-8126

    Figures from the last ER poll. [Summary]

    “Do you think Kevin Rudd is the best person to lead the Labor Party to the next election or would the Labor Party have a better chance of winning the next election if they changed leaders?”

    KR best………..37
    Change leaders….40
    Dunno………….24

    Not good for KR.

    Results for the same question [Re LNP]for Abbott?

    TA best ……….29
    Change leaders….47
    Dunno………….24

    Oops, those results are worse.

    Better PM?

    Gillard ……50
    Abbott……..32
    Dunno………18

    Oops thats worse for Abbott.

    How about KR vs Gillard [JG]?

    KR ……36 [ALP voters 56]
    JG ……33 [ ” 30]
    Dunno …31 [ ” 14]

    Bit ambivalent.

    Better PM?
    KR ……46
    Abbott…39
    [From Newspoll.]

    ALP 2PP last 4 Newspolls.
    49
    50
    51
    52

  47. Jack Strocchi

    Minchin’s Martyrdom Operation is about to claim its second Tower. Had Turnbull won the L/NP ETS vote then both Turnbull and Rudd would still be secure in their leadership.

    “All changed, changed utterly: A terrible beauty is born.”

  48. Jack Strocchi

    Minchin’s Martyrdom Operation is about to claim its second Tower. Had Turnbull won the L/NP ETS vote then both Turnbull and Rudd would still be secure in their leadership.

    “All changed, changed utterly: A terrible beauty is born.”

  49. paul walter

    # 18.
    Tig Tog, is the Australian’s rubbish in this case an example of what some have called “Concern Trolling”?
    As for thread topic, am still not caspable of comment, seems astounding?
    Am I Arthur Dent?

  50. paul walter

    # 18.
    Tig Tog, is the Australian’s rubbish in this case an example of what some have called “Concern Trolling”?
    As for thread topic, am still not caspable of comment, seems astounding?
    Am I Arthur Dent?

  51. ken n

    Insightful observations Mark.
    Not a great event in Australian politics.

  52. ken n

    Insightful observations Mark.
    Not a great event in Australian politics.

  53. tigtog

    @paul walter,

    The Oz line in the piece I quoted could be viewed that way. I guess.

    @Jack Strocchi

    Your link to “Minchin’s Martyrdom Operation” doesn’t work, and I couldn’t find anything using that phrase on a search of the blog.

  54. tigtog

    @paul walter,

    The Oz line in the piece I quoted could be viewed that way. I guess.

    @Jack Strocchi

    Your link to “Minchin’s Martyrdom Operation” doesn’t work, and I couldn’t find anything using that phrase on a search of the blog.

  55. MH

    I can’t agree with the analytical line that LP is taking here. This is not simply a News Ltd campaign driving down polls causing a panic attack by the “faceless men” of the party machine.

    Rudd built power through the media and the Canberra policy analysis scene and less through party mechanisms, so when the polls and the Canberrra wonks turned, he has had nothing to stand on. His personal political style has clearly alienated large numbers of the people he has come into contact with over many years. The Age is predicting a 40-70 defeat by Gillard, and such a huge margin speaks of a long-term failure to win loyalty and camaraderie.

  56. MH

    I can’t agree with the analytical line that LP is taking here. This is not simply a News Ltd campaign driving down polls causing a panic attack by the “faceless men” of the party machine.

    Rudd built power through the media and the Canberra policy analysis scene and less through party mechanisms, so when the polls and the Canberrra wonks turned, he has had nothing to stand on. His personal political style has clearly alienated large numbers of the people he has come into contact with over many years. The Age is predicting a 40-70 defeat by Gillard, and such a huge margin speaks of a long-term failure to win loyalty and camaraderie.

  57. Nickws

    Jesus Christ. The fucking federal caucus has less political strategic sense than the anonymous Leftwing commentators on a blog like this who have known for months now that replacing Rudd with Gillard is a complete frame up.

    I go away for one day and the wet dreams of every concern troll comes true.

    SkyNews is reporting that Gillard has the numbers—I didn’t have cable TV at the time of the 2007 APEC conference, so I have no idea if they reported the same thing about Brave Sir Peter in his ‘leadership challenge’.

    Mark, are you thinking a couple of contingencies ahead, like I am?

    I’m thinking if Rudd survives this, and wins reelection, he should bring Combet and/or McKew onto the frontbench as his designated successor material. This is assuming Julia and Swan have gone bad, which might still not necessarily be the case.

    Shorten? Fuck him. Liam said something here months ago about Shorten and Combet being the next generation of the leadership—which means I hope Combet is standing with Faulkner on the side of reason in this, because Shorten is dead to me if he’s doing this as a way of dumping the RSPT.

    This and the World Cup loss make me want to throw up all over those clowns at Canberra. Yeah, I also blame the pollies for us failing to get through to the next round in football.

    Corin, have you not considered the possibility this is all about dropping the RSPT? If that happens that will be a greater travesty than the dropping of the ETS, and your Goddess won’t fucking save us then.

    If Gillard as PM is all about going crash or crash through on both climate change and a miners windfall profits tax then I might reconsider what I’ve written here.

    If she thinks she can dump these policies from the election campaign and rely on her shear awesomeness as Teh Truest Progressive Icon then I’ve got news for her and her sycophants.

  58. Nickws

    Jesus Christ. The fucking federal caucus has less political strategic sense than the anonymous Leftwing commentators on a blog like this who have known for months now that replacing Rudd with Gillard is a complete frame up.

    I go away for one day and the wet dreams of every concern troll comes true.

    SkyNews is reporting that Gillard has the numbers—I didn’t have cable TV at the time of the 2007 APEC conference, so I have no idea if they reported the same thing about Brave Sir Peter in his ‘leadership challenge’.

    Mark, are you thinking a couple of contingencies ahead, like I am?

    I’m thinking if Rudd survives this, and wins reelection, he should bring Combet and/or McKew onto the frontbench as his designated successor material. This is assuming Julia and Swan have gone bad, which might still not necessarily be the case.

    Shorten? Fuck him. Liam said something here months ago about Shorten and Combet being the next generation of the leadership—which means I hope Combet is standing with Faulkner on the side of reason in this, because Shorten is dead to me if he’s doing this as a way of dumping the RSPT.

    This and the World Cup loss make me want to throw up all over those clowns at Canberra. Yeah, I also blame the pollies for us failing to get through to the next round in football.

    Corin, have you not considered the possibility this is all about dropping the RSPT? If that happens that will be a greater travesty than the dropping of the ETS, and your Goddess won’t fucking save us then.

    If Gillard as PM is all about going crash or crash through on both climate change and a miners windfall profits tax then I might reconsider what I’ve written here.

    If she thinks she can dump these policies from the election campaign and rely on her shear awesomeness as Teh Truest Progressive Icon then I’ve got news for her and her sycophants.

  59. Spana

    What a terrible outcome it will be if Gillard wins. An anti union, pro scab career driven politicians whose fingerprints are over every bad decision this government has made. If Gillard becomes PM I will be backing a coalition victory. I will neve, ever, ever vote for a party led by someone who advocates scab labour as Gillard did in the recent dispute with teachers.

    No surprise to see Paul Howes supporting her. He and her are both clear in their ruthless ambition. Gillard has demonstrated that treachery is alive and well and she will do nothing to stop her careerism.

    Gillard is the best reason I know to hope for a coalition victory. If people think Abbott is bad wait untill Gillard continues her attacks on unions.

  60. Spana

    What a terrible outcome it will be if Gillard wins. An anti union, pro scab career driven politicians whose fingerprints are over every bad decision this government has made. If Gillard becomes PM I will be backing a coalition victory. I will neve, ever, ever vote for a party led by someone who advocates scab labour as Gillard did in the recent dispute with teachers.

    No surprise to see Paul Howes supporting her. He and her are both clear in their ruthless ambition. Gillard has demonstrated that treachery is alive and well and she will do nothing to stop her careerism.

    Gillard is the best reason I know to hope for a coalition victory. If people think Abbott is bad wait untill Gillard continues her attacks on unions.

  61. Down and Out of Sài Gòn
  62. Down and Out of Sài Gòn
  63. tigtog

    It seems a lot of political advisors forget that although they know all the rules of the Westminster system and that by those rules a leadership contest like this is par for the course, that this is not how the average voter sees it at all. Only a few voters really think about the fact that the leader of the party they voted for could be rolled at any time by their fellow parliamentarians, and when it happens they often Do Not Like It.

  64. tigtog

    It seems a lot of political advisors forget that although they know all the rules of the Westminster system and that by those rules a leadership contest like this is par for the course, that this is not how the average voter sees it at all. Only a few voters really think about the fact that the leader of the party they voted for could be rolled at any time by their fellow parliamentarians, and when it happens they often Do Not Like It.

  65. Link

    The chances of Tony Abbott becoming PM at the next election should Gillard win the leadership spill have been much diminished. I stopped listening to Rudd eons ago, and my conversion to The Greens, was cemented with the release of the Defence White Paper which proved my fears about Rudd being a weasley, cowardly, anal retentive prick, the victim of schoolyard bullying, a supercillious dork now armed to the teeth. He is the perfect bureaucrat and woefully imperfect leader.

    Gillard vs Abbott is a fight worth watching. Abbott will be both delighted and worried about taking on Ms Gillard, they have each other’s meaasure. On with the show.

  66. Link

    The chances of Tony Abbott becoming PM at the next election should Gillard win the leadership spill have been much diminished. I stopped listening to Rudd eons ago, and my conversion to The Greens, was cemented with the release of the Defence White Paper which proved my fears about Rudd being a weasley, cowardly, anal retentive prick, the victim of schoolyard bullying, a supercillious dork now armed to the teeth. He is the perfect bureaucrat and woefully imperfect leader.

    Gillard vs Abbott is a fight worth watching. Abbott will be both delighted and worried about taking on Ms Gillard, they have each other’s meaasure. On with the show.

  67. Robert Merkel

    I think Jack’s point is that Turnbull toppling, Abbott installation as leader, and the Labor/Coalition deal on the ETS dumped, have led to a train of events that seems like it will result in the removal of Rudd.

    You might also argue that the ETS played a significant part in the downfall of Howard too, though Workchoices was a much bigger factor.

  68. Robert Merkel

    I think Jack’s point is that Turnbull toppling, Abbott installation as leader, and the Labor/Coalition deal on the ETS dumped, have led to a train of events that seems like it will result in the removal of Rudd.

    You might also argue that the ETS played a significant part in the downfall of Howard too, though Workchoices was a much bigger factor.

  69. nasking

    Mark,

    Having got a few hours sleep my anger & disappointment has lessened a wee bit…slightly.

    I don’t blame Julia Gillard. I don’t think she had any option.

    I blame Arbib & the NSW Right who I have never liked.

    Gillard would make a better PM than Tony Abbott.

    But it’s sad it had to happen this way. If it does.

    I have a heavy heart this morning. Having fought so hard for Ruddy…

    and been there 3 & 1/2 years ago on RTS blog fighting hard against the Beazley camp/supporters to bring him & Julia into the leadership roles.

    Poor Ruddy.

    Strange days indeed.

    N’

  70. nasking

    Mark,

    Having got a few hours sleep my anger & disappointment has lessened a wee bit…slightly.

    I don’t blame Julia Gillard. I don’t think she had any option.

    I blame Arbib & the NSW Right who I have never liked.

    Gillard would make a better PM than Tony Abbott.

    But it’s sad it had to happen this way. If it does.

    I have a heavy heart this morning. Having fought so hard for Ruddy…

    and been there 3 & 1/2 years ago on RTS blog fighting hard against the Beazley camp/supporters to bring him & Julia into the leadership roles.

    Poor Ruddy.

    Strange days indeed.

    N’

  71. Tyro Rex

    If we look at this in policy terms; what will Gillard actually do that’s any different to Rudd? Given that the SA and Vic right wing behind the initial putsch, the problem is there’s only one way for Gillard to go and that’s rightward on just about every issue.

    – ETS. well Gillard was part of the group who with Rudd dumped it in the first place.

    – RSPT – gary gray on the radio this morning singing the praises of GIllard so I reckon that’s gone too (“clearing the air” it will be called as Mark said). If so we may as well install the boards of BHP and RTZ as the government and be done with it.

    – No chance of Conroy’s internet filter being dropped (if it was it would be a relatively good thing in getting some of that green vote back).

    – Hospital plan will probably stay I’d imagine.

    I just don’t see any policy reasons to be enthusiastic and politically it just looks stupid. Yes Rudd has severe difficulty in selling his message but there’s no good message to sell in this schmozzle.

    I will point that while yesterday morning all the talk on ABC RN was government wins in policy areas this morning that’s completely different. We could have been selling Garrett’s big win at the IWC this morning.

    And tomorrow mocking the Australian for having a ridiculous media marrative but instead we’re dancing to its tune. Stupid, stupid, AWU, Vic and SA ALP go fuck yourselves.

  72. Tyro Rex

    If we look at this in policy terms; what will Gillard actually do that’s any different to Rudd? Given that the SA and Vic right wing behind the initial putsch, the problem is there’s only one way for Gillard to go and that’s rightward on just about every issue.

    – ETS. well Gillard was part of the group who with Rudd dumped it in the first place.

    – RSPT – gary gray on the radio this morning singing the praises of GIllard so I reckon that’s gone too (“clearing the air” it will be called as Mark said). If so we may as well install the boards of BHP and RTZ as the government and be done with it.

    – No chance of Conroy’s internet filter being dropped (if it was it would be a relatively good thing in getting some of that green vote back).

    – Hospital plan will probably stay I’d imagine.

    I just don’t see any policy reasons to be enthusiastic and politically it just looks stupid. Yes Rudd has severe difficulty in selling his message but there’s no good message to sell in this schmozzle.

    I will point that while yesterday morning all the talk on ABC RN was government wins in policy areas this morning that’s completely different. We could have been selling Garrett’s big win at the IWC this morning.

    And tomorrow mocking the Australian for having a ridiculous media marrative but instead we’re dancing to its tune. Stupid, stupid, AWU, Vic and SA ALP go fuck yourselves.

  73. Tyro Rex

    I will also point out I will not be helping on the campaign this year. The election will have to be delayed until October / November anyway and that’s when my thesis is due.

    I think there will be enormous damage to the ALP in QLD. Some SA and Vic right wingers may save their seats but I suspect that the damage is already done in QLD.

  74. Tyro Rex

    I will also point out I will not be helping on the campaign this year. The election will have to be delayed until October / November anyway and that’s when my thesis is due.

    I think there will be enormous damage to the ALP in QLD. Some SA and Vic right wingers may save their seats but I suspect that the damage is already done in QLD.

  75. adrian

    According to the ABC, mining shares in London rose on the news that Gillard was challenging.

    When she becomes PM expect the following:

    1. The party lurches to the right including harder lines on asylum seeker issues, abandonment or watering down of the mining tax.
    2. The very media groups that have been singing Gillard’s praises will go on the attack with a vengence after a decent interval of about 2 weeks.
    3. The coalition will win the next election with the Greens holding the balance of power in the Senate, but under intense media pressure will fold just as the Democrats did.
    4. The next Labor leader will have to get used to years in opposition.
    5. Expect coalition governments also in all states.

  76. adrian

    According to the ABC, mining shares in London rose on the news that Gillard was challenging.

    When she becomes PM expect the following:

    1. The party lurches to the right including harder lines on asylum seeker issues, abandonment or watering down of the mining tax.
    2. The very media groups that have been singing Gillard’s praises will go on the attack with a vengence after a decent interval of about 2 weeks.
    3. The coalition will win the next election with the Greens holding the balance of power in the Senate, but under intense media pressure will fold just as the Democrats did.
    4. The next Labor leader will have to get used to years in opposition.
    5. Expect coalition governments also in all states.

  77. Ken Lovell

    Gillard will repel a considerable number of people who were prepared to support a Rudd Government because it was (a) conservative and (b) run by a man. Her vocal delivery alone will cause tens of thousands of people to change their votes.

    The whole episode has proved in spades the ‘unions run the ALP’ line. Which is not a good look now that unions are a minority interest group representing mainly public servants. Labor has given the opposition a gift of staggering generosity and Howardism is likely to make a resurgent return to government, waiting eagerly for that Muslim in the White House to get kicked out so we can join once again in making the world safe from terrorists.

    Maybe Gillard hearts Israel. That seems to be Paul Howe’s over-riding political issue.

  78. Ken Lovell

    Gillard will repel a considerable number of people who were prepared to support a Rudd Government because it was (a) conservative and (b) run by a man. Her vocal delivery alone will cause tens of thousands of people to change their votes.

    The whole episode has proved in spades the ‘unions run the ALP’ line. Which is not a good look now that unions are a minority interest group representing mainly public servants. Labor has given the opposition a gift of staggering generosity and Howardism is likely to make a resurgent return to government, waiting eagerly for that Muslim in the White House to get kicked out so we can join once again in making the world safe from terrorists.

    Maybe Gillard hearts Israel. That seems to be Paul Howe’s over-riding political issue.

  79. johnboy

    i think we should get rid of rudd, he is not doing what he said in his speech to become prime-minister.

    i am oly 13 andi dont know much about politics but who would agree?

  80. johnboy

    i think we should get rid of rudd, he is not doing what he said in his speech to become prime-minister.

    i am oly 13 andi dont know much about politics but who would agree?

  81. Ian Harris

    For the ‘real’ events leading up to the change you need to go to my latest blogpost.www.theblowfly.com.au

  82. Ian Harris

    For the ‘real’ events leading up to the change you need to go to my latest blogpost.www.theblowfly.com.au

  83. Robert Merkel

    When Paul Howes was interviewed on Lateline last night, he was singing the praises of the RSPT, and bemoaning the inability of Rudd to sell it.

    I don’t know how much notice to take of that, though.

  84. Robert Merkel

    When Paul Howes was interviewed on Lateline last night, he was singing the praises of the RSPT, and bemoaning the inability of Rudd to sell it.

    I don’t know how much notice to take of that, though.

  85. Paul Norton

    The following comment is partly a consequence of my having resided in Sydney from 1983 to 1988.

    Considering who is behind Julia’s run for PM, and their motivations for supporting her, if she wins we can expect Labor’s campaign jingle at this year’s Federal election to run something like this:

    She’s good value
    She’ll see it through
    She’ll tell it true
    She’s good value.

  86. Paul Norton

    The following comment is partly a consequence of my having resided in Sydney from 1983 to 1988.

    Considering who is behind Julia’s run for PM, and their motivations for supporting her, if she wins we can expect Labor’s campaign jingle at this year’s Federal election to run something like this:

    She’s good value
    She’ll see it through
    She’ll tell it true
    She’s good value.

  87. Nickws

    Tyro Rex, Adrian, we are so fucked if that is the case with the RSPT.

    Oh, and a caveat—when I was drifting around the edges of ALP politics I was aligned with the Victorian Right, and during the Era Of Rudd I’ve always taken it for granted that culturally I am much closer to my fellow Melbournian Gillard than Kevin ’07.

    I consider myself to be pretty Whitlamite.

    But the party can’t just dump a solid leader like Rudd for the novelty of Gillard if all it does is embrace the Big End of Town over the one thing Kevin was a true progressive over.

    If it does… that’s how parties eventually die.
    Then bring on the fully proportional electoral system, so those of us with half a brain can contemplate whether or not to vote for the inevitable Eddie Macguire/Malcom Turnbull/Green Alliance in order to keep the tories out of power. Bastards couldn’t be worse than Labor factional bosses.

  88. Nickws

    Tyro Rex, Adrian, we are so fucked if that is the case with the RSPT.

    Oh, and a caveat—when I was drifting around the edges of ALP politics I was aligned with the Victorian Right, and during the Era Of Rudd I’ve always taken it for granted that culturally I am much closer to my fellow Melbournian Gillard than Kevin ’07.

    I consider myself to be pretty Whitlamite.

    But the party can’t just dump a solid leader like Rudd for the novelty of Gillard if all it does is embrace the Big End of Town over the one thing Kevin was a true progressive over.

    If it does… that’s how parties eventually die.
    Then bring on the fully proportional electoral system, so those of us with half a brain can contemplate whether or not to vote for the inevitable Eddie Macguire/Malcom Turnbull/Green Alliance in order to keep the tories out of power. Bastards couldn’t be worse than Labor factional bosses.

  89. JohnL

    If Julia Gillard wins (which I think is probable), she would do well to ignore the Right Wing and do the unexpected.
    That unexpected would be:
    1. Call a meeting with the Greens to discuss the ETS and the RSPT.
    2. Announce the RSPT remains a firm policy of the Government under her.
    3. Announce that she will go to the Governor-General and seek an immediate double dissolution on the basis of failure to pass the ETS legislation. At the same time she could make clear that a joint sitting is only necessary if the Senate adds amendments that are unacceptable to the Government and even say the Government will be prepared to accept reasonable Green amendments.
    If she reneges on the RSPT or weakens it significantly she will make Swan and others look like greater weaklings than Rudd was portrayed.
    If she waits, say until October or November before calling an election, the probability is that things will get worse because there may be one or two interest rate rises before then.
    If she calls snap double dissolution, she will catch the Opposition unaware. She will have the advantage of any honeymoon period.
    If she waits, she will give The Australian time to redouble its campaign to show her as a failed Minister because of alleged BER rorts.
    But what I fear is that Gillard will wait and the Right will convince her to give in to the mining companies and the campaign against BER “rorts” will make her unelectable.

  90. JohnL

    If Julia Gillard wins (which I think is probable), she would do well to ignore the Right Wing and do the unexpected.
    That unexpected would be:
    1. Call a meeting with the Greens to discuss the ETS and the RSPT.
    2. Announce the RSPT remains a firm policy of the Government under her.
    3. Announce that she will go to the Governor-General and seek an immediate double dissolution on the basis of failure to pass the ETS legislation. At the same time she could make clear that a joint sitting is only necessary if the Senate adds amendments that are unacceptable to the Government and even say the Government will be prepared to accept reasonable Green amendments.
    If she reneges on the RSPT or weakens it significantly she will make Swan and others look like greater weaklings than Rudd was portrayed.
    If she waits, say until October or November before calling an election, the probability is that things will get worse because there may be one or two interest rate rises before then.
    If she calls snap double dissolution, she will catch the Opposition unaware. She will have the advantage of any honeymoon period.
    If she waits, she will give The Australian time to redouble its campaign to show her as a failed Minister because of alleged BER rorts.
    But what I fear is that Gillard will wait and the Right will convince her to give in to the mining companies and the campaign against BER “rorts” will make her unelectable.

  91. sam

    Paul @ 41, Gillard is many things, but she is not Barrie Unsworth.

    The troglodytes on the NSW Right are instinctively and inherently drawn away from good policy, but they can read internal polling. It appears to be very clear that Rudd has irrevocably lost the bogans in the outer suburbs and the regions. That is the stuff of landslide losses. Forget the 2PP polls, which are based on a hypothetical distribution of Green primary votes which are out of all historical experience. It’s the primary vote that counts.

    Whether Gillard can turn it around is an open question. She at least has been a successful minister (in the sense of getting her program implemented, whatever you think of it), which makes her a small minority in the government.

  92. sam

    Paul @ 41, Gillard is many things, but she is not Barrie Unsworth.

    The troglodytes on the NSW Right are instinctively and inherently drawn away from good policy, but they can read internal polling. It appears to be very clear that Rudd has irrevocably lost the bogans in the outer suburbs and the regions. That is the stuff of landslide losses. Forget the 2PP polls, which are based on a hypothetical distribution of Green primary votes which are out of all historical experience. It’s the primary vote that counts.

    Whether Gillard can turn it around is an open question. She at least has been a successful minister (in the sense of getting her program implemented, whatever you think of it), which makes her a small minority in the government.

  93. Liam

    Well I felt sick watching that scumbag Howes crow about the AWU’s lack of support for Rudd. Since when does a union’s executive get to decide the numbers—and boast? Fuck them, fuck them sideways.

    Bastards couldn’t be worse than Labor factional bosses

    Nickws, if you’re a Whitlamite, I’m definitely a Holmanite—caucus supremacist.
    We’ll wait and see about policy. I’ve got time for Gillard, I’m hoping for promotions for Combet and a few others, but the proof’s going to be in policy direction.

  94. Liam

    Well I felt sick watching that scumbag Howes crow about the AWU’s lack of support for Rudd. Since when does a union’s executive get to decide the numbers—and boast? Fuck them, fuck them sideways.

    Bastards couldn’t be worse than Labor factional bosses

    Nickws, if you’re a Whitlamite, I’m definitely a Holmanite—caucus supremacist.
    We’ll wait and see about policy. I’ve got time for Gillard, I’m hoping for promotions for Combet and a few others, but the proof’s going to be in policy direction.

  95. Liam

    Also ten points and a Sussex St food court laksa to anyone who can identify the following:

    A malign and disloyal group well known to the NSW community has made the business of government almost impossible.
    The presence of such a group within the nation’s oldest and proudest political Party is intolerable.
    Their treachery and disloyalty can be borne no longer…

  96. Liam

    Also ten points and a Sussex St food court laksa to anyone who can identify the following:

    A malign and disloyal group well known to the NSW community has made the business of government almost impossible.
    The presence of such a group within the nation’s oldest and proudest political Party is intolerable.
    Their treachery and disloyalty can be borne no longer…

  97. murph the surf.

    Sydney FC Supporter’s Club?

  98. murph the surf.

    Sydney FC Supporter’s Club?

  99. Liam

    Heh. If he knew who he was, I reckon Rudd could empathise with Terry Butcher.

  100. Liam

    Heh. If he knew who he was, I reckon Rudd could empathise with Terry Butcher.

  101. Nickws

    I’m definitely a Holmanite

    Liam, I see what you did there, invoking the name of a rat who left Labor to serve in not one but two tory parties.

    Anyway, if Combet votes for Rudd this morning do you agree that he looks the best bet for 2014 or whenever it is the party tires of the awesomeness that will be our female Barack Obama?

  102. Nickws

    I’m definitely a Holmanite

    Liam, I see what you did there, invoking the name of a rat who left Labor to serve in not one but two tory parties.

    Anyway, if Combet votes for Rudd this morning do you agree that he looks the best bet for 2014 or whenever it is the party tires of the awesomeness that will be our female Barack Obama?

  103. Labor Outsider

    Wow, talking about some hefty over-reactions. Newsflash Adrian and Tyro, the world isn’t coming to an end. The spill is ultimately about two things: a) Rudd has lost the confidence of the punters that will decide the election; and b) he has lost the confidence of his own caucus. The seeds of b) began well before the MSM’s campaign began. a) is directly related to mistakes that he himself has made in recent months. Deposing Rudd comes with a lot of electoral risks, but many think Gillard is the ALP’s best shot at winning the election. She doesn’t have to take policy in a new direction. She just has to be a better advocate for Labor’s policies, and restore some focus and discipline to the government.

  104. Labor Outsider

    Wow, talking about some hefty over-reactions. Newsflash Adrian and Tyro, the world isn’t coming to an end. The spill is ultimately about two things: a) Rudd has lost the confidence of the punters that will decide the election; and b) he has lost the confidence of his own caucus. The seeds of b) began well before the MSM’s campaign began. a) is directly related to mistakes that he himself has made in recent months. Deposing Rudd comes with a lot of electoral risks, but many think Gillard is the ALP’s best shot at winning the election. She doesn’t have to take policy in a new direction. She just has to be a better advocate for Labor’s policies, and restore some focus and discipline to the government.

  105. Ken Lovell

    Admirable attempt at a silk purse LO @ 52. Another interpretation is that the Party is in a blind panic and now the destabilisation has begun, it will be unstoppable.

    Most members of the public must be feeling like I felt when I read the news last night: WTF??? Are these people insane?

    Can anybody point to a comparable situation in the past that ended well for the party concerned?

  106. Ken Lovell

    Admirable attempt at a silk purse LO @ 52. Another interpretation is that the Party is in a blind panic and now the destabilisation has begun, it will be unstoppable.

    Most members of the public must be feeling like I felt when I read the news last night: WTF??? Are these people insane?

    Can anybody point to a comparable situation in the past that ended well for the party concerned?

  107. Fran Barlow

    John L

    It would make no sense to hold a DD before August, since the senate’s term is backdated to July 1. You’d lose a year of the senate and have to have split polls or go early.

    Personally (assuming a Gillard win), I think November now makes more sense, as it gives her time to establish herself as the solid incumbent/first female PM and to do the policy tweaking she needs to make Rudd the out of touch autocrat and her the PM who listens while being firm. It also gives her time to work over Abbott in parliament.

    Providing she does nothing on RSPT that looks like a win to extractive industry at the expense of government, she can do what she likes. She might like to redesign the budget to take the RSPT out of it and the forward estimates, saying that the isse of “resource sharing” needs a fresh mandate, both on matters of principle and design. Ditto the ETS. Ditto asylum seekers. The ALP’s mantra ought to be this is an election in which we decide what kind of country we see ourselves as … and to focus on where the ALP would take us versus where the Liberals want to go. Make it existential.

  108. Fran Barlow

    John L

    It would make no sense to hold a DD before August, since the senate’s term is backdated to July 1. You’d lose a year of the senate and have to have split polls or go early.

    Personally (assuming a Gillard win), I think November now makes more sense, as it gives her time to establish herself as the solid incumbent/first female PM and to do the policy tweaking she needs to make Rudd the out of touch autocrat and her the PM who listens while being firm. It also gives her time to work over Abbott in parliament.

    Providing she does nothing on RSPT that looks like a win to extractive industry at the expense of government, she can do what she likes. She might like to redesign the budget to take the RSPT out of it and the forward estimates, saying that the isse of “resource sharing” needs a fresh mandate, both on matters of principle and design. Ditto the ETS. Ditto asylum seekers. The ALP’s mantra ought to be this is an election in which we decide what kind of country we see ourselves as … and to focus on where the ALP would take us versus where the Liberals want to go. Make it existential.

  109. Kaboomski

    If i may make some observations as a interested but increasingly disenchanted Labor voter please. I saw the Home Insulation “debacle” as a beat up, the school building program is a great positive,the handling of the GFC showed courage. But, when Kevin Rudd dropped the ETS without any warning i decided then that my vote would not necessarily be for Labor come the next election.I made this decision as it seemed to me that Abbott well and truly has Kevins measure, Kevin cannot get a coherant message out, now we have this Resources Tax being mangled.I do not want Abbott as our next PM, Keating would have torn him to shreds by now,Kevin,well he seems to pretend that Abbott does not exist.my feeling is that while this is not pretty and will give the media great sport,this change is for the best, i believe Julia will rise above the criticism of being a puppet,as Bob Hawke rose above the ” blood on his hands” accusations.I don’t think Tony Abbott will like this at all! Cheers

  110. Kaboomski

    If i may make some observations as a interested but increasingly disenchanted Labor voter please. I saw the Home Insulation “debacle” as a beat up, the school building program is a great positive,the handling of the GFC showed courage. But, when Kevin Rudd dropped the ETS without any warning i decided then that my vote would not necessarily be for Labor come the next election.I made this decision as it seemed to me that Abbott well and truly has Kevins measure, Kevin cannot get a coherant message out, now we have this Resources Tax being mangled.I do not want Abbott as our next PM, Keating would have torn him to shreds by now,Kevin,well he seems to pretend that Abbott does not exist.my feeling is that while this is not pretty and will give the media great sport,this change is for the best, i believe Julia will rise above the criticism of being a puppet,as Bob Hawke rose above the ” blood on his hands” accusations.I don’t think Tony Abbott will like this at all! Cheers

  111. Nickws

    Oh, and apropos of the question I addressed to Corin at 29, I just noticed that that commenter at 16 had already declared their hand as some kind of amoral neoliberal type (remember the thread here from several weeks ago when the issue of 20% of Green party activists identifying as ‘Rightwing’ was raised? I doubt Corin is even that progressive):

    It is easier for Gillard to backflip on ETS than Rudd. I also think she’ll neghotiate a settlement with miners but with a rent tax at the core. They need ETS politics not RSPT as it is.

    But at least Julia is our Obama!

  112. Nickws

    Oh, and apropos of the question I addressed to Corin at 29, I just noticed that that commenter at 16 had already declared their hand as some kind of amoral neoliberal type (remember the thread here from several weeks ago when the issue of 20% of Green party activists identifying as ‘Rightwing’ was raised? I doubt Corin is even that progressive):

    It is easier for Gillard to backflip on ETS than Rudd. I also think she’ll neghotiate a settlement with miners but with a rent tax at the core. They need ETS politics not RSPT as it is.

    But at least Julia is our Obama!

  113. Fran Barlow

    Ken said:

    Can anybody point to a comparable situation in the past that ended well for the party concerned?

    The data pool for a comparable situation is zero, so that will be difficult. No PM who led the opposition into government has ever been denied a chance to defend the title. Rudd will have served as PM for fewer days than Whitlam, and yet Whitlam never went near Rudd in terms of personal popularity. Even in June of 1975, when you could have made an argument for dumping Whitlam if you were in “whatever it takes” mode, they thought this was unthinkable.

    This is a very high risk low return thing to do, but there’s no turning back now.

  114. Fran Barlow

    Ken said:

    Can anybody point to a comparable situation in the past that ended well for the party concerned?

    The data pool for a comparable situation is zero, so that will be difficult. No PM who led the opposition into government has ever been denied a chance to defend the title. Rudd will have served as PM for fewer days than Whitlam, and yet Whitlam never went near Rudd in terms of personal popularity. Even in June of 1975, when you could have made an argument for dumping Whitlam if you were in “whatever it takes” mode, they thought this was unthinkable.

    This is a very high risk low return thing to do, but there’s no turning back now.

  115. Labor Outsider

    Ken, I know what you mean. When I rang my mum last night to tell her what was going on, she was speechless. Then again, she is voting Labor regardless.

  116. Labor Outsider

    Ken, I know what you mean. When I rang my mum last night to tell her what was going on, she was speechless. Then again, she is voting Labor regardless.

  117. Zorronsky

    Rudd giving up without a ballot

  118. Zorronsky

    Rudd giving up without a ballot

  119. Labor Outsider

    That tells you all you need to know about how weak his support was…

  120. Labor Outsider

    That tells you all you need to know about how weak his support was…

  121. danny

    Hmmm, Greens member for Griffith?

  122. danny

    Hmmm, Greens member for Griffith?

  123. SGN

    It will be the height of irony if a progressive move like elevating the first woman prime minister ultimately leads to the election of the most regressive prime minister in a generation being elected to replace her.

  124. SGN

    It will be the height of irony if a progressive move like elevating the first woman prime minister ultimately leads to the election of the most regressive prime minister in a generation being elected to replace her.

  125. Nickws

    Labor Outsider, you don’t think it’s possible he decided it best not to lose by a Keating-early-’91 or a Hawke-late-’91 margin? That he had his party’s best interests at heart? That he knows the media frame-up of the Labor government would continue if Gillard won with 65-out-of-105 or whatever it was being predicted?

    Fuck man, it’s a good thing you never worked for either of Hawkie or PK, you’d still be in therapy.

    On the other thread I pointed out how there is no way backbenchers who never served in the ministry could have realistic grievances such as an ex-staffer or public servant like yourself has.

  126. Nickws

    Labor Outsider, you don’t think it’s possible he decided it best not to lose by a Keating-early-’91 or a Hawke-late-’91 margin? That he had his party’s best interests at heart? That he knows the media frame-up of the Labor government would continue if Gillard won with 65-out-of-105 or whatever it was being predicted?

    Fuck man, it’s a good thing you never worked for either of Hawkie or PK, you’d still be in therapy.

    On the other thread I pointed out how there is no way backbenchers who never served in the ministry could have realistic grievances such as an ex-staffer or public servant like yourself has.

  127. Labor Outsider

    It is possible Nick, but I doubt it. He had a chance last night to fall in his sword but chose not to. It became clear as the night went on that his support was dismal. Also, from my direct experience of his personality, it would be unusual for him to behave in such an honorable way. However, only really he and his closest advisers will ever know the truth, and I wouldn’t expect them to admit baser motives even if they were present.

    On the backbenchers thing, they have a legitimate expectation that the leader will treat them with respect. Rudd never did that.

  128. Labor Outsider

    It is possible Nick, but I doubt it. He had a chance last night to fall in his sword but chose not to. It became clear as the night went on that his support was dismal. Also, from my direct experience of his personality, it would be unusual for him to behave in such an honorable way. However, only really he and his closest advisers will ever know the truth, and I wouldn’t expect them to admit baser motives even if they were present.

    On the backbenchers thing, they have a legitimate expectation that the leader will treat them with respect. Rudd never did that.

  129. Nickws

    He had a chance last night to fall in his sword but chose not to. It became clear as the night went on that his support was dismal.

    Are you shitting me? Those of us with lives away from the Internet and television didn’t even learn of this fight until this morning.

    He was still in the first stages of this, he acted quickly, he fell on his sword, he wasn’t prolonging anything.

    You honestly think he was taking the ALP through some long national nightmare by filling out less than half a 24hr news cycle before deciding to pursue the most gracious course of action? Get over yourself.

    On the backbenchers thing, they have a legitimate expectation that the leader will treat them with respect. Rudd never did that.

    I would ask you for proof beyond the allegations of wannabe players like Kelvin Thompson, but I wouldn’t want to make you soil your status as a Labor Outsider.

    it would be unusual for him to behave in such an honorable way.

    Your RDS won’t have Rudd to kick around any more.

  130. Nickws

    He had a chance last night to fall in his sword but chose not to. It became clear as the night went on that his support was dismal.

    Are you shitting me? Those of us with lives away from the Internet and television didn’t even learn of this fight until this morning.

    He was still in the first stages of this, he acted quickly, he fell on his sword, he wasn’t prolonging anything.

    You honestly think he was taking the ALP through some long national nightmare by filling out less than half a 24hr news cycle before deciding to pursue the most gracious course of action? Get over yourself.

    On the backbenchers thing, they have a legitimate expectation that the leader will treat them with respect. Rudd never did that.

    I would ask you for proof beyond the allegations of wannabe players like Kelvin Thompson, but I wouldn’t want to make you soil your status as a Labor Outsider.

    it would be unusual for him to behave in such an honorable way.

    Your RDS won’t have Rudd to kick around any more.

  131. Kaboomski

    Wayne Swan as Deputy PM, would this mean that he swung his support to Julia? Did he and Kevin Rudd have a falling out years ago which needed to be patched up before Kevin could be elevated to the leadership of the Labor party or is my recollection askew. Interesting days indeed.

  132. Kaboomski

    Wayne Swan as Deputy PM, would this mean that he swung his support to Julia? Did he and Kevin Rudd have a falling out years ago which needed to be patched up before Kevin could be elevated to the leadership of the Labor party or is my recollection askew. Interesting days indeed.

  133. paul walter

    No, people need to go sit down with two asprin and a glass of water. All you are doing is the political equivalent of a football interchange. Rudd has seen off Howard and his old guard, But Abbott seems a problem.
    Rightly or wrongly, as per some posts above, Gillard may have an advantage in this situation; her quick wits should be a potent weapon in her duels with the opposition.
    it’s all a very sane move, if you ignore the risk of rancour from some nit actually beleiving it all, or the unsavoury elements involved in the take over.

  134. paul walter

    No, people need to go sit down with two asprin and a glass of water. All you are doing is the political equivalent of a football interchange. Rudd has seen off Howard and his old guard, But Abbott seems a problem.
    Rightly or wrongly, as per some posts above, Gillard may have an advantage in this situation; her quick wits should be a potent weapon in her duels with the opposition.
    it’s all a very sane move, if you ignore the risk of rancour from some nit actually beleiving it all, or the unsavoury elements involved in the take over.

  135. Labor Outsider

    Relax Nick. There are three possible explanations for his falling on his sword this morning: a) he wanted to save the party from a Hawke-Keating style scenario; b) his goose was cooked and he wanted to avoid further humiliation; and c) a combination of a) and b). Who knows the truth. I don’t. All I pointed out was that he wasn’t renowned for putting the party’s interests before his own. Of course I don’t think he was putting the country through a long national nightmare. Just questioning whether the altruistic interpretation is necessarily the right one.

    Let me get one thing straight. Kevin isn’t a bad guy. He did a great job to win the last election, was dedicated to the job, and acted decisively when the GFC hit. However, he was a bad manager – of his time, of his staff, of the public service, of his caucus. The implications of that poor management weren’t obvious early in his leadership, but have been pretty obvious over he past few months. It is a shame in many ways. He is a brilliant man and could have been a much more successful leader if he had followed through on some of the things that his better instincts suggested he should. I imagine he will regret the way he handled the ETS for a very long time.

  136. Labor Outsider

    Relax Nick. There are three possible explanations for his falling on his sword this morning: a) he wanted to save the party from a Hawke-Keating style scenario; b) his goose was cooked and he wanted to avoid further humiliation; and c) a combination of a) and b). Who knows the truth. I don’t. All I pointed out was that he wasn’t renowned for putting the party’s interests before his own. Of course I don’t think he was putting the country through a long national nightmare. Just questioning whether the altruistic interpretation is necessarily the right one.

    Let me get one thing straight. Kevin isn’t a bad guy. He did a great job to win the last election, was dedicated to the job, and acted decisively when the GFC hit. However, he was a bad manager – of his time, of his staff, of the public service, of his caucus. The implications of that poor management weren’t obvious early in his leadership, but have been pretty obvious over he past few months. It is a shame in many ways. He is a brilliant man and could have been a much more successful leader if he had followed through on some of the things that his better instincts suggested he should. I imagine he will regret the way he handled the ETS for a very long time.

  137. Nickws

    Well, LO, nice to see I prompted you into writing something nuanced.

    Otherwise this tendency you have to write from the mouth intrigues me.

  138. Nickws

    Well, LO, nice to see I prompted you into writing something nuanced.

    Otherwise this tendency you have to write from the mouth intrigues me.

  139. Liam

    All I pointed out was that he wasn’t renowned for putting the party’s interests before his own

    Yes but LO if we’re defining the Party as the National Executive of the AWU, Feeney and the SDA, some South Australians and Albo after the fact I think the Party’s interests aren’t necessarily in contention.

  140. Liam

    All I pointed out was that he wasn’t renowned for putting the party’s interests before his own

    Yes but LO if we’re defining the Party as the National Executive of the AWU, Feeney and the SDA, some South Australians and Albo after the fact I think the Party’s interests aren’t necessarily in contention.

  141. Labor Outsider

    Nick, I think most of my comments are nuanced, but then again, I would wouldn’t I! When commenting on blogs it is very easy to get caught up in the adversarial nature of it all, especially when you read something that you disagree with strongly. But as with all the policy and political debates we have on LP, the right way of thinking about things usually lies in the greyness between the extremes. Rudd is neither as good or as bad as some make out. Neither are Gillard or Abbott. The ETS wasn’t great policy, but it wasn’t appalling. The same probably goes for the NBN.

    To be honest I got the $uck out of politics because, as an economist, I found it too frustrating and thought there were better ways of influencing public policy for the better. These days I do my work from the safety of an international organisation.

  142. Labor Outsider

    Nick, I think most of my comments are nuanced, but then again, I would wouldn’t I! When commenting on blogs it is very easy to get caught up in the adversarial nature of it all, especially when you read something that you disagree with strongly. But as with all the policy and political debates we have on LP, the right way of thinking about things usually lies in the greyness between the extremes. Rudd is neither as good or as bad as some make out. Neither are Gillard or Abbott. The ETS wasn’t great policy, but it wasn’t appalling. The same probably goes for the NBN.

    To be honest I got the $uck out of politics because, as an economist, I found it too frustrating and thought there were better ways of influencing public policy for the better. These days I do my work from the safety of an international organisation.

  143. Labor Outsider

    Liam, I worked for the SDA and Don Farrell once upon a time. I know all too well what motivates them. You haven’t lived until you have experienced the parallel universe of an SDA conference!

  144. Labor Outsider

    Liam, I worked for the SDA and Don Farrell once upon a time. I know all too well what motivates them. You haven’t lived until you have experienced the parallel universe of an SDA conference!

  145. Lefty E

    Well, its got to be all about the policies now.

    I think we can all agree the internal affairs of the ALP are of zero interest to punters – and probably a net negative to discuss openly. So thats out.

    The notion that “a challenge was happening anyway” is specious rot – without Julia coming aboard there was no challenge possible. Who else would have stood had she said no? A nobody like Arbib? A first termer like Shorten?

    As for ‘Rudd was disloyal’ – oh please. Isnt it obvious why he had suspicions?

    So: if it is about the polls, and policy, as they say: let’s see the comprehensive environment policy then. Then I will persoanlly start beleiving this was a good move. So will a huge % of Australian that have drifted to the Greens lately. You think they’ll swing back just becuase of Julia?

    Without that policy shift, where it all started going wrong for Rudd – all this will have been totally pointless.

    The Greeens will *still* be coming to chop off your left leg, ALP.

  146. Lefty E

    Well, its got to be all about the policies now.

    I think we can all agree the internal affairs of the ALP are of zero interest to punters – and probably a net negative to discuss openly. So thats out.

    The notion that “a challenge was happening anyway” is specious rot – without Julia coming aboard there was no challenge possible. Who else would have stood had she said no? A nobody like Arbib? A first termer like Shorten?

    As for ‘Rudd was disloyal’ – oh please. Isnt it obvious why he had suspicions?

    So: if it is about the polls, and policy, as they say: let’s see the comprehensive environment policy then. Then I will persoanlly start beleiving this was a good move. So will a huge % of Australian that have drifted to the Greens lately. You think they’ll swing back just becuase of Julia?

    Without that policy shift, where it all started going wrong for Rudd – all this will have been totally pointless.

    The Greeens will *still* be coming to chop off your left leg, ALP.

  147. Liam

    You haven’t lived until you have experienced the parallel universe of an SDA conference

    I’ve experienced their unique contributions to ALP conferences, LO, so I can quite imagine.

  148. Liam

    You haven’t lived until you have experienced the parallel universe of an SDA conference

    I’ve experienced their unique contributions to ALP conferences, LO, so I can quite imagine.

  149. Nickws

    The Greeens will *still* be coming to chop off your left leg, ALP.

    I repeat my thought experiment of earlier on this thread (or one of the other threads)—full PR for parliament, give us the chance to vote on some combination of Turnbullism and the Greens to supplant the ALP as the main non-conservative force in politics should Gillardism/Shortenism not work.

    And I do pray the new machine politics works (think of the alternative), but I can’t avoid the conclusion these geniuses might just be terrified of their own shadows.

  150. Nickws

    The Greeens will *still* be coming to chop off your left leg, ALP.

    I repeat my thought experiment of earlier on this thread (or one of the other threads)—full PR for parliament, give us the chance to vote on some combination of Turnbullism and the Greens to supplant the ALP as the main non-conservative force in politics should Gillardism/Shortenism not work.

    And I do pray the new machine politics works (think of the alternative), but I can’t avoid the conclusion these geniuses might just be terrified of their own shadows.

  151. Jesterette

    “A good government that was losing its way.” Or words to that effect.

  152. Jesterette

    “A good government that was losing its way.” Or words to that effect.

  153. Luke Walladge

    Liam @ 48,

    So-called “Groupers”. But forget the laksa.

  154. Luke Walladge

    Liam @ 48,

    So-called “Groupers”. But forget the laksa.

  155. rob

    So many of these ‘succinct’ comments are so one-dimensional, assuming some factor or other is to ‘blame’ without any room for explanation or desire for real discussion.
    Twittering and micro-replies to blogs too soften sound like ‘pub talk’.
    At least it doesn’t seem to share the ‘groupthink’ of pub talk.
    Keep on commenting BUT pls remember those old pub bigots, and try not to sound like them.

  156. rob

    So many of these ‘succinct’ comments are so one-dimensional, assuming some factor or other is to ‘blame’ without any room for explanation or desire for real discussion.
    Twittering and micro-replies to blogs too soften sound like ‘pub talk’.
    At least it doesn’t seem to share the ‘groupthink’ of pub talk.
    Keep on commenting BUT pls remember those old pub bigots, and try not to sound like them.

  157. Lefty E

    I’ll ‘ave ‘arf! 🙂

    Can I just say I welcome the new toolbar. The old one was a good toolbar that had lost its way.

  158. Lefty E

    I’ll ‘ave ‘arf! 🙂

    Can I just say I welcome the new toolbar. The old one was a good toolbar that had lost its way.