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38 responses to “Election now?”

  1. Charles Richardson

    A 31 August election can be called any time up until next Monday, 29 July. If he wants to go then it’d probably be announced later this week. Antony Green has all the dates: http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2013/06/alternatives-to-an-election-on-14-september.html

  2. Martin B

    Note AG’s other post on election timing.

    Although legislatively an election for 33 days hence can be called on a Monday, logistically it has to be announced t least a day earlier to allow for coordination of all of the state Governors who are required to issue the Senate writs.

    So the practical deadline for a 24 Aug election has likely already expired.

  3. Martin B
  4. paul burns

    Albanese says no to August 24.

  5. Geoff Henderson

    It is time for an election to be called.
    “You have sat too long for any good you have been doing lately … Depart, I say; and let us have done with you. In the name of God, go!”
    Attributed to Cromwell, 1653

    I think I am more of a pragmatist than many LP folk. I believe I can see legacies from this boat people “solution” reaching out for years. I am not blind to the humanity involved, but looking at the Manus solution I see more serious problems emerging from the action than problems being solved.

    Manus has around 50,000 people settled on an area 30 times smaller than Tasmania. The impact of any substantial number of refugees is unlikely to be good, especially given the strong Christian roots of the communities.
    The land is mostly given to rainforest. It is a volcanic and earthquake zone. Land is held on a family basis.

    With parts of Nauru still smouldering, you have to gasp at the audacity of Rudd to enter into this agreement which it is not denied, supposed to be politically expedient for Rudd. And were the people of Manus consulted? Where is our moral obligation to them, our allies? Displacing our allies with anyone else is wrong. Even the legitimacy of the plan may be challenged.

    Political philosophy – right, left or where ever is a sort of wish list that parties aspire to implement on behalf of their constituents (and themselves). But the underlying caveat is that of competency, the ability to enact those philosophies in a proper way.

    This government fails too often, it is time to go. Call it Mr Rudd.

  6. Hoa Minh Truong

    Have you ever seen an enemy shows you how to defeat them by the big victory?. I have to say, never, never…but it happened in Australia at the federal election time.
    Anyone else could think and propose the replacement’s opposition leader Mr. Tony Abbott by Mr. Malcolm Turnbull, then the Coalition will claim the landslide victory. However, an acting prime minister, Mr Anthony Albanese who raised the incredible idea about the Malcolm Turnbull leader, he showed Coalition wipes out Labor into the next election. If I am as him, I have to keep quite entirely to save Labor, instead, I have never tell and propose any negative aspect to help Coalition will have big win. Mr. Anthony Albanese thinks people stupid.

  7. Sam

    I don’t think Rudd is afraid to bring back Parliament. He is on a roll, Abbott is floundering, and if he bests Abbott in the House that will do wonders for Labor morale.

    Obviously he has to square it with the indys that they will be vote against the inevitable no confidence motion, but that should be doable.

    The one thing Rudd must avoid at all costs is doing Abbott so badly that Libs turn to Turnbull, a la Hayden Hawke.

  8. Andrew Wilson

    Some tweets from a Channel 9 reporter suggesting election on 31 August

  9. Andrew Wilson

    Re my previous post: @TomRichardson if anyone wants to check?

  10. Douglas Hynd

    What about the need to the ALP to finish preselection for some significant seats – with processes out to the local membership at present before an election could be called?

  11. David Irving (no relation)

    I read somewhere recently (sorry, no link) that the election can’t happen before 14 Sep if they want to include the local govt referendum.

  12. paul burns

    DH @ 13,
    That’s all supposed to be finished by next Monday, I’ve heard. (ABC TV this morning, I think.)

  13. Doug

    Albanese has advised to all ‘chill out’ over speculation about the election date

  14. hannah's dad

    Today’s Morgan Poll
    ALP – 52
    COAL – 48

  15. Peter Murphy

    It’s 52.5% versus 47.5%. Greens are up to 9%.

  16. mindy

    I would think if he goes late August then not having done anything yet won’t count against him. If he doesn’t go in late August/early September and still doesn’t actually do anything then things could get tricky.

  17. hannah's dad

    I opted for this version, preferring to understate slightly.
    “When the Morgan Poll allocates preferences by how Australian electors voted at the last Federal election – the method used by Newspoll and Fairfax Nielsen – the Morgan Poll shows a slightly closer result: ALP (52%, up 0.5%) cf. L-NP (48%, down 0.5%).”

    Either way its got the ALP ahead which means Essential tomorrow and Newspoll probably tonight should be interesting.

  18. faustusnotes

    oh dear Mr. Rabbit, are those headlights I see on the horizon?

  19. Megan

    I’m not sure if things are going so well for Rudd. The wheels are looking a bit wobbly on the PNG solution (which I think is an atrocious idea but Abbott’s would probably be just as bad) and the Carbon Tax makeover not exactly gelling. Yes I think he’s got a bit of ‘tidying up loose ends’ until he deigns to call an election. But the most compelling reason of all to postpone the election to as long as possible is perhaps simply that Kevin Rudd seems to be enjoying himself to the max being back in his old job. He loves being in power and in front of the cameras, kissing babies and whooping it up with adoring crowds and messing with Tony Abbott’s head. I’m not sure if he wants to let go of the reins yet, not for a while…

  20. philip travers

    Either Rudd is waiting for an event that isn’t as yet commonly seen on the horizon,then becoming the event horizon.Or its a new Radar. Perhaps its a Radar in a Humphrey B.Bear suit walking like an Egyptian…singing both Father and Daughter Sinatra top hits.And a PNG mud mask at auditions.

  21. Hoa Minh Truong

    The opinion poll in this period is not exactly, during some body have not decide yet and the new changed policies of Labor on carbon tax, asylum seeker are still examining, actually the PNG solution being doubt. However the media seems to promote the weak Labor gets back on the line then they hope to win election. If Labor knows they will be lost the election, they won’t invest more many for advertising and Coalition has no need to spend for campaign, so the election being bored. Thank for the media, they bring the federal election more active.

  22. wmmb

    Wow, Hannah’s Dad, those poll results at that moment give the ALP the edge in the House of Reps. The Senate, with its various max size ballot papers and reduced font, is a different can of soup.

    The only sense I can make of the PNG option is that it is a short-term political fix, and maybe it will work. Still the underlying problems will remain. Perhaps it is the test of genuine political leadership that Kevin Rudd has set himself. In that case, very sincerely, “good luck”.

  23. Brian

    I think the local government referendum will be taken off the table. With Abbott’s latest stance we don’t any longer have bipartisanship, which makes it pointless. It may get a gig during a Rudd government term with Abbott out of the way.

    There is no point in recalling parliament, because the Greens won’t pass anything related to the ETS or asylum seekers.

    On Radio National today the reporter said that all we needed now was a financial statement. Should be there by week’s end surely.

    An August 31 election would allow a newly re-elected Rudd to go to the G20 (6 Sept, I think) with the heft and prestige of a PM at the beginning of term. I’m not sure people realise that after the GFC Obama wanted to consider the future of the world via the G8 plus a few, eg Brazil, China, India etc. Rudd successfully lobbied for the G20, plus a few like South Africa.

  24. hannah's dad

    Well pollwise today is a different kettle of fish than yesterday.
    Today Newspoll has delivered the goods for Tony and scotched Mal’s hopes [if he had any].
    What will Essential say later today? Will it confirm Newspoll or cast doubt on its verity by lining up with Morgan?
    Tune in for the latest episode of never ending poll driven frenzy.

  25. Doug

    In oen of those delightful ironies in which life abounds Kevin Rudd even if he does not win the election for the ALP will almost certainly have guaranteed a better result for the Greens in terms of overall voting percentage and Senate seats than looked likely a month ago with the revival of the ALP vote and likely delivering some members of the ALP left to vote Green over asylum seeker policy.

  26. Tim Macknay

    I’d say the Newspoll result reduces the chance of an early election.

  27. Charlie

    Funny with the proposed changes to ALP Parliamentary leadership selection/election!!

    Based on the Rudd/Gillard vote of 57:45, Rudd only had 56% of the caucus vote.

    Does that mean he should dis-elect himself?

  28. Terry2

    Brian @29: I think you are on the ball regarding the Local Government referendum. It has failed on prior occasions and with the surprising change in support by Abbott and the coalition (why has the MSM ignored this backflip ?) it cannot succeed .

    Question has to be asked, what exactly does Tony Abbott stand for ?

  29. akn

    Rudd needs to call the election ASAP for the best fighting chance. Abbott clearly wants a khaki election in order to promote himself as the manly rescuer of Australia’s imperiled virtue, sorry, protector of our boundaries, and Rudd needs to get in before the MSM can figure out how to outflank his outflanking.

  30. Phil263

    [email protected] 35

    Rudd needs to call the election ASAP for the best fighting chanceRudd needs to call the election ASAP for the best fighting chance

    Michelle Grattan seems to think that we are not likely to hear about an election date any time soon, as she argues that Rudd will be willing to consolidate his economic management position first. See:

    http://theconversation.com/grattan-on-friday-boats-done-the-economys-next-on-rudds-agenda-16404?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Latest+from+The+Conversation+for+26+July+2013&utm_content=Latest+from+The+Conversation+for+26+July+2013+CID_552c52a59734d076dc6ab11047362b76&utm_source=campaign_monitor&utm_term=Grattan%20on%20Friday%20Boats%20done%20%20the%20economys%20next%20on%20Rudds%20agenda

  31. Phil263
  32. David Irving (no relation)

    Hmm … if Grattan thinks we wont hear about an election any time soon, I reckon it’ll get announced in the next couple of days. (I mean, honestly, how long is it since she’s had a clue?)

    akn, I’ve noticed Abbott likes to hang around with genuinely manly men (soldiers, firemen, factory hands and the like). He’s obviously hoping some of that manliness will rub off on him.