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31 responses to “Poll-watch: clear as mud”

  1. PinkyOz

    Can we really be all that surprised?

    The government isn’t really doing much yet and the opposition have attracted all the votes that they can reasonably expect to catch with their current approach. It’s not going to change until someone decided to make a move, and considering the risk adverse nature of the parties, that may take a while yet.

  2. Sam

    if an election called today still no clear winner.

    This is delusiuonal. The coalition would win comfortably on those figures if an election was held today.

    These numbers will embolden Abbott to be as obstructive as he can be and force an election.

  3. Paul Burns

    Well. apart from calls from the Labor left for the right to stop suffocating them with the principle of Caucus solidarity, nothing much has changed. Not that we should have expected it to. (And I thought I read a recent poll somewhere that put opposition to Afghanistan at 63% – anybody else remember it?) And, apart from Turnbull positioning himself to knife Hockey or Abbott, and rural cretins complaining about fixing the Murray or living next door to a refugee centre, I suppose nothing much has changed because – nothing much has happened. Might be a month or not till after Xmas before the pols get exciting again.

  4. Sam

    Tigtog, margins of error go both ways. Yes, the true number might be 50:50, but then it might equally be 52:48 to the coalition.

    There is no way known that this poll is not good for the coalition.

    And more significantly, it should have gone the other way. The public is cutting the government no slack at all, which is almost unheard of at the beginning of a new term.

    Then there is the further bleeding of primary votes to the Greens, and the assumption that they would return to the ALP in the same proportion as in the election. Maybe they would, maybe they wouldn’t.

    The Labor is in trouble, long term structural trouble.

  5. Paul Burns

    Sam,
    I’d wait till the New Year before making such a call. We’re approaching the Xmas period where, unless you’re a political tragic, 0r there is an election on, not much thought is given to politics. Reckon it too early. And it seems there’s instabiulity in the Libs (Turnbull’s, Robb’s ambitions) and in the ALP (Left getting restive at long last, God bless ’em) – too many variables to make any kind of call except that the Greens wouls certainly get stronger. Though they’d be mad to gop into any formal kind of coalition with Labor.

  6. H&R

    I’m curious to know why we would reward the Coalition when the whole electorate will know it’s them who ruined our weekend because Australian democracy ought to operate like a poker machine.

  7. John D

    At a local level

    Labor turned in a poor show at Saturday’s by-election for the Brisbane City Council ward of Walter Taylor, which covers a strongly conservative area south-west of the city around Indooroopilly. At the close of counting Liberal National Party candidate Julian Simmonds had scored an easy victory with 57.1 per cent of the primary vote (down 6.5 per cent on the 2008 election), with Greens candidate Tim Dangerfield on 23.5 per cent (up 8.4 per cent) well ahead of Labor’s Louise Foley on 16.8 per cent (down 4.4 per cent). The by-election was necessitated by Jane Prentice’s election to the corresponding federal seat of Ryan in place of disendorsed LNP incumbent Michael Johnson

    Labor ran a very negative campaign with their letter drop saying nothing about their vision for the city with the implied message being “less action and lower rates.” By contrast both the LNP and the Greens had positive messages for the future. How long is it going to take Labor to realize that the voters are sick of low tax/low action/low risk government?

  8. joe2

    John D, at the same time, LNP running a “positive messages for the future” is something totally new. I am surprised they are capable of changing into that gear, through lack of use.

  9. Stephen

    People keep saying that nothing has happened since the election to change people’s votes.

    Does the $10 billion budget black hole ring a bell?

    How about the decision by the independents *not* to trust them?

    Abbott’s inability to negotiate?

    Abbott not visiting the troops because he didn’t want to be jet lagged when he was in London?

    The Coalition reneging on their deal regarding pairing of the speaker?

  10. Sam

    Stephen @ 10,

    all positives for the Labor Party. And still their vote has fallen.

  11. Lefty E

    If you read the poll, the Libs primary has dropped as well. Only the greens are up.

  12. joe2

    The right wing propaganda machine has not just gone away we must remember. If anything, it has become more shrill post election.

  13. Fran Barlow

    [email protected]

    You left out the most positive thing attaching to the ALP just now — the release of the guide to the draft of the MDBA, with all of its acclaim by the rightwing community. Surely that should have underpinned a positive set of numbers? No?

  14. Sam

    Fran

    I was commenting on Steve’s list.

    It’s not obvious anyway that the MDBA plan should be a net political negative for the ALP. Good for the environment, bad for some farmers and country towns … meh, potato potahto.

  15. joe2

    MDBA= Malcolm’s Landmine.

  16. wilful

    The point is, people, there is a pretty small and remote chance that there will be a federal election in the next two and a half years. I know old habits die hard, having just come through a gripping election, but polls at this point in the election cycle are as near irrelevant as can be imagined.

  17. Doug

    Essential Poll has everything all locked up, still and as well. What is curious is the ongoing divergence in the Essential Poll from the other polls on the level of support for the Greens – down to 8% as opposed to the a range of 11% to 14% in the other polls and nearly 12% in the election.

  18. hannah's dad

    Its the trend within each polling company that is important, not individual results and the comparative pattern with their trends.

    Essential Report polls have had a 2PP of 50:50 for some time now including immediately before the election.
    The Greens are at 8-9% with them [?] and Gillard is doing about the same or better compared to pre election but Abbott is going downwards slightly.

    Morgan has got the ALP well ahead on 2PP.
    A bit strange and some people discount it.
    BUT …
    Before the election Morgan had the ALP at:
    57
    51
    52
    51
    51
    The election was [as I’m sure you are all aware] 50:50 so Morgan was not far out at the end.
    Since the election Morgan has the ALP consistently in the 54% 2PP range with the Greens as for the election ot better.
    And they have had Abbott scoring below Gillard and getting slightly worse whilst Gillard is improving slightly.

    Newspoll had the ALP 50:50 at the election with Gillard scoring slightly better than Abbott.
    Since then the 2PP hasn’t changed but Gillard’s lead has improved slightly and Abbott has gone downhill slightly [and even significantly in one poll] and the Greens have maintained [increased slightly even] their ranking.

    So the trends for these 3 groups?

    No change in the 2PP [except for Morgan], the Greens doing slightly better [except for ER], Gillard doing slightly better, Abbott doing slightly [significantly in one case] worse than Gillard and his previous numbers in all cases.

    Now plug one single Nielsen into that context.

  19. Patricia WA

    What’s the story on the ‘voice over’ which accompanies each of the above leads I followed, telling me before I could read them that “Julia Gillard’s government is going bacwards according to the latest opinion poll……..” Who was interpreting for me the article I was interested in?

  20. adrian

    I thought it was passing strange that the newsreader and announcer on ABC radio (AM) both referred to the BER as “Labor’s school halls’ program”, which is of course the coalitions’s dismissive term. Sure, it’s a minor point, but all these minor points add up and influence our perceptions.

  21. tssk

    You are all missing the narrative to the media interpretation.

    The ALP has lost support and thus must hand over to the Coalition the reins of power as possible.

    etc etc etc.

  22. Kim

    Update: [by Kim] Essential Research has the two major parties tied at 50-50 on the 2PP.

  23. Andrew E

    Sam: 1998 election ALP 51% TPP. Ponder the achievements of the Beazley government if you will.

    This poll seems to be a clear rejection of the essential premise of the poll: yeah, but there wasn’t an election last weekend was there, so piss off and let’s just see what happens.

  24. Sabbra Cadabra

    When reading these polls you MUST take into account the fact that 1.4 million eligible voters are not enrolled and that 5-10% of enrolled voters fail to vote or cast an informal vote. These people get caught up in the poll samples and most will select a left of centre party based on age range etc.. For example, the great majority of unenrolled voters are under 30, a group that heavily favours the ALP and Greens.

    Let’s get this straight peeples, there is a significant difference between poll sample populations and people who cast a formal vote on election day.

  25. hannah's dad

    Newspoll has 52:48 COALition ahead.

  26. Holly

    Even though Gillard is polling BETTER than her party, and Abbott is doing worse than HIS party, what would happen if they shafted Tony for someone more electable?

    I think Tony has achieved as much as he’ll ever achieve. The Labor party lost credibility the day they shafted Rudd, because it exposed their ruthlessness.

    It was a free-kick for Abbott. It got him far, but failed to really hit the sweet spot, and I don’t think he’ll ever be gifted like that again.

    Turnbull is not putting a foot wrong, and is looking like the brains in the outfit, due to a low set bar.

    A better leader will save the Liberals and Gillard’s polling will drop. Rudd was loved for a long time, and Howard was hated but respected.

    If the Australian people haven’t taken Gillard into their hearts or mind just yet, they’d better do it quick.

  27. joe2

    Turnbull is not putting a foot wrong, and is looking like the brains in the outfit, due to a low set bar.

    Ya reckon Holly? Even by comparison to a bad bunch I think he is out of his depth.

    He looks to me like he’s trying to sell ‘internet in a box’ – “it’s wireless”- whenever he actually touches on a subject within his own portfolio.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QAUyaELfwBo

  28. John D

    The Australian said the Newspoll result was driven by a 6% drop in country support for Labor due to the Murray Darling issue. Brilliant of Malcolm to set up an inquiry that would shaft a Labor government.

  29. Catching up

    “The Australian said the Newspoll result was driven by a 6% drop in country support for Labor due to the Murray Darling issue” How many seats doe Labor have in this region.

  30. OldSkeptic

    Good, thanks to Hockey we know know that (in some areas at least) the Liberals are more left wing than Labor.

    The sight of an Australian Labor party deriding the ‘right wing’ Liberals by defending oligopoly banks is so hilarious. Lots of shoes should be thrown.

    You couldn’t make this stuff up.

    Time for Labor to go. It is so intellectually bankrupt, so systemically corrupt, so useless it should be shut down. Wipe it out from political history. Then we can all move on.

    It, like the Democrats in the US, has had it’s time and should just go.

    There is some, but very little, hope for the UK Labour, but holding my breath waiting would be counter productive to life.