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23 responses to “Budget strategies conundrum”

  1. nottrampis

    It doesn’t matter when the cold hard reality of Treasury telling them of their predicament re PEFO they will have to change.

  2. Digger Cole

    I cease to care.

    The country will continue in fair shape, whichever drones win. The well-off will still whine about “class war” while they enrich themselves further from the public purse and from the less well-off.

    The best any of us on the Left of politics can hope for is that Rudd gets the sack in his own seat. That’d help, down the track aways.

  3. Rocky

    This strange conflict between old style DLPism and Robb’s desire for austerity is going to lead to a godawful chaotic mess. It’s so full of contradictions that it’s difficult not to see it collapsing under its own weight.

  4. David Irving (no relation)

    Abbott, I think, imagines that once the adults are back in charge confidence will return and the creative juices of capitalism will flow.

    That’s probably partly correct. I think we’ve had a strike of capital over the last few years.

  5. Chris

    That last bit is staggering. Tingle points out that the the uncapped private health insurance rebate was growing exponentially before Labor cut it and will do so again.

    That appears to be just a bit of an exaggeration by Tingle. The cost has apparently been growing by about 6%/year which is higher than inflation, but hardly exponential.

    http://theconversation.com/things-you-should-know-about-private-health-insurance-rebates-15560

    It’s rather interesting that private health insurance rates have stayed steady or maybe even increased a bit over the period that the ALP have been in government (though the stats shown are only up to just before the reduced rebates were introduced in 2012). Probably says something about the inability of the ALP to influence improvement in the public hospital systems.

  6. Chris

    It doesn’t matter when the cold hard reality of Treasury telling them of their predicament re PEFO they will have to change.

    I imagine that they’ll cut really hard in the first year or two so they have stuff to give out for the next election. On the upside housing affordability in Canberra is going to significantly improve in the next year or two.

  7. BigBob

    Chris,

    That is exactly what they will do – slash hard and wait for the dollars to build so they can splurge in 2016.

    Thing is, times have changed – there isn’t as much to sell off as Costello had, nor is the as much fat in the public service as they would like to believe.

    They are totally boxed on the tax front – there is no way they can actually introduce any new taxation past the PPL levy without being crucified.

    The complete laziness and lack of application for the past 6 years will come home to roost. The prescriptions of the past will not work now. Every position put forward by the LNP is contradictory – Abbott’s ability to manage expectations of his backers is likely to be as miniscule as his ability to negotiate has been demonstrated to be.

  8. Ambigulous

    Chris,

    In mathematical terms, something growing at a fixed percentage per annum is growing exponentially.

    But in popular parlance, where ‘exponential’ means very rapid growth OMG it’s going to be disastrous! – you’re right, 6% p.a. is small beer.

    But growing, so keep an eye on it.

  9. Russell

    ” I think we’ve had a strike of capital over the last few years.”

    Clearly not living in W.A. Y’all may not have mines, but surely the Chinese have been buying up yer farms, or something?

  10. mindy

    Big fuss here recently because local rural store/rural real estate has been advertising to Chinese interests.

  11. David Irving (no relation)

    Russell, I’m thinking more of the unstated assumption that business confidence will improve once there’s an Abbott govt back in its rightful place. I meant local capital, not the foreign stuff.

  12. Katz

    On Santamaria’s death in 1998, Abbott cheekily wrote in an obituary that the “DLP is alive and well and living inside the Howard Government” ([Abbott, Battlelines], p.11).

    http://newsweekly.com.au/article.php?id=3731

    How much has Abbott changed his mind since 1998?

  13. Chris

    Ambigulous @ 8 – yes, agreed. I think its probably more appropriate to compare it to the growth in public health spending.

    Big fuss here recently because local rural store/rural real estate has been advertising to Chinese interests.

    This sort of thing seems to come up regularly though the concern about which country changes depending on what country we’re currently afraid of. Seems to me that there’s a significant element of xenophobia involved given there is rarely little worry about ownership from western countries, but I’d support a register of foreign ownership as has been proposed by a few groups just to reduce the paranoia.

  14. mindy

    I think it is probably xenophobia dressed up as food security concerns. The idea being that in the case of a shortage the owners might ship the produce back to China rather than sell on the Australian market.

  15. mindy

    But if we want to talk food security etc we should probably go to the Overflow thread.

  16. Russell

    “I’m thinking more of the unstated assumption that business confidence will improve once there’s an Abbott govt back in its rightful place”

    Yes, and why not – an Abbott government should be good for business, that’s their raison d’etre. Penalty rates might be the first to go. And when the Reserve Bank next lowers the interest rates Abbott will be able to say “Interests rates are always lower under the Coalition”.

    Meanwhile, though we (in W.A. at least) do see capital investing in new shopping centres etc. and people continue to snap up new expensive cars, I think there is an underlying unease that since half of Europe is stuffed, and the U.S. has printed so much money it’s uncountable, and that China may stop buying our stuff, and the planet will fry… there’s not much to be confident about.

  17. philip travers

    Lots of little important matters are being overlooked at this election,that is just another reason not to vote.For example Rudd has clasped the hands of the accusative U.S.A. over the paralysis tick response of the Syrians.Did or didn’t he order this chemistry,is not as yet given a clinical forensic insight.Just Rudd being a ex-diplomat.Well when I was eighteen I happened to work alongside someone on a apple orchard who was a diplomat’s father.Proud of his son,proud to be Australian and proud to work alongside returnees from the Second World War,maybe a Vietnam Vet whatever.I say this about Rudd,the what question,the guy word, and the appalling nature of himself perhaps Abbott making decisions in government about other countries.Would turn all these men in their graves.I say given no evidence that Assad is guilty of poisoning his own people has been presented,a lot more than a wet eye occurs to me right now.What I have seen of Assad Loyalists I have liked.I don’t want that destroyed for the sake of Rudd or Abbott at the helm.

  18. John D

    Money is invested when markets are expected to grow.
    Internal markets are going to shrink if wages are cut and jobs disappear because markets are shrinking because………
    We avoided most of the downsides of the GFC because we had a government at the time that the best way to boost internal markets is to move more money to the poor in our society.
    Reducing the taxes of the rich and cutting government spending hasn’t worked overseas – why should it suddenly work under an Abbott government?

  19. Debbieanne

    It is absolutely frightening to think of a federal example of the current Qld government.

  20. Flann O'Brien

    “If they don’t tell us how they are going to bring the budget back into surplus then they can’t be wrong!”

    Seems to be part of a pattern of treating us punters as mugs.

    The Five Rules of Modern Liberal campaigning:
    1. Be shifty and evasive on costings and cuts
    2. Pretend the country is going to rack and ruin but assume it’s not
    3. Outsource your advertising to the Murdoch press (they do it for free)
    4. Try to “shut up” your opponent when he questions you during a debate
    5. Hide your candidates (http://www.canberratimes.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2013/liberal-candidates-duck-the-spotlight-fearing-the-jaymes-diaz-effect-20130828-2sq3a.html)

    If they treat us as mugs, we’d be mugs to vote for them.

  21. Ambigulous

    Australia’s two most senior economic bureaucrats have effectively torpedoed Kevin Rudd’s claim of a $10 billion hole in opposition costings declaring that neither the Treasury nor the Finance Department had any role in the financial assessment.

    Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2013/treasury-deny-any-part-in-calculating-coalitions-10b-savings-hole-20130829-2stgu.html#ixzz2dLcTEEI9

    Another torpedo hits The Good Ship Kevin.