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32 responses to “All together for Albo!”

  1. Sam

    Albo will not be more electable after his enemies conduct a vicious leaking campaign in the media to undermine him, and that will be just his enemies within the Left of the Labor Party.

    Then there’s his enemies in the Right, the Liberal Party, the Murdochracy …

  2. Golliblog

    From the Guardian:

    Today’s Essential poll showed Labor had narrowed the gap with the Coalition post-election on the two party preferred measure.

    Today’s poll had the Coalition on 51%, and Labor on 49% – 2PP.

    That poll also showed that Tony Abbott is preferred to Anthony Albanese as prime minister (by 37% to 31%); and to Bill Shorten (by 37% to 32%.)

    In other words, no difference ( within MOE).

    My gut tells me Shorten is sharper and more capable, however my gut also told me Gillard would be a decent PM. Naughty, silly gut.

  3. adrian

    Let me fix that for you Sam.

    Albo Shorten will not be more electable after his enemies conduct a vicious leaking campaign in the media to undermine him, and that will be just his enemies within the Left Right of the Labor Party.

    Then there’s his enemies in the Right, Left, Centre, the Liberal Party, the Murdochracy and anybody else I can think of.

  4. Liz

    It also says 36% don’t have a preference. I imagine they don’t care at all at this stage of the electoral cycle. I think it’s impossible to say who’s going to be more appealing to the wider electorate.

    I like Albo. But, I thought Shorten was more impressive on Qanda. I don’t know that left and right has much meaning in the Labor Party these days.

  5. Sam

    Adrian, I prefer Albo, but am under no illusions that one day he will be Prime Minister. No first up opposition leader after his party lost office has ever subsequently become PM (at least not since world war one). The position is entirely sacrificial (ask: Brendan Nelson, Kim Beazley, Andrew Peacock, Gough Whitlam …)

  6. Jack Hughes

    The argument that we should disregard polls if their change is within the MOE fails. Opinion polls should not be interpreted as static indicators, frozen in time, nor should people assume that just because there is a margin of error every result within it is equally likely. Firstly, opinion polls represent a bell curve, if a poll results in a 47-53 to the Coalition 2PP, with a MOE of 3% and a confidence rating of 90%, it is suggesting that 47-53 is the most likely, and that any trends away from that represent a gradually decreasing probability, with a 90% chance (according to the pollsters) that it is not wrong by more than 3%. Secondly, the results of the poll are to be adjusted based upon the ‘house effect’ of the poll (ie. whether it tends to gave Labor friendly or Coalition friendly results), and upon the general reliability of the pollster (ie. how accurate its MOE and confidence ratings are). Thirdly, one should give some diminished weight to the polls preceding the new poll, and gradually more as they become more and more recent (the extent to which this should be done is of course debated and largely dependant upon the voting trend).
    Now, Morgan and Essential (especially Essential) are probably the least reliable pollsters, but the consistent improvement in Labor results across four Essential polls is nonetheless quite substantial. So, how should we interpret the Morgan and Essential poll results? As indicators of a slight trend towards Labor following the election, we shouldn’t get our hopes up and immediately assume that Labor are up to 48/49% 2PP yet, but the consistency of the polling suggests that Liberal 2PPs have decline since the election (which is historically unique, but that’s another matter).

  7. Russell

    The West Australian had a headline yesterday “The odds shorten on a Bill victory” and claim that up until their appearance in Perth “the name on the majority of members’ lips was Anthony Albanese. But a passionate 10-minute speech by former union boss Bill Shorten to the 500 members who attended a barbecue breakfast at Hyde Park yesterday had many of the rank and file swapping sides”.

  8. Tim Macknay

    Responses to the Albo-Shorten debate at Hyde Park are interesting. The general view on the day seemed to be that Shorten’s fiery speech won it for him. Personally I thought it was a bit short on substance in comparison to Albo’s effort, but I wasn’t in the majority, it seems.

  9. paul burns

    Their ABC is getting it wrong again.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-10-03/bill-shorten-jeered-labor-rank-and-file-meeting-wollongong/4995086?section=nsw

    Bill Shorten jeered at Labor rank-and-file meeting in Wollongong

    .
    Bill Shorten was not jeered at by the labor-rank-and-file at Wollongong. (Though he should’ve been.) He was jeered at by people who were

    were victims of the Trio Capital financial collapse.

    They claim Mr Shorten, who was the minister for financial services and superannuation, failed to protect people with self-managed super funds after they lost their life savings.

    This is the kind of misrepresentation the Murdoch run ABC gets up to even before a Labor leader is elected. God knows what they’ll be like after.

    FTR, if I was an ALP member, I’d be voting for Albanese.

  10. Mindy

    Everyone who I know who has a vote and is declaring their intentions is voting for Albo. Although I do have a very left leaning twitter stream so I won’t be surprised if the outcome is Shorten. I like Albo but can live with Shorten.

  11. Chris

    Paul @ 9 – Though the headline could have been better, the body of the article from the first paragraph was pretty clear about what happened though.

    I’ve always wondered if the claim, often made by rightwingers in the ALP, that whoever is their standard bearer is just *more electable*

    Are they just talking about charisma? Rudd, Gillard have it, even Abbott does to some extent. Albanese probably doesn’t. How many percentage points is charisma in a leader worth at an election?

    Adrian @ 3 – Shorten has already been a target for a while given it was pretty much assumed that he would be the next ALP leader, whilst Albanese hasn’t been widely known as having even long term leadership ambitions. It’s almost like he’s fallen into it accidentally. If that’s true it might be a nice change.

  12. monkeytypist

    Bill Shorten was not jeered at by the labor-rank-and-file at Wollongong.

    That’s why the headline doesn’t say that. “By” and “at” are different words.

    I am so tired of sneering people thinking they are clever by predicting a campaign of “leaks and undermining” against a new FPLP leader, whoever that is.

    Campaigns of leaks and undermining didn’t happen in the ALP just for sport. They happened because they were an effective way of gaining (or regaining) the leadership, by virtue of the fact that it was decided solely by a caucus vote, and caucus members are uniquely susceptible to bad polls.

    A campaign of leaks and undermining will NOT help you win a ballot of members. In fact precipitating a member vote by a campaign of leaks and undermining will likely have a result opposite to that amongst the membership. If someone wants to leak and undermine against a leader who has the majority support of the rank and file, they will fail. It’s as simple as that.

    As Albo said at the press conference announcing his candidacy to a journalist who asked a question about it, “Read the rules.”

  13. Russell

    “If someone wants to leak and undermine against a leader who has the majority support of the rank and file, they will fail.”

    But if the leaking and undermining affects the leader’s/party’s standing in the polls, how long will that support last?

  14. Mindy

    @monkeytypist – leaks are not to win the support of the membership, they are to make it difficult for the current leader to stay leader. They are to cause disruption and leadershit to enable the leaker (or their ally) to come out as the only one who can lead the party and win the popular vote and thus the leadership again.

  15. paul burns

    Chris @ 11,
    True, but on ABC TV News this morning all viewers saw was the headline scrolled across the bottom of the screen time and time again, for more than an hour at least.
    Most people probably would not have the time or inclination to chase it up the way I did.

  16. monkeytypist

    @mindy I think we are in agreement on some things here. Yes, leaks aren’t to win the support of the membership. They are predicated on a model where caucus alone selects the leader, and the leader is elected or deposed on the basis of bad polls and bad headlines.

    Setting up a contest where caucus alone doesn’t elect the leader means everything changes. Now, the leader is the leader because they have the support of the rank and file, not because of polling numbers. Leaking may change polling numbers but (rank and file members being people who pay close attention to politics) it’s not likely to create a positive impression among the rank and file.

    If Kevin had run for leader right after having destabilised Gillard (or, for that matter Beazley) to force a vote, would rank and file members reward him for his leaks? Would he have won a ballot of members? Of course not.

    I think you are treating the members as mugs in this. Caucus members’ behaviour in supporting destabilisers is (somewhat) understandable: they fear bad headlines, they fear bad polls, because it means they might lose their jobs.

    That’s not what motivates rank and file people when they are voting. Rank and file people care about who will represent the party well. A cloak-and-dagger process (leaking) doesn’t work if it’s going to lead to an open process (a ballot). Particularly not when the vote of rank and file members put that person in the position in the first place.

    The leadership doesn’t belong to the caucus any more, which means the tactics used to take control of the caucus aren’t the ones that will work to take control of the party. A more likely scenario is that someone who is not involved in leaking and destabilisation will appeal to the membership, say “stop these stupid games” and when their support.

  17. Darryl Rosin

    The ABC is full of journalists, just like the Courier-Mail. It can’t be trusted.

    d

  18. Helen Davidson

    ([email protected])

    No first up opposition leader after his party lost office has ever subsequently become PM (at least not since world war one). The position is entirely sacrificial

    Do the ALP’s new rules still require 75% of caucus to spill a leader? If so, the position may be a lot less sacrificial than it used to be.

    Chris @ 11

    Are they just talking about charisma? Rudd, Gillard have it, even Abbott does to some extent. Albanese probably doesn’t. How many percentage points is charisma in a leader worth at an election?

    If it’s charisma, how do you explain John Howard’s success?

  19. paul burns

    Helen D @ 18,
    Howard had his teeth fixed, his skin treated, his hair fluffed, got gold-rimmed glasses and I’m pretty sure he went and had intensive acting and voice lessons. Or the power just grew on him. Power suits evil men. Certainly the Howard of his PM-ship was not the hopeless case of the Howard-Peacock years.
    Also, in formal TV situations, Gillard seems to have woodened up, but with some intensive media training she would have got over that, and back to her natural self. Howard didn’t even have that.
    And FWIW, I think Albo does have charisma on camera and in the House, and nowadays, that’s the only two places it counts.

  20. Chris

    If it’s charisma, how do you explain John Howard’s success?

    I don’t think charisma is everything, just that it has an influence. And as PB mentions above Howard did do some work on it while in office.

    And FWIW, I think Albo does have charisma on camera and in the House, and nowadays, that’s the only two places it counts.

    Except for politics tragics I don’t think House matters at all now. Performance in question time is pretty much irrelevant for most of the public.

    Also, in formal TV situations, Gillard seems to have woodened up, but with some intensive media training she would have got over that, and back to her natural self.

    It might just have been a result of too much media training….

  21. Mindy

    You are right monkeytypist, the rank and file are generally more switched on than the general populace. I was somewhat conflating the two.

    @PB and Chris – the difference between Gillard being interviewed by Anne Summers and in a press conference was stark. If she had been as warm and chatty in press conferences as she was in Sydney things would have been different I think. Perhaps not enough to save her, but different.

  22. paul burns

    It might just have been a result of too much media training….

    Or nerves. Even Laurence Olivier with all his experience on and ff camera got stage-fright, at the age of 65, when he played James Tyrone in Long Day’s Journey into Night at the British National Theatre . He both fluffed and froze. Mind you, it is, IIRC the longest role in the Eugene O’Neill corpus. And Gillard wasn’t really a media personality till she became PM.

  23. Casey

    If it’s charisma, how do you explain John Howard’s success?

    You don’t have to necessarily be liked, you just have to be respected and make people feel secure (Machiavelli The Prince).

  24. paul burns

    Correction: Actually, IIRC, Mourning Becomes Electra is longer. Of encyclopedic length. (I think that’s the one where you get what each character is saying, followed by what they actually were thinking while they were speaking.) But a discussion of O’Neill’s great tragedies, while perhaps apt in the context of the ALPs history, is way off thread. So no more on that.

  25. Mindy

    I think both Albo and Shorten would be very effective as Opposition Leader. All they have to do is keep a lid on leadership speculation which will hopefully diminish with the new rules in place and make statements about the government whenever reports ask silly questions about leadershit.

    In terms of electability – again as long as they can keep a lid on leadershit I think both of them will be seen as electable by the populace. Especially if Tony keeps running away from the media. Having someone who will front up, answer questions and generally have a go will be a real foil to Tony’s inadequacies.

    When will the results be known?

  26. Casey
  27. Mindy

    Thanks Casey. A couple more weeks then or thereabouts.

  28. zorronsky

    The true test of the challenge and who is best suited to lead wont be apparent until the Coalition and Murdoch zero in on both candidates, regardless of who wins.
    Expect leadershit intimations galore and watch for the sleeze machine to delve through the social media comments of the followers of the candidates for ammunition.

  29. mindy

    The SMH is tipping a Shorten win because the Right has the numbers in Caucus. Rudd is expected to vote for Albo. No word on who Gillard might support.

    Interestingly they say that only 25 000 of the 44 0000 able to vote have returned their ballots. Let’s hope the rest are in the mail.

  30. Ronson Dalby

    Does Gillard get a vote other than the postal one ordinary members get, Mindy? As Gillard is no longer an MP would she be eligible to attend a Caucus meeting?

    As an outsider, after reading the SMH article, I can’t help but think the exercise in allowing the general members a vote was nothing more than tokenism.

  31. Ronson Dalby

    Now that I’ve finished my first coffee on what could be a horror day here in the Blue Mountains (and elsewhere in NSW)*, I wish the SMH story hadn’t been at the top of the page with the headline, “Labor MPs expected to thwart people’s choice.”

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/bill-shorten-tipped-in-tight-race-for-labor-leadership-20131009-2v8q6.html

    * “The Bureau of Meteorology has revised up its Sydney forecast for Thursday to 39 degrees, which would be an October record.”

    http://www.smh.com.au/environment/weather/sydney-weather-forecast-revised-to-39-degrees-20131009-2v854.html

  32. paul burns

    The ALP seems to think all the votes will be in by the closing date. If not, well, then it will be a real disaster. People will think there’s something fishy, especially if Shorten wins with an incomplete popular vote. – the Right up to their usual tricks.