« profile & posts archive

This author has written 782 posts for Larvatus Prodeo.

Return to: Homepage | Blog Index

13 responses to “The beginning of the end for China’s one-child policy?”

  1. Chris

    One thing to consider is that by having the policy in place for 50 years will have been long enough to break the tradition of having a large family (boys, as many as you can have!) as a sign of status and wealth. This will benefit the environment in the long term. My great grandfather for example was quite well off and as a result my grandfather has over 20 siblings.

    I rather doubt you’ll see rich families in China returning to those sorts of family sizes even if it was legal.

  2. p.a.travers

    Sadly the one child policy may have reduced the willingness of the most productive members of the Chinese community to get their rightful inheritance.I doubt wanted kids would allow the rights of the Chinese people to respect decisions of everything Mao and on into now.And to me this is another sign of how manipulated humanity has become from the soothsayers related to the financing of the Chinese Revolution outcomes the Rothschild-Rockerfeller agents.This however wont stop the failure of infrastructure built with terribly deficient steel,and the Chinese will feel aggrieved again and again.May the Chinese get back their full humanity.

  3. wilful

    Thw thing I can never stand about this sort of reporting, is taht it is an unquestioned bit of illogic that demographic “timebombs” can be avoided by breeding a bit more, as if we have a couple of spare planets. It’s effing absurd – the same thing happens in Austrealian reporting all the time. Oh we’ve got an aging population, better grow a bit more. Why do these people never think one, two egenrations down the track. What are we supposed to do, discover another planet to live on? Gewtting a stable, regular age distribution curve should be an aim of any population discussion shouldn’t it?

    It’s quite absurd how this irrefutable logic is never ever seen or considered.

  4. Chris

    wilful @ 3 – a one child policy however will not result in a stable regular age distribution curve and it has really bad side effects for their society. A two child policy over the long term would seem to be a reasonable policy for stability.

  5. The Worst of Perth

    There’s a story claiming the policy will be relaxed at least once a year. Always without foundation. Just ignore until there is an official announcement.
    If both parents are from 1 child family they may be able to have 2. Minorities are also not restrained to 1 child.

  6. michaelw

    Interesting to read Peter Hessler’s latest book on Chin, Country Driving, in which he describes the many deserted villages in the interior of China, populated only by the elderly and sometimes their grandkids, as the working age people have all moved en mass to the cities. Can’t see how relaxing the one child policy will change any of that.

  7. derrida derider

    Counterintuitively, higher birth rates worsen the problems of population aging in all but the long run. For the first 20 years or so it actually decreases the proportion of population in work – it draws women out of the workforce and it means you have to support more kids on top of supporting more retirees.

    For China, boosting the birth rate now would probably be the worst possible timing, because the extra youth dependency will coincide with the period of maximum age dependency. They’d do better to wait a decade or two – but I’m sure their demographers (who IME are pretty good) have already pointed this out.

  8. tigtog

    An interesting post from Echidne of the Snakes looks at the other common way of framing the one-child policy (which I’m glad you avoided, Rob) – about the problems of bride-scarcity.

  9. tigtog

    But Echidne’s point was that the usual framing doesn’t have it as how this will be good for women because they will have greater choice and power in selecting a partner. The usual framing is how this is going to be even worse for women because desperate men will buy wives from a black-market in stolen, trafficked women. I thought the disparity between the scary/danger power imbalance framing and the classical economic scarcity/value framing was what was most interesting.

  10. Graham Bell

    RM and all:

    “Beginning of the end …. ”

    That’s hilarious. A decade ago, there was no shortage of little nieces and nephews who just happened to come into the big cities from way out in the countryside to stay in comfortable circumstances with “uncle and aunty”.

    One alternative to “One Child” was to continue the cycle of famines …. sadly, a better alternative was not adopted, the Singapore model of “Two Is Enough”. Singapore didn’t have a perfect system by any means but they have avoided some of the problems that will beset China.

    Derrida Derider (on 7):

    It all depends on HOW the population increase happens.

  11. Santa

    Lifting the one-child policy might not generate the desired fertility effect. The ingrained cultural (especially urban) trend to devote the entire household resources to a child will discourage having more than one child. There is only one way to mitigate China’s looming demographic social security and labor force shortage crisis… get ready for it…

    *drumroll*** IMMIGRATION!!!!!!

    It offers the destitute from India, Bangladesh, Southeast Asia, all of Africa, poorer Latin American countries, and Eastern/Central Europe a chance to pursue their dreams in the land of opportunity. Offer anyone citizenship that wants it.